It looks like being a cracking start to the meeting, so here is my take on it.
Ascot 2.30 - FRANKEL
Barring mishap or injury, there is no point in looking beyond him over a mile.
EXCELLEBRATION - looks set for the runner's up berth, again! I have tried to see how team Ballydoyle can do much other than what they have tried already. A couple of possibilities; A - find a use for WINDSOR PALACE, because frankly he looks a bit redundant here, unless he tries to bustle things up at the halfway stage, thereby making Fronkel go earlier than the 2f marker, and then hope is stable companion can come with a late burst?; B- drop Excellebration right out the back and again try and hold his run until well inside the final furlong.
Both seem pretty futile given that Frankel finishes mile races strongly, has a turn of foot off a strong pace, and has few weaknesses in the temperament department.
Helmet could well be one of those fighting for the minor honours if they have him at his peak now?
Ascot 3.05 - ORTENSIA
You have to admire these Aussie horses. They rarely fail to do the business, especially first time of asking over here. Despite being a 7yo now, Ortensia seems to be in the form of her life, and come from behind style of racing will suit this race too, as there is bound to be a fast pace.
The draw may be of slight concern, but in all likelyhood they will come down the middle. Most of the pace is drawn high, but the stands rail on drying ground tends to be a bit slower, and they do have TANGERINE TREES to do the business in the middle.
Now BATED BREATH looks to have grown into a proper racehorse at last, and is my top-rated, I will take him to give the favourite the most to do. If they avoid any showers prior to this race, I do not think the ground will be an issue. However, should the pace on the stands side give those there a big advantage, I can see MASAMAH running a big race. A course winner, which is a big positive, and with a run under his belt I think he is well worth a small each way at a big price. Only third rated behind SOLE POWER, but as that one needs very fast ground to be at his best, and does not appear to like the Ascot turf as much as some, I don't see him making the frame.
I would also like to give a mention to JOY AND FUN, as the main overseas raider with a high draw could also be a danger. At 9 years of age he is a rival to Borderlescott as a stable's favourite? He is also at the top of his game right now, so could pose a real threat late on.
Ascot 3.45 - FENCING
Not too confident about my choice from three to beat the O'Brien favourite POWER, who could show he is better than his current rating suggests. Fencing carries my second highest rating, and given the rushed prep for the Guineas, followed shortly by the run in the Dante, where he appeared not to stay, I will wipe the slate and hope he shows the promise of his 2yo days in much better light, after a little break.
I also like another of the Gosden trio, GREGORIAN. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is a real plus at the moment. He has a bit to find in form, but both trips to France did not work out so well, so back on home soil and a straight track he should be there or thereabouts.
MOST IMPROVED also failed in his mission to France, but should be back on track now. However, like Gregorian, he has a high draw to consider on the round mile, which will require some luck in running?
LUCAYAN, the French raider, is also drawn out in the car park with the above two, but is a strong finisher if he takes to Ascot.
The reason I am opposing Power is although drawn low, I can see the Ballydoyle tactics machine cominto into play here. WROTE who is drawn widest of all, and I expect him being pushed up early to take a prominent position and keep the pace very strong into the straight. Power will drop to the rear and hope to come through like he did at the Curragh. Problem here is the other horses should be in better shape now, it is up to him to show he has improved too?
I would love to stick with HERMIVAL, but I fear he will get sucked into the trap of hold his good draw position early on. Not only that, the drying will be against him. However should they cop a heavy shower, the scrub the above, as course and going will suit better than most.
Ascot 4.25 - HEAVY METAL
That is my kind of music. Like Topspeed in the RP, I have him improving on his grade rating at Epsom on a day that had the best grade from ones I can rate. Epsom and Ascot are poles apart as far as track configuration goes, but he previously had won at Newmarket, and before that won on good to soft. This race has a habit of throwing up big price winners, and my feeling is the favourite, SIR PRANCEALOT and the second favourite DAWN APPROACH, are both a bit vulnerable.
The former was impressive in the manner he won at Sandown, but the time was pretty modest. Whether he can produce the same turn of foot with the quality of this field is the question he has to answer.
The Irish horse does not appear to have beaten anything special in any of it races, but that is not unusual. The trainer knows how good he is, so if the money comes for him as post time gets near, you can sure he is better than the bare form.
I was taken with LINES OF BATTLE's win on Irish 1000gns day. Needs to improve on bare form but looks the type to do so. LEITRE MOR was beaten that day and probably needs quicker ground to reverse placings, even if he has improved in the meantime.
ARTIGIANO also put up a good time at a modest level, but from a stable who are quite capable of knowing a good horse when they see one ... Frankie is on board!
FUNKY SOUL BROTHER ran in a good race at York, but like the favourite, the time was not that great. Stablemate ENGLISHMAN rates slightly higher, but both need to improve to get more than a place.
Among those I have no rating for IS CHRISTOFORO CULOMBO, who, on jockey bookings appears to be the O'Brien No 1, but with a similar shared ownership it probably not that important. Joseph O'Brien rode both to victory, but I think dad might have had the final say who he rides? My preference is with the Ryan Moore mount.
Ascot 5.00 - COSIMO DE MEDICI
Once again I think the favourite, AL KHAWANEEJ is a tad over-rated. I have not gone through this field in great depth, which is usually a mistake, but I was taken by my selection's win at Newmarket which at least puts him in the race on favourable handicapping terms.
The danger will come from ELYAADI who has raced in better class races, including one here behind Swingkeel. Beyond these two it is pretty wide open.
Ascot 5.35 - DYLANBURU
To be honest I did not look much beyond this one's second to Cay Verde last time out. There is nothing at first glance of that quality that stands out, and if he has shown genuine improvement he should certainly figure in the first three.
LYRIC ACE probably deserves the favourite status, as he beat Chilworth Icon at Kempton last time. That was the horse that Heavy Metal(selection for the Coventry earlier) nearly beat next time out, so clearly smart. However, all weather Kempton and uphill Ascot will require a whole lot more.
PAY FREEZE on the other hand has very good form on his York win and is the main danger to my selection.
And that is day one at Ascot ... have a good day.
Tuesday 19 June 2012
Monday 18 June 2012
Frankel, and the secret of CAMELOT
With the Irish Derby in mind I think it is time to reveal the Ballydoyle the secret behind their winning machine.
The general perception is that when a pacemaker is in a race, to quote A. O'Brien, it makes it fair for every one to have a true run race ...
All is not as it seems. Ballydoyle puts them there to win races.
Let me explain:
Take Bullet Train and Frankel last time. Bullet Train set a strong, but steady pace with Frankel following behind. Frankel wins comfortably.
In both Classics involving Camelot pacemaker sets the pace, but Camelot is way out the back, only coming through late on. Camelot wins.
The difference, not only with above 2000gns and Derby, but the Newmarket 1000gns and the Irish 2000gns as well, that unlike Frankel's race which produced the fastest winning time on the day(relative to their respective standard times), those 4 races involving the O'Brien pacemakers did not. I will admit that Frankel being the highest rated horse in the world would be entitled to do that, and that Camelot was the quickest at Epsom with conditions allowance added(on my std times that is, note)
What does it matter you may ask? In the Irish 1000gns it was the relatively fastest race on the card, but the winner did not come from the Irish stable. Homecoming Queen set the pace on faster ground but could not hold on. I think the Newmarket race was not meant to happen the way it did, but Ryan Moore made two decisive moves that upset the entire field. He made a quick move early on while the other jockeys were waiting for a pacemaker. That put him 4 or 5 lengths clear, and kept on. Then, knowing the others were expecting him to be coming back to the field closer to home, but the second trick Moore pulled off by pushing on before the 'bushes' and got a few more 'easy' lengths out of them. That included stablemate Maybe. Now they have a top 2yo in Maybe who has missed out on Classic success, and I think without the Moore tricks she may well of won it.
In Ireland Moore was not available to ride Homecoming Queen, and the jockey just set a straightforward fast pace. To be fair, it had to be faster than at Newmarket because the going was quicker and the others could keep up better. However, she simply had nothing left and fell back to 5th. Despite that, because I rate by time, she still ran to her previous rating in my book.
So that is the secret that Ballydoyle have picked up, I believe, since they were told they were not racing So You Think to his best by the Australians, who were winning easily with him down under.
What you don't do is put a pacemaker in order to set the race up for the stable's expected winner, OR, more importantly, for any other horse to win - No, that would be making it a fair race for everyone?
What you do do is set a pace that destroys the rest of the field, because while they are following the pace, 'their horse' is simply getting into a rythym that means they can pass the tiring field. That also explains the comparatively slow overall times?
The key to it is they(Ballydoyle) decide not only who is going to make the pace, but more importantly, train it with that in mind. They want a horse that is still taking the field along to inside the last 2 furlongs. Daddy Long Legs did this to perfection, a 10f horse probably trained for this race as a 6 or 7f runner, knowing its stamina would keep it going for a bit longer. Astrology did a similar thing in the Derby. They do not go off at a lightning fast pace, but just enough so to keep rest of the field interested so they never get a breather in.
It is so close to 'not running to give the horse a chance of winning', so you could put up the argument to have 'pacemakers' declared as such, and therefore not able to win the race? I say 'close' to that mark, but Homecoming Queen is always the argument against, and why the field cannot just ignore an O'Brien pacemaker? That is also key. They do put very good horses in to do the pace, and it does not matter if their pacemaker wins because the field has given it too much of a lead, because it is usually the same group who own them.
However, if you have a horse is running over his right trip, and has the class to finish his race, then just sit in behind whoever is the O'Brien stable fancy at the back, and go when it goes, because they clearly do not have a great turn of foot, or at the very least, are not trained with that in mind ... ?
I should say I will always have trouble in rating these O'Brien horses because of the slow overall times. Camelot I only rate at 120, not because he wasn't quick (at Epsom), but on that day against his OR of 121, it wasn't a standout time to rating. The 106 OR of the second tends to back that up? Which is why I differ from his BHA rating, or, for that matter, compared to Frankel's 139, and that achieved first time out! Camelot is probably the best of the early season 3yo's, but I would like him to be tested in a really strong race. Time will tell if that changes when he takes on the older horses.
This analysis does not only apply to these horses. So You Think has been beaten by horses who can keep enough back despite the way he runs, with or without a pacemaker. He keeps the field up to their work himself. A very good horse, and uses his ability that does not include a devastating turn of foot, to the maximum.
So how will Ballydoyle beat Frankel? They could try and upset his pacemaker, encouraging him to go faster than is necessary to create a fast winning performance from Frankel. The problem there is, as was seen in the 2000gns, over a mile Frankel can go at 6f pace and still have enough left to see him home. So short of physically knocking him out of his stride, I cannot see that working. When it comes to 10f races that might be different. However, before they tackle the extra distance I think they will want to be sure they can 'race' with him. By that I mean, go into races with the intention of winning. Their one tactic at the moment is to use his blistering speed over a mile. A fast run race that he can produce is better that anything else can do, so he wins.
Not that simple over 10f. If they can get him to relax over the first 4f or 5f, and then 'race' the second half, I believe we will then see Frankel as a real majestic racehorse, as opposed to being the quickest miler/greatest miler around. Indeed, if he truly settles, 12f would not be impossible, such is his unbelievable talent.
To answer my question as to how they beat Frankel with their current tactics, over a mile they won't. However, don't be surprised if if they have So You Think trained up to do the pacemaking at Ascot on Tuesday, in a similar way to Daddy Long Legs did in the Irish 2000gns. Not a horse you could ignore out in front because of his stamina, but I doubt he will have the legs of Frankel at the finish.
At the time of writing(Sunday,17th June), the O'Brien have a couple going for the Prix Diane at Chantilly ... if you can work out who is doing the 'setting up' for who? Kissed did win from the front on her last start, at a lower level but over this trip. Up was behind the likely favourite last time over 8f, and came from the rear. I think they will reverse roles today, with Up being at the head of affairs, and hoping Kissed up good enough win. They may of course let both run to their strengths and try for a 1-2 ? I doubt if either will beat Beauty Parlour if she stays the extra 2.5f okay.
There will be many future examples I am sure. It may be worth opposing any of these if you know your selection will be held up?
Postscript - Beauty Parlour only second, BUT ....after Kissed set the strong pace, and Up (as per plan) was held up at the back ... and so too did the winner Valra. Admittedly, Up did not get the clearest of runs, but it does add weight to what I said above about the way to beat this tactical ploy of the Irish stable? Beauty Parlour deserves a lot of credit though, as she was right up with the pace throughout.
It is not quite so easy when they put in more than two runners though. However, the Irish Derby looks for all the world a penalty kick for Camelot, I wonder if any trainer will try the above counter tactic?
Monday edit:
pps - No SO YOU THINK on Tuesday, they are going with WINDSOR PALACE. I find that amusing as I think Bullet Train would beat that in a head to head race. I guess they hope to stir FRANKEL up before the pacemaker gives way and so make him commit too early? However, not only Bullet Train keep up his gallop for long enough, EXCELLEBRATION was not able to go with FRANKEL, so what chance has Windsor Palace got of getting past?
The general perception is that when a pacemaker is in a race, to quote A. O'Brien, it makes it fair for every one to have a true run race ...
All is not as it seems. Ballydoyle puts them there to win races.
Let me explain:
Take Bullet Train and Frankel last time. Bullet Train set a strong, but steady pace with Frankel following behind. Frankel wins comfortably.
In both Classics involving Camelot pacemaker sets the pace, but Camelot is way out the back, only coming through late on. Camelot wins.
The difference, not only with above 2000gns and Derby, but the Newmarket 1000gns and the Irish 2000gns as well, that unlike Frankel's race which produced the fastest winning time on the day(relative to their respective standard times), those 4 races involving the O'Brien pacemakers did not. I will admit that Frankel being the highest rated horse in the world would be entitled to do that, and that Camelot was the quickest at Epsom with conditions allowance added(on my std times that is, note)
What does it matter you may ask? In the Irish 1000gns it was the relatively fastest race on the card, but the winner did not come from the Irish stable. Homecoming Queen set the pace on faster ground but could not hold on. I think the Newmarket race was not meant to happen the way it did, but Ryan Moore made two decisive moves that upset the entire field. He made a quick move early on while the other jockeys were waiting for a pacemaker. That put him 4 or 5 lengths clear, and kept on. Then, knowing the others were expecting him to be coming back to the field closer to home, but the second trick Moore pulled off by pushing on before the 'bushes' and got a few more 'easy' lengths out of them. That included stablemate Maybe. Now they have a top 2yo in Maybe who has missed out on Classic success, and I think without the Moore tricks she may well of won it.
In Ireland Moore was not available to ride Homecoming Queen, and the jockey just set a straightforward fast pace. To be fair, it had to be faster than at Newmarket because the going was quicker and the others could keep up better. However, she simply had nothing left and fell back to 5th. Despite that, because I rate by time, she still ran to her previous rating in my book.
So that is the secret that Ballydoyle have picked up, I believe, since they were told they were not racing So You Think to his best by the Australians, who were winning easily with him down under.
What you don't do is put a pacemaker in order to set the race up for the stable's expected winner, OR, more importantly, for any other horse to win - No, that would be making it a fair race for everyone?
What you do do is set a pace that destroys the rest of the field, because while they are following the pace, 'their horse' is simply getting into a rythym that means they can pass the tiring field. That also explains the comparatively slow overall times?
The key to it is they(Ballydoyle) decide not only who is going to make the pace, but more importantly, train it with that in mind. They want a horse that is still taking the field along to inside the last 2 furlongs. Daddy Long Legs did this to perfection, a 10f horse probably trained for this race as a 6 or 7f runner, knowing its stamina would keep it going for a bit longer. Astrology did a similar thing in the Derby. They do not go off at a lightning fast pace, but just enough so to keep rest of the field interested so they never get a breather in.
It is so close to 'not running to give the horse a chance of winning', so you could put up the argument to have 'pacemakers' declared as such, and therefore not able to win the race? I say 'close' to that mark, but Homecoming Queen is always the argument against, and why the field cannot just ignore an O'Brien pacemaker? That is also key. They do put very good horses in to do the pace, and it does not matter if their pacemaker wins because the field has given it too much of a lead, because it is usually the same group who own them.
However, if you have a horse is running over his right trip, and has the class to finish his race, then just sit in behind whoever is the O'Brien stable fancy at the back, and go when it goes, because they clearly do not have a great turn of foot, or at the very least, are not trained with that in mind ... ?
I should say I will always have trouble in rating these O'Brien horses because of the slow overall times. Camelot I only rate at 120, not because he wasn't quick (at Epsom), but on that day against his OR of 121, it wasn't a standout time to rating. The 106 OR of the second tends to back that up? Which is why I differ from his BHA rating, or, for that matter, compared to Frankel's 139, and that achieved first time out! Camelot is probably the best of the early season 3yo's, but I would like him to be tested in a really strong race. Time will tell if that changes when he takes on the older horses.
This analysis does not only apply to these horses. So You Think has been beaten by horses who can keep enough back despite the way he runs, with or without a pacemaker. He keeps the field up to their work himself. A very good horse, and uses his ability that does not include a devastating turn of foot, to the maximum.
So how will Ballydoyle beat Frankel? They could try and upset his pacemaker, encouraging him to go faster than is necessary to create a fast winning performance from Frankel. The problem there is, as was seen in the 2000gns, over a mile Frankel can go at 6f pace and still have enough left to see him home. So short of physically knocking him out of his stride, I cannot see that working. When it comes to 10f races that might be different. However, before they tackle the extra distance I think they will want to be sure they can 'race' with him. By that I mean, go into races with the intention of winning. Their one tactic at the moment is to use his blistering speed over a mile. A fast run race that he can produce is better that anything else can do, so he wins.
Not that simple over 10f. If they can get him to relax over the first 4f or 5f, and then 'race' the second half, I believe we will then see Frankel as a real majestic racehorse, as opposed to being the quickest miler/greatest miler around. Indeed, if he truly settles, 12f would not be impossible, such is his unbelievable talent.
To answer my question as to how they beat Frankel with their current tactics, over a mile they won't. However, don't be surprised if if they have So You Think trained up to do the pacemaking at Ascot on Tuesday, in a similar way to Daddy Long Legs did in the Irish 2000gns. Not a horse you could ignore out in front because of his stamina, but I doubt he will have the legs of Frankel at the finish.
At the time of writing(Sunday,17th June), the O'Brien have a couple going for the Prix Diane at Chantilly ... if you can work out who is doing the 'setting up' for who? Kissed did win from the front on her last start, at a lower level but over this trip. Up was behind the likely favourite last time over 8f, and came from the rear. I think they will reverse roles today, with Up being at the head of affairs, and hoping Kissed up good enough win. They may of course let both run to their strengths and try for a 1-2 ? I doubt if either will beat Beauty Parlour if she stays the extra 2.5f okay.
There will be many future examples I am sure. It may be worth opposing any of these if you know your selection will be held up?
Postscript - Beauty Parlour only second, BUT ....after Kissed set the strong pace, and Up (as per plan) was held up at the back ... and so too did the winner Valra. Admittedly, Up did not get the clearest of runs, but it does add weight to what I said above about the way to beat this tactical ploy of the Irish stable? Beauty Parlour deserves a lot of credit though, as she was right up with the pace throughout.
It is not quite so easy when they put in more than two runners though. However, the Irish Derby looks for all the world a penalty kick for Camelot, I wonder if any trainer will try the above counter tactic?
Monday edit:
pps - No SO YOU THINK on Tuesday, they are going with WINDSOR PALACE. I find that amusing as I think Bullet Train would beat that in a head to head race. I guess they hope to stir FRANKEL up before the pacemaker gives way and so make him commit too early? However, not only Bullet Train keep up his gallop for long enough, EXCELLEBRATION was not able to go with FRANKEL, so what chance has Windsor Palace got of getting past?
Friday 1 June 2012
Review and Preview - part 2(Derby)
Short blog today.
Curragh Irish 2000gns.
POWER won it well, but ... the time was very modest. Only the 4th best(comparatively) on the card, made to look even worse an hour later when the average h'cap over the same distance was quicker! I do not know what goes on in these races, but the Ballydoyle 'mob-handed' approach seem to be able to upset the the rhythm of a race very successfully? Of course, they have the advantage of knowing in advance what is going happen. In this race Daddy Long Legs looked to take them along at a fast, but consistent pace right up to the final furlong. He was entitled to fade. But how is it the time was so slow? You have to assume, without sectional timing, that he dragged the field along too fast and allowed Power, who probably has a high cruising speed but no exceptional turn of foot, to come through when every thing else had shot their bolts? That is with the exception of the complete outsider, FOXTROT ROMEO, who came from off the pace for 2nd, and REPLY, another O'Brien runner, who had suspect stamina get 3rd spot.
The presence of the 2nd backs up that, form-wise, this result is suspect even if the time did not. The only horse I would take from the race is REPLY as at least he did prove he stays.
Conclusion - Jockeys must learn to ride their own race, and not get drawn into what suits other horses!
EPSOM OAKS
I am with John Gosden here. It was a messy race, and unnecessarily so. Whatever you say about THE FUGUE. you can treble it as far as my ew selection, COQUET was concerned. She was alongside The Fugue when both had to snatch up. Then in the straight, The Fugue went to the outside and Coquet was left to go to the inside off the retreating pacemaker ... for a moment their was a gap, but it closed as the tired horse rolled back on to the rail. Luckily, Havlin was able to snatch her up for the second time, avoiding what could have been quite a nasty incident. From then on it looked hopeless. Last and only 2 furlongs to go. Amazingly, with a clear run she finish as well as anything to get within in 2 lengths of MAYBE. With a clearer runthroughout, who knows, but she is my horse to take out of the race.
The winner, WAS, got a clean run through on the inside and won it well. Not overly chuffed at the interview afterwards ... 'Yes, we thought she would run well(£20,000 each way @ 20/1 anybody?) .. given she had won a maiden, finished 3rd in a modest Group 3, and came into racing the outsider of the party of 5, with only the usual stable comment ..'Ah sure, they are all beautifully bred fillies' beforehand! Nice one.
Two other points. J. O'Brien got 4 days for squeezing out KAILANA early on, quite rightly, but D. Holland did similar on SHIROCCO STAR as she made her run from the outside, which I think affected THE FUGUE's chances, but no action was taken there.
The other point that came over loud and clear from the BBC team, and that was a pronounced bias towards Frankie Dettori and a big negative against M. Barcelona. It stemmed from the gossip that suggested that the former was being squeezed out in favour of the latter, but as we know, Dettori is the media darling isn't he?
Commentator McGrath had Barcelona riding 3 or 4 deep in an earlier race, which got exaggerated to 4 or 5 on the re-run .. In fact he was never more than 3 wide, but given the alternatives of dropping further back, or pressing the button early and hope to get in tighter, sit and suffer was probably the best choice when you are drawn wide. Jimmy Fortune got away with being 'trapped' on the outside' on the disappointing favourite in the first? Then of course there was the repeat showing of the stand up in the stirrups on Pour Moi and Monterosso that was roundly criticised by one and all, but of course Frankie can do his flying dismounts at every opportunity? I know one is during the race the other after, but the jockeys do it because they are confident in their ability to pull it off. I have yet to see Michael Barcelona have the slightest wobble when standing in the stirrups, just because after two great wins the emotion takes over before the line, it seems he is condemned for life.
Oh yes, the short blog
EPSOM DERBY.
CAMELOT well clear on ratings. If he stays, he should win.
There are 4 horses at the front rank in the betting, but on this season's ratings there is only about 4lbs between 6 of them, excluding the favourite. I thought BONFIRE probably had the most improvement in him, given his preparation. MICKDAAM is a big price, being so close on ratings, but whether he can make as much improvement from his earlier run as the others remains to be seen. THOUGHT WORTHY is one that could well run into a place. Let us just hope it is a clean race?
That's it I have had my rant. Have a good day ...
Curragh Irish 2000gns.
POWER won it well, but ... the time was very modest. Only the 4th best(comparatively) on the card, made to look even worse an hour later when the average h'cap over the same distance was quicker! I do not know what goes on in these races, but the Ballydoyle 'mob-handed' approach seem to be able to upset the the rhythm of a race very successfully? Of course, they have the advantage of knowing in advance what is going happen. In this race Daddy Long Legs looked to take them along at a fast, but consistent pace right up to the final furlong. He was entitled to fade. But how is it the time was so slow? You have to assume, without sectional timing, that he dragged the field along too fast and allowed Power, who probably has a high cruising speed but no exceptional turn of foot, to come through when every thing else had shot their bolts? That is with the exception of the complete outsider, FOXTROT ROMEO, who came from off the pace for 2nd, and REPLY, another O'Brien runner, who had suspect stamina get 3rd spot.
The presence of the 2nd backs up that, form-wise, this result is suspect even if the time did not. The only horse I would take from the race is REPLY as at least he did prove he stays.
Conclusion - Jockeys must learn to ride their own race, and not get drawn into what suits other horses!
EPSOM OAKS
I am with John Gosden here. It was a messy race, and unnecessarily so. Whatever you say about THE FUGUE. you can treble it as far as my ew selection, COQUET was concerned. She was alongside The Fugue when both had to snatch up. Then in the straight, The Fugue went to the outside and Coquet was left to go to the inside off the retreating pacemaker ... for a moment their was a gap, but it closed as the tired horse rolled back on to the rail. Luckily, Havlin was able to snatch her up for the second time, avoiding what could have been quite a nasty incident. From then on it looked hopeless. Last and only 2 furlongs to go. Amazingly, with a clear run she finish as well as anything to get within in 2 lengths of MAYBE. With a clearer runthroughout, who knows, but she is my horse to take out of the race.
The winner, WAS, got a clean run through on the inside and won it well. Not overly chuffed at the interview afterwards ... 'Yes, we thought she would run well(£20,000 each way @ 20/1 anybody?) .. given she had won a maiden, finished 3rd in a modest Group 3, and came into racing the outsider of the party of 5, with only the usual stable comment ..'Ah sure, they are all beautifully bred fillies' beforehand! Nice one.
Two other points. J. O'Brien got 4 days for squeezing out KAILANA early on, quite rightly, but D. Holland did similar on SHIROCCO STAR as she made her run from the outside, which I think affected THE FUGUE's chances, but no action was taken there.
The other point that came over loud and clear from the BBC team, and that was a pronounced bias towards Frankie Dettori and a big negative against M. Barcelona. It stemmed from the gossip that suggested that the former was being squeezed out in favour of the latter, but as we know, Dettori is the media darling isn't he?
Commentator McGrath had Barcelona riding 3 or 4 deep in an earlier race, which got exaggerated to 4 or 5 on the re-run .. In fact he was never more than 3 wide, but given the alternatives of dropping further back, or pressing the button early and hope to get in tighter, sit and suffer was probably the best choice when you are drawn wide. Jimmy Fortune got away with being 'trapped' on the outside' on the disappointing favourite in the first? Then of course there was the repeat showing of the stand up in the stirrups on Pour Moi and Monterosso that was roundly criticised by one and all, but of course Frankie can do his flying dismounts at every opportunity? I know one is during the race the other after, but the jockeys do it because they are confident in their ability to pull it off. I have yet to see Michael Barcelona have the slightest wobble when standing in the stirrups, just because after two great wins the emotion takes over before the line, it seems he is condemned for life.
Oh yes, the short blog
EPSOM DERBY.
CAMELOT well clear on ratings. If he stays, he should win.
There are 4 horses at the front rank in the betting, but on this season's ratings there is only about 4lbs between 6 of them, excluding the favourite. I thought BONFIRE probably had the most improvement in him, given his preparation. MICKDAAM is a big price, being so close on ratings, but whether he can make as much improvement from his earlier run as the others remains to be seen. THOUGHT WORTHY is one that could well run into a place. Let us just hope it is a clean race?
That's it I have had my rant. Have a good day ...
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