Thursday 16 June 2011

ASCOT - Friday

Rain on rain ... that will shake the form about, and my ratings unfortunately. I am beginning to look forward to Sunday already.
No point in spending time analysing any particular race, or indeed trying to work out what will handle testing conditions best. So ....

Ascot 2.30: TEOLANE
Top-rated on the RP list, and the trainer knows how to win here.
SWEET CHILLI is my top, but as with most, on different surface.
SAJWAH could improve the Pyman's theory(not a typo, not the horse, but the theory) ... that the sire gets winners at Ascot.

Ascot 3.05: NATHANIEL
This may handle the ground better than most, which is a plus.
MIJHAAR will be popular, but this is a big step up in class.
WORLD DOMINATION has already tripped up when raised in class. However, that was a muddling race in a very slow time. If he handles conditions he could be a big threat.

Ascot 3.45: TOGETHER
I would so love this horse to win for his sheer consistent level of running, and has a major chance given his best rating came last time out. Course should suit if it comes to a battle.
CLAIOMH SOLAIS was behind the above and was the lowest rated horse involved in the finish, by 10lbs+, so it may be a mistake to take that form too literally? It has improved, but it just kept on after making the running, not threatening to win.
THEYSKIN'S THEORY is a bigger danger because she is most likely to handle conditions, as well as being a top 2yo who has won well this season.
The French pair deserve a mention too, as they should handle the soft.

Ascot 4.25: WAYDOWNSOUTH
Top-rated from his last run behind Viscount Nelson. If the latter was a reliable guide he would have a chance ... Alas, he isn't, and he is a top handicapper who tried his luck in a Listed event. Combining the two here, so could bring a shock result from a low weight?
GREEN DESTINY, BEACH FIRE, and RIGHT STEP also have claims from the bottom of this handicap, as indeed does the top-weight FORTE DEI MARMI -(EDIT: non-runner)
Very tricky race under changing conditions. A lucky pin might be useful though?

Ascot 5.00: NAMIBIAN
Has a chance, but it is a very tricky race if REGENT STREET fails to perform. The latter has top Group form with Recital and yesterday's winner, Banipire, who he beat the time before.

Ascot 5.30: FREE FOR ALL
A good winner on fast ground at Lingfield is where he gets top billing, but this could not be more different.
So many others that have a chance on best form, and some on these conditions. But then there is the draw factor, which I have got consistently wrong all week, so I am not entering an alternative ...stick with the pin!

Have a good day...

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