GOODWOOD - Saturday

Let's not waste time on the details:

3.10 Goodwood - Group 1 : SNOW FAIRY

... Oh, if you insist:

MIDDAY:

On winning this last year she gets my second top rating. She clearly handles the track well, and that rating would probably be enough to win in any normal year.

However, despite the stable going well, Midday has been below that level in all three runs this season. Excusable last time, and maybe the time before, ... and maybe her first time out performance??? Alternatively, she is not quite as good as last season?

CRYSTAL CAPELLA:

Does not race many times a year, and she has a dislike of fast ground - it is likely to be fast today, unless they get a tad more the the morning drizzle predicted?

She is my top-rated on her last performance, and if she could reproduce that on today' going she would have a chance.

SNOW FAIRY:

No chance on the ratings I have, or on her last run behind Midday ...

But apart from the fact I love her to bits, her international performances are simply amazing. She too, is a winner here. She likes fast ground, and should be fitter than last time.

If the real Snow Fairy is here today she will dispatch this field with her customary late burst.

Conclusion:

Should I have bothered with all that when I had made my mind when I knew she was entered for the race .... probably not?

1st - SNOW FAIRY

On other races:

2.05 Goodwood:

To me it points to a high drawn winner, and NOVELLEN LAD and GOLDEN DESERT would be my best, the latter ran well earlier in the week.

3.45 Goodwood:

Whilst most will take the above as a pointer, and it should see the low drawn horses drift in the market this race has a better balance across the track. So my best are, one from each wing and one in the middle:

high - TIDDLIWINKS;

middle - EVENS AND ODDS;

low - MON CADEAUX.

Tiddliwinks will like the drop back into this company, and always runs his race.

Evens And Odds is clear top on last year's win, but will have to be back at that level today.

Mon Cadeaux has a handy weight and the far rail to run against. He should have a good tussle with Mac's power on that far side ... if it is the right place to be?

2.35 Goodwood:

ICON DREAM and PETARA BAY have both been staying on too late, but I fancy the former might get it right today?

4.20 Goodwood:

The better 2yo's are coming out now, so I steer clear of these sort of races.

NAWWAAR is best of those with a run.

4.55 Goodwood:

Similar to above, as ratings are more centered around where they ran, but I have TELL DAD on a better mark than the one he has been give by the handicapper.

5.35 Goodwood:

Finally EDGEWATER has a decent draw and may just like this course?

And as a pointer to the above, note how well KAY GEE BE runs in the 3.55 at Donny. has every chance on his earlier run with the above.

Have a good day.

p.s. Somewhat disappointed in that they are looking for an excuse for Canford Cliffs's run against Frankel.

Perhaps they will find something amiss?

To me it was simply a case of what I warned of in my last remarks ... If Hughes tries to stay with Frankel because he think it has the pace, it would be a mistake. It was!

That day Frankel did put it all together and showed what a brilliant horse he is.

I just hope he takes on So You Think over 10f, and gets a similar result. So You Think slows up after running strongly in the middle of the race ... FRANKEL doesn't!

Hat's off to the trainer for keeping the instructions simple, and allowing Queally to race as jockey, not someone following tight instructions, because he showed that the partnership he has with Frankel is absolutely fine.

Pity his career may seem like an anticlimax when Frankel retires?

GOODWOOD - Wednesday

Can I start by saying that my previous blog - the King George - was a far happier ending than the actual race ...

REWILDING ... RIP

Goodwood, always fun, always tricky, even in a 4 runner race?

Let us start with the big one:

3.10 Goodwood: FRANKEL

I suspect that the betting market will end up with the top two being very much closer than it is now -8/11 and 11/8 - which is not the point of interest. This is a class race with a clash of race styles.

Frankel, the one who needs to put all his natural ability into a winning run, because he has an opponent who will gun down any weakness. The beauty of time-based ratings is that the 'weight for age' is simply reduced to WEIGHT. On that basis, Frankel is the winner. My ratings show he has 5lbs - or 2 lengths, if you prefer - to make up on his main rival, but because of the WFA scale he receives 8lbs. It is that tight between them.

CANFORD CLIFFS:

Classy horse with a deadly turn of foot. He also has a high cruising speed. Furthermore, he has no complications in his running style. He will be held up and pounce inside the final furlong.

it is for these reasons I think enough people will jump on his current price, he might even take over as favourite? Although I would suggest even money joint-favourites is more likely, with the bookies margin taken up by bets placed on the other two runners.

RAJSAMAN:

He has a good level of form coming into this race, beating Byword over 8f, and then losing out to Goldikova over 9f last time. The collateral form therefore, puts him a fair bit behind CANFORD CLIFFS, who beat Goldikova on his last run. He also has to give the same 8lbs to FRANKEL.

RIO DE LA PLATA:

Well thought of in his younger days, but always fell short when stepped up to the top level. His last run was behind CANFORD CLIFFS. He too, has to give 8lbs to FRANKEL.

Conclusion:

With this reduced field anything could happen .... but with FRANKEL in the race it is not likely to turn into a 3f sprint, unless jockey/and/or/ trainer's orders get it completely wrong and try and hold Frankel up until they are coming downhill???

One thing has been overlooked is the track? Will the hill help a flagging Frankel or help Canford Cliffs to gain the momentum he needs to overcome the weight difference? It is a big question.

Neither has run on anything other than flat or stiff tracks, with the exception of Newmarket, both in their respective 2000gns. Of the two, you would have to say Frankel performed the best.

Another similarity between these two is, on my ratings at least, their last outing was not their best, it was their previous ones that give them today's mark. All fascinating stuff, but how the race is run is what will make or break one or other.

Now unless one of the other two decide to take up the running, then slow it down ... Either way, Frankel will go off similarly to what he did in the 2000gns, if they have learnt anything from previous runs ... DON'T TIE THE JOCKEY DOWN TO INSTRUCTIONS!

Tom Queally is a young jockey who is riding the best horse he ever will, no matter if he goes on until he is fifty. With that comes the problem - fear of failure. Last time he rode to orders and it nearly cost him the race. If, I repeat, IF he was riding as the good jockey he is, he would not have gone so early?

Therefore, the race will go as follows - Frankel will be allowed to get into his stride, without too much restraint, and should go 6 lengths clear going up the hill.

Canford Cliffs will try to close before they hit the straight course, and have him in his sights for a power finish close home.

Frankel(jockey of), aware of what is likely to happen will have a breather at the point when Canford wants to close, so when they hit he straight there may be only two lengths between them. The latter supporters will believe it is their's to win.

However, now older, stronger, more race-wise horse than he was in April, so FRANKEL will push on again.

It is the gap he opens up there that decides the race. With a 6l gap and the weight concession, I believe, CANFORD CLIFS will find it just beyond him.

Another possibility is that Hughes may think that Canford Cliffs has enough pace to stick with Frankel, and still have a turn of foot at the finish. that would be a mistake, unless Canford is even more supremely gifted than we think?

It is a tactical battle that one of them will lose out, and after the race will feel they could have done/or will do, better - next time.

Whilst everything points to a Canford Cliffs victory, because all he has to do is sit and wait, pounce at the right moment and the race is his ... I just think there is something about FRANKEL that, if he handles the track, he will be the winner today?

1st - FRANKEL

Now it is not just one race, here are a few thoughts on other races.

2.00 Goodwood: FONT each way

The form comment amused me '... fair 6th at Ascot, modest over hurdles since'.

He was modest over hurdles before that race too! However, it is partly the rating he got at Ascot, but also, looking back over his form, he has won at Warwick. The track should suit?

2.35 Goodwood: RED DUKE

It ought to be beteween him and Chandlery, and the penalty gives the latter the edge. Chandlery also has a modest course win in his favour. But it usually pays to follow the winner.

3.45 Goodwood: BRIDLE BELLE each way.

Very tight race, I have no rating above any of their current marks, so whatever wins will have to improve. The selection at least matched her new mark, and is improving.

4.20 Goodwood: No selection ... a newcomer?

4.55 Goodwood: LUTINE BELL

Has a good enough draw, running well, and well ahead of current mark.

GOLDEN DESERT has course wins and is top rated, but needs to bounce back to best form. A speculative each way, given the good draw and jockey booking?

5.30 Goodwood: VALENCHA

Clear top-rated, but over 7f. No indication that 9f might suit better, so not a selection. Still could win, it is just the 2f step up is too much in my opinion. 9f, like 7f, is a specialist trip. Ideally for horses who have run well at 10f, but win at 8f .... this is a very open race?

Have a good day ...

KING GEORGE ....

I could make this a very short blog and simply say:

WORKFORCE has it to lose ... end of?

But races of this nature are never that simple, so here is the analysis.

Ascot 4.30:

(in current betting order)

WORKFORCE:

His two runs this year have form students pondering, both over 10f. His best, and worst(17l behind Harbinger over C/D?) have been over 12f. That said, his opening defeat of Poet was not spectacular, and run in a relatively slow time. I gave him a rating at the bottom of the Group 1 scale. Then came the slightly confusing defeat by So You Think. Confusing over tactics. The pacemaker, Confront, set off at a brisk enough pace, but over 10f it was clear that Workforce was struggling a bit. So after 2f or so( I have not seen any sectionals. only visual observation) the pace dropped off. Was this their plan? Allow Workforce through on the inside on the turn for home, and use Confront as a buffer to make So You Think go wide? As I predicted, leaving So You Think to do his own thing meant he would win. It is the pattern with these horses that have no real turn of foot to just build up speed from a long way out and have enough pace at the end to make it difficult for horses to catch them. By slowing the pace down between the 2f and 4f was just what So You Think needed to run HIS race. It not only left Workforce as target, it meant he used his finishing kick to get the gap, which was to prove it was not enough.

However, the positives are he did start closing at the finish - it was only 10f - and he got my best rating for him, because the overall time was quick probably due to the opening 2f and the long run for home. Enough to put him 5lbs clear of this field, with the plus factor of his optimum trip.

Hence the opening statement ... it is his to lose?

REWILDING:

He managed to do what the above did not, and that was to get in front of So You Think on the line. That was also over 10f. He too, is probably better over 12f, even allowing for being a long way behind WORKFORCE in last year's Derby. Course and pace of the race did not suit.

Undoubtedly best when fresh, and so has plenty of time between races - 38 days since that run - and comes into this with every confidence.

In many ways his defeat of So You Think in a slow time has more merit than the above in a quick time. The reason, again comes from the farcical tactics employed. DEBUSSY - used again here - was meant to do the early pace, but it was not quick enough for So You Think, who was pulling, so Jan Vermeer took it up, but went far too quick and the field just ignored him. This left So You Think to do what he is good at ... doing his own thing. Once in his stride he had the field apparently well beaten. REWILDING, who sat at the back, made his move 2f out and gained enough momentum to pass So You Think close home. It was impressive because of the slow pace, and his target had a good lead. However, a horse with a turn of foot always looks impressive against a one-paced(relatively speaking) horse.

Despite the so-so rating for the race, this horse is the easiest to work out. He will sit at the back and attack late. The problem here is, he will not be chasing a slowing down So You Think, these are entirely different beasts?

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY:

Doubts over this horse be able to come back to the promise he held as a top 2yo. His odds on defeat did nothing but increase that this term. Nor did his Chester win for some, myself included, as it was a muddling race thanks to Harris Tweed not being ridden to his best advantage - set a strong pace and see if the others can match it? - and a slow time ensued.

However, he at last showed he still had some of his early ability when beating Midday - albeit, well assisted by the latter going for home 3f out? - but the time was reasonable, given the steady early pace, and proved that 12f was no problem.

The nature of this race will require him to be produced late on off a steady pace - set by stable companion Debussy - and on that score I do not see his pilot being the negative that others do? J O'Brien gets horses to relax and run their races. There is nothing complicated about this horse's style, and if good enough, and he will need to improve, he will go close.

NATHANIEL:

My initial thought was ...Nathaniel , what are you doing here? You have a St Leger to win!

On paper he has it to do ... but, and it is a big BUT ... he is an improving 3yo with a healthy wfa concession to put his rating right up there. Formwise, he finished second to the double Derby winner, and then went on to an impressive win over C/D in a Group 2.

Yes, there is the feeling that this crop of 3yo's are not quite the cream, and the step up in class is certain to make it tough ... but he is tough.

DEBUSSY:

Nah! Let's not waste time, eh?

Conclusion:

After Debussy has taken them along for 3f the question will be who goes on. None of them want it to be 3f dash, least of all Nathaniel, so he would be my pick to bring them into the straight.

Closely followed by St Nicholas Abbey, and Workforce. Rewilding will bide his time with his targets all in view.

If Nathaniel has got it right he will press on 2.5f out and try and outstay them.

St Nicholas Abbey will be the first to kick, and will find him difficult to pass.

Workforce and Rewilding will make their moves together, with the latter having 2l to pick up.

This is where the race is so different to chasing down So You Think, these will be hitting top gear now and I expect WORKFORCE to win going away

My ratings suggest that Workforce apart, there is only 3lbs separating the other three, and Nathaniel is in the middle. I will stick with my ratings:

1, WORKFORCE

2, ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

3, REWILDING

And Nathaniel losing nothing in defeat, and may even hold off one above for 3rd place.

However, things rarely go just as you might think, this is just my reading of it.

Have a good day.

IRISH OAKS

Another Classic conundrum ...

3.45 Curragh: (in current betting order)

WONDER OF WONDERS: Not my automatic choice on form, because you have to decide whether she won her race at Chester despite the way it was run ... resulting in a slow time? And then, was she unlucky to lose at Epsom because of the way it was run ... resulting in a slow time?

There is no guarantee today's race will be run that straightforward either.

On the positive side she looks like 12f suits, and will run her race. Whether that will be good enough at the third time of asking we will see.

BLUE BUNTING: If you take out her Epsom run, then I would guess she would be a strong favourite here? She won the 2000gns despite her breeding, yet at Epsom she did not confirm she truly stays 12f. There hangs the problem, it was such a muddling, stop-start sort of race that she could prove that it was just a blip. The stable says she is stronger now ... I thought she looked pretty strong at Newmarket. This more conventional track will set the record straight.

DANCING RAIN: She stepped up on her previous form to win at Epsom, that the merit of her win was overlooked because of the way it was run ... resulting in a slow time. The question with her is can she repeat that 'trick', or better still, improve on it by winning on a conventional track run at a more consistent pace? I doubt if she will be able to dictate the pace today, with multiple O'Brien runners there to set it up for the favourite, so she will need all of that courage she showed to stay in front at Epsom, and then some.

BANIMPIRE: No quirky questions to answer here. She does what it says on the label ... she is a Racehorse!

Not won at Group 1 level, in fact she failed at her only attempt. That was in the Irish 1000gns, where several of these failed also. That was over 8f, and since the she has won twice over this trip at Group 3 and Group 2 level. The latter was at Ascot where she displayed great heart to get her nose in front. In doing so she has the best of my figures over 12f by a long way, and she will be the yardstick that the others are measured by.

The one slight doubt is whether Ascot took too much out of her? She was a mare thriving on her racing, no less than 7 races by the middle of June! She has now had a month off and could be champing at the bit ... or not? We shall see.

LAUGHING LASHES: She is the slightly forgotten horse in this race. Not raced since her 3rd to Misty for Me and Together on this course, in the 1000gns. Recorded a good time in that race, and that form has stood up well. Yet she is out amongst the handicappers in the betting?

The reason is because of the doubts over her stamina. Her pedigree does not suggest she would even get 10f let alone 12f. Perhaps the stable know different? Perhaps, like BLUE BUNTING in reverse, she will defy the logic of her breeding. Certainly her proximity to Together, who was 2nd in both 1000gns puts her very much in the mix. She has clearly been kept back for this race(for whatever reason?), so if she stays ....

RUMH: She is the best of the rest, but her form - 23 lengths behind BANIMPIRE last time out - shows she has an enormous task just to get placed.

Conclusion:

BANIMPIRE and BLUE BUNTING are hard to separate, but if pressed I will go for the tough filly with the figures in the bank.

1, BANIMPIRE

2, BLUE BUNTING

3, WONDER OF WONDERS

If it is to be a shock winner then it will be LAUGHING LASHES

Grand Prix de Paris

This French 'Summer Derby' has attracted a very good field, and therefore my interest.

6.50 Longchamp:

(in current betting order)

TREASURE BEACH:

Deservedly took the Irish Derby and will once again be a strong contender. However, this in not going to be a stamina test like the Curragh was. Lomgchamp is pretty flat, and after the 'false' straight, the run-in is relatively short. This will favour those with speed as much as stamina. The way I see this race being run he will have to be very handy on the final turn and make a sustained run for home. Certainly not beyond him.

RELIABLE MAN:

Beat a big field in the French Derby by being in the right place at the right time. That was over 10.5f, and the extra distance will be in his favour. The form of that race may be flattering, given the joint favourite, Baraan, ran a blinder to finish 3rd from where he came from. Whereas the other joint fav, Roderick O'Connor ran no sort of race. Tin Horse, the French 2000gns winner ran okay to finish 5th but probably did not stay the trip. But the fact he was a nose behind the Gosden trained Columbian can hardly be considered top Classic form? So there are doubts over this one, but he did win. His style of racing is not dissimilar to Treasure Beach and it would be no surprise to me that very little separates these two, wherever they finish.

SEVILLE:

I believe this is the one the O'Brien team would like to win with, given his future stallion prospects. However, his weakness does seem to be the distinct lack of finishing speed. My guess is he will be ridden in a similar manner to So You Think(see Pretty Polly blog) and try and take it on from a long way out, gradually building up the pace, as well as a lead, to finish strongly enough to see off his rivals. It is a trick that has worked before and it is his best chance to win.

BUBBLE CHIC:

Runner up to Reliable Man last time, and not certain to stay the extra 1.5f. His come from behind style will help, and being reunited with Pasquier his jockey today is another plus. The key to this one's success is the timing of his run. The last two times he has taken it up 1.5f out, only to get run out of it close home. Given that it was non other than Pour Moi who beat him the time before(prior to that one's Epsom success) shows he is no mean performer. The question is, will he be able to hang on to Seville and still deliver his kick closer to home?

MEANDRE:

Progressing nicely, but not at the top level. The horses he beat do not flatter the form of his wins. Valiyr did go on and win a Listed race, but then failed in a Group 3. So despite it being trained by Andre Fabre, he looks up against it.

MARKSMANSHIP:

This horse should not be underrated. If there had been 8 runners he would be a good EW in my opinion. He won well first time out, but disappointed at Ascot behind Pisco Sour. That was only his second run and the occasion probably got to him. He was staying on despite that, so the 12f here may well suit if he settles better. He has an in form Ryan Moore to help him and he has every chance of showing his true worth.

KREEM:

Another Fabre horse who is progressing nicely just below top level. Given he won a Group 3 last time out, beating the runner up to Meandre by much further, I would say he has every chance of finishing in front of his stable companion with young Barzalona on board, despite the odds saying otherwise?

Conclusion: Tricky ... but I'll stick with the horse with the best finish ... BUBBLE CHIC.

Full of 'ifs,buts, and maybe's' but if the race goes as I suggest; Seville will be in front when they enter the 'false' straight, Then I think Reliable Man and Treasure Beach will be next, not allowing him to get away. Ryan Moore will have Marksmanship handy too. In the next group I hope Bubble Chic will be still going well enough to close on the front group as they turn for home. As the two stamina horses pass the fading Seville, so too will Marksmanship pass them with a likely winning run ... but if Pasquier can delay his burst until inside the final furlong then it should be good enough to catch the Ballydoyle outsider close home ... but this is a French race, so who knows??

1, BUBBLE CHIC

0.5l

2, MARKSMANSHIP

1.5l

3, TREASURE BEACH

.25l

4, RELIABLE MAN

2l

5, KREEM

... not rising to the top ... sorry, it just had to be said?

Have a good day,

Gerry

p.s. Sorry no blogs for the July fest .... still catching up with ratings.

Next blog - Irish Oaks

ECLIPSE Stakes

Another Saturday blog ...?

3.10 Sandown: SNOW FAIRY

Why you may ask? Well I have been puzzling for a while now on how SO YOU THINK wins his races so easily when the overall time turns out to be slow.

Well this is my theory; When allowed to dictate his own pace then over 10f, the first 5 0r 6 furs are deceptively slow. He then gradually picks up the tempo to the point where he can go faster than those trying to make up ground. However, last time the use of a pacemaker slightly upset things, but more importantly, in my opinion, Ryan Moore tried to rush him into a big enough lead for him to hang on to ... not the horse's style. Consequently, a half decent horse was able to come out from off the pace and catch him.

WORKFORCE has every bit of pace as Rewilding, probably more? He will want this to be a stiff test, and the Sandown hill will help. He also has CONFRONT in as pacemaker. How well Jimmy Fortune sets the pace will ultimately decide the race. If he sets off too quick, then SO YOU THINK will just ignore him and do his own thing. However, the Stoute camp will know this, so my guess is they will try and get Workforce to settle in IMMEDIATELY behind Confront and set a decent gallop.

This sets a problem for Heffernan because he either lets them go and tries wind it up early, leaving him vulnerable to a late charge, OR, he goes with them and hopes he still has the class and speed to fend off Workforce.

Sri Putra is probably not quite up to this level, but is still good enough to make a nuisance of himself with any under-performing horses. Whenever So You Think makes his move, Sri Putra will surely follow, and make him commit for as long as he can do so.

On my ratings I have SO YOU THINK just 3lbs ahead of WORKFORCE from their respective last two runs, but both are a few pounds below their BHA marks.

WORKFORCE should come on for his first run to narrow the gap to zero.

SO YOU THINK was disappointing at Ascot, but I do not buy the lack of fitness as the cause of his defeat, rather the way he was ridden in the race.

Enter my beloved SNOW FAIRY.

To be honest I would not have bothered with this blog if it meant pointing out that she will be beaten today ... She still may, and she has excuses for any defeat other than being tailed off behind Confront!

However, on my ratings I have her only 1lb behind So You Think, and that rating came from her St Leger run, which is by no means her best. If that is as good as the two colts are, then there is every chance she can overcome her preparation. Especially as the big two will only have eyes for each other, because she will be sitting right out of the back until very late on. If she can produce half the finishing speed she has shown in Japan and Hong Kong she will leave them for dead. I believe(through my rose tinted specs) that she is the only horse in training that can match Pour Moi for a finishing burst off a true run race ...

And there hangs the problem, will Workforce/Confront partnership make it a true run race? If they do their jobs well, then I see Workforce come off the bend and try and use his speed to get ahead late on so that So You Think cannot grind it out ... but whether he can then hold off the withering late run of Snow Fairy is another matter?

On the other hand, if they allow So You think to do his 'thing', the slow early pace will not suit Snow Fair at all, and even a place might be difficult for her to achieve.

Have a good day.

Memo to self : The Curragh dries out VERY QUICKLY!