3.10 Sandown: SNOW FAIRY
Why you may ask? Well I have been puzzling for a while now on how SO YOU THINK wins his races so easily when the overall time turns out to be slow.
Well this is my theory; When allowed to dictate his own pace then over 10f, the first 5 0r 6 furs are deceptively slow. He then gradually picks up the tempo to the point where he can go faster than those trying to make up ground. However, last time the use of a pacemaker slightly upset things, but more importantly, in my opinion, Ryan Moore tried to rush him into a big enough lead for him to hang on to ... not the horse's style. Consequently, a half decent horse was able to come out from off the pace and catch him.
WORKFORCE has every bit of pace as Rewilding, probably more? He will want this to be a stiff test, and the Sandown hill will help. He also has CONFRONT in as pacemaker. How well Jimmy Fortune sets the pace will ultimately decide the race. If he sets off too quick, then SO YOU THINK will just ignore him and do his own thing. However, the Stoute camp will know this, so my guess is they will try and get Workforce to settle in IMMEDIATELY behind Confront and set a decent gallop.
This sets a problem for Heffernan because he either lets them go and tries wind it up early, leaving him vulnerable to a late charge, OR, he goes with them and hopes he still has the class and speed to fend off Workforce.
Sri Putra is probably not quite up to this level, but is still good enough to make a nuisance of himself with any under-performing horses. Whenever So You Think makes his move, Sri Putra will surely follow, and make him commit for as long as he can do so.
On my ratings I have SO YOU THINK just 3lbs ahead of WORKFORCE from their respective last two runs, but both are a few pounds below their BHA marks.
WORKFORCE should come on for his first run to narrow the gap to zero.
SO YOU THINK was disappointing at Ascot, but I do not buy the lack of fitness as the cause of his defeat, rather the way he was ridden in the race.
Enter my beloved SNOW FAIRY.
To be honest I would not have bothered with this blog if it meant pointing out that she will be beaten today ... She still may, and she has excuses for any defeat other than being tailed off behind Confront!
However, on my ratings I have her only 1lb behind So You Think, and that rating came from her St Leger run, which is by no means her best. If that is as good as the two colts are, then there is every chance she can overcome her preparation. Especially as the big two will only have eyes for each other, because she will be sitting right out of the back until very late on. If she can produce half the finishing speed she has shown in Japan and Hong Kong she will leave them for dead. I believe(through my rose tinted specs) that she is the only horse in training that can match Pour Moi for a finishing burst off a true run race ...
And there hangs the problem, will Workforce/Confront partnership make it a true run race? If they do their jobs well, then I see Workforce come off the bend and try and use his speed to get ahead late on so that So You Think cannot grind it out ... but whether he can then hold off the withering late run of Snow Fairy is another matter?
On the other hand, if they allow So You think to do his 'thing', the slow early pace will not suit Snow Fair at all, and even a place might be difficult for her to achieve.
Have a good day.
Memo to self : The Curragh dries out VERY QUICKLY!
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