In my email I put forward two horses that never got a mention ... until their Irish counterpart came on the line. In both cases he gave a positive to my selections. I should add, they were 40.0 on Betfair at the time, but that was before the withdrawal of Snow Fairy.
I am not sorry she is not running, but disappointed she could not take up the French alternative. Although there would be no guarantee of the strong pace there, but if she goes for the Eclipse it should be okay with two pacemakers in the field. It will be a tough ask first time out, but if Workforce and So You Think assume the race is between themselves they could be in for a shock?
Saturday:
3.35 Curragh Pretty - Polly Stakes - 10f Group 1: CHRYSANTHEMUM
Now for those regular readers(he chuckles to himself) you will know I had this in my top 3 for the Epsom Oaks - see blog Oaks preview - but did not expect her to run as this was a more practical alternative, as she had her first run of the season only 19 days before. Not only do I see that as the right choice, she now has the added bonus of her favoured soft ground.
Had the ground been suitable for Snow Fairy, then I would have accepted that this selection would probably only have 3rd place to aim for, but as I am confident she will finish in front of Misty For Me, the EW was still a good thing.
Aoife Alainn is having her first run, but may have been flattered by the subsequent run of the runner up, Antare, who is clearly better this season than she was going in to that race? However, the soft ground will suit.
The soft ground will do Midday no favours, even if he is 'better than ever'.
Misty For Me will handle the ground, but just look at her program getting to this race; a hard race at Newmarket, followed by a comfortable win at the Curragh, but 19 days later a hard race at Epsom where her stamina gave out. Not ideal for a filly taking on a top class older horses for the first time?
On my ratings Chrysanthemum has about 10lbs to find to finish in front of Misty For Me. Not only will the step up in trip bring improvement, you also have a fitter horse than last time, and the added bonus of suitable ground. For a horse that has done nothing but improve on every run I think she has every chance of overturning the stats for 3yo's winning this race.
(Sunday)
3.50 Curragh - Irish Derby -12f Group 1: DUNBOYNE EXPRESS
There is an element of doubt over the trip for this colt, but there is plenty of stamina on the dam's side, and he does like the soft. However, the biggest positive for me, as in the race above, is that he did not race at Epsom. Whilst, many horses do come on here and do okay, for almost all of these you can see that the Epsom Derby was a hard race, and they did not win.
Carlton House put in a big effort which petered out close home.
Memphis Tennessee made the stop start running and that was not good enough.
Native Khan was behind, may not have stayed, and had a hard race at Newmarket before that. May not run because of the ground, which will not do Seville and favours either.
Sevill, seemingly did not handle the track, or the way the race was run. The fact remains, he has yet to put up a decent performance in his 3yo career.
Treasure Beach is the only one that comes out one that comes out of the race with progressive form, and not taken to the limits in doing so.
Roderick O'Connor comes on from disappointing in France after winning the Irish 2000gns, in which my selection was in arrears. That was over 11f in soft, what chance over 12f in soft?? He also looks like being the front runner for the stable. He is unlikely to get an easy lead this time, as the others will hope he will bring stamina into question regards regards Carlton House.
That leaves it to Treasure Beach to do battle with Dunboyne Express, and I favour the fresher horse.
Love to have spent more time on this, but Saturday duties call.
I think both are cracking EW selections, and have a very good chance of winning.
have a good day ...
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