Champion's Day - Ascot 2013

This will be my last blog of the season, and like the previous one, it will not have the full weight of my own rating behind it.

Ascot 1.45: 16f  Champion Stayers Group 3

ESTIMATE is hard to oppose on form. Returning as a 4 year old he has fulfilled the hopes of his trainer, and this would be his crowning glory. He will have to be at his best, but as he has improved with every run so far, makes him the one to beat.

HARRIS TWEED posted his best run last time out. Perhaps they have rekindled his interest after a spell in the wilderness. At his best, he will make whoever gets past him work very hard, if they manage it at all. Key to his running is the pace he sets. Quick enough to be comfortable for him to maintain, and still have enough to battle on when challenged. Not many get past him when it all comes together, and with a decent break from his last win might mean today is when he sees off all the challengers.

ROYAL DIAMOND disappointed in the Irish ST Leger, but J. Murtagh, Ascot, and a big race Saturday seem to be a winning habit. So riding and training this horse could be extra special if he pulls it off? I am not convinced he can beat the above pair, but may just be the best of the rest.

Ascot 2.20: 6f Champion Sprinter Group 2

MAAREK and mud go together well. Fresh from winning at Longchamp on 'Arc weekend, with an equally impressive field behind him, this should be another win. So with soft ground in his favour he is definitely the one that stands out. If this were a handicap he would not be top weight on official ratings, but the absence of the disappointing Soul, and Sole Power, he comes here in tip top form.

SLADE POWER is the only horse rated higher, and has run some cracking races against the very best. The softish ground whilst not a problem, does just favour the above more.

HOOF IT showed signs of coming back to his best and could reward each way punters by getting placed at a decent price.

Ascot 2.55: 12f Champion Fillies and Mares Group 1

IGUGU represents the South African trainer Mike De Kock and I take a chance on this being the best value in the race from a punting point of view. The trainer's horses have taken a little time to acclimatise here, but there were signs that they are coming good right now. This one's form level is as high as some of these, but he has won on her only run at this distance, and won 3 out of 4 on going softer than good. It is a strange race as there is a strong 3 year old challenge, but their level of form can also be questioned against their elders?

TALENT may prove to be the best of the younger generation, as I thought she looked a proper stayer in the Epsom Oaks. back to form last time behind the best filly around, Leading Light, and so is the justified favourite.

NYMPHEA is a tough sort and has won a Group 1 race in Germany this season. Will not go down without a battle, and certainly has each way claims.

Ascot 3.30: 8f Champion Milers Group 1

The script has changed for this race. For the past two years it has been Frankel, followed by the horse that got close to Frankel (Excellebration, 6 lengths). Winner picking has never been so easy? Unfortunately, the horse that got closest to Frankel last season FARHH(4 lengths), has defected to the next race  ...

I have never fully bought into the hype around DAWN APPROACH, so this will be a big test as he has ever faced. Even though his fellow 3 year olds may pose too many questions, the older brigade certainly will.

MAXIOS has the form to beat Dawn Approach on a tenuous line through Olympic Glory based on his 5 length slamming of that horse last time out. The soft ground is no problem, and as most of his wins have been over further, stamina will not be a problem if Leitor Mor does his customary job of setting a fast, but steady pace from the off. He is not the only one though.

SOFT FALLING RAIN on fast ground would certainly be a lot shorter odds than on the current going. There is a chance it will dry out to near good by the time of this race, and the straight course does drain particularly well.

And it is these three on form that he others have to overcome to be in with a chance of winning.

GORDON LORD BYRON would see off all challengers over shorter, but he has shown he can get the mile trip. Murtagh ridden, my guess he will play it late. If the early pace hasn't done for him, then his finishing speed will do for them.

CASPER NETSCHER looks to be hitting peak form and could run another big race, but he has always been just below the very top class, despite running his races very honestly.

ELUSIVE KATE is a bit quirky and has excellent form against top class horses. If it is a choice between her and Dawn Approach to grind out a win, I think she could do it. However, I think speed will win the day.

Of the 3 three year olds, the disappointing KINGSBARNS would be a danger if he lived up to his 2 yo promise? The O'Brien sole representative should not be dismissed for that reason alone?

I am also a huge fan of TOP NOTCH TONTO, who followed up his surprise win with another on faster ground than suits best. Big shock if he could topple these on basic form.

Conclusion: MAXIOS as the likely winner from the way the race is expected to be run.
GORDON LORD BYRON and KINGSBARNS have sound each way value.

Ascot 4.05: 10f Middle Distance Championship Group 1

Following my opening statement for the previous race it goes down to ...

CIRRUS DES AIGLES only 1.75 lengths behind Frankel last year, wins from ..

FARHH who was 4 lengths behind Frankel last year.

Is it really that simple? Well it would be if it wasn't for injuries to both horses. The former was injured in the pre-season and has only just back to showing the same sparkle that got him so close to the greatest ever. Whilst the latter has not be out since winning in the spring in a magical Frankel-free Lockinge race over a mile.

Answer is, YES! ... if both are back to the very best. Every thing else is simply playing catch-up, and that includes the Epsom Derby winner, RULER OF THE WORLD. If both falter he is the most likely to gain, but for me I'll stick to keeping it simple; 1.75 lengths beats 4 lengths.

Ascot 4.45: 7f Future Stars Apprentice H'cap Class 2

This is a minefield when trying to guess the winner. Nearly all the best apprentices are here, but very few are on good horses over this trip.

I will go for one of my favourite horses who is just coming back to his best, which is very, very good ..

BUBBLY BELLINI ridden by top Irish apprentice R P Whelan

Have a good day ....

Doncaster St. Leger - 3.50pm

Apologies to my few readers for the complete halt to my blogs. Truth is, I got distracted, got behind with my ratings, and the distraction did not leave time to write anything anyway.

Doncaster 3.50: 14f Group ! St Leger Stakes.

I said at the time, the extra distance will suit this horse, and soft ground will be a bonus. I have seen nothing since to change my mind.

Conclusion: GALILEO ROCK

I  did think Leading Light ran a good one last time, and clearly stays. But I think Galileo Rock has that bit of class about him, to be placed in two Group ! Classics short of his best distance, will be enough to see off all comers today