Stewards Cup

Different approach today. I am following Robert Taylor's guidelines to eliminate some of the field.

However, I am only using 3 of his stats for these reasons: The draw looks pretty open this time, and there is likely to be pace across the board - Ignored. Having run in the Wokingham? Winners have come from other races- Ignored. Official ratings - Ignored(this is a high class field). I am eliminating the over 6yo's and 3yo's.

The main criteria are as follows:

Last time out ran in Class 2 or higher.

Having won over 6f - on turf, and in the last year.

Having been placed, or won a £20k h'cap, as above.

Eliminated: Knot In Wood; Advanced; Iver Bridge Lad; Johannes; Johnny Mudball; Run For The Hills; Ancient Regime; Sonny Red; Secret Asset; Prime Exhibit; Singeur.

That leaves the following, in weight adjusted order - up to Sir Gerry's weight.

124 ENACT

119 PALACE MOON

115 PERSIAN PYRAMID

113 CASTLES IN THE AIR

113 KALDOUN KINGDOM

113 PROHIBIT

112 JIMMY STYLES

111 SIR GERRY

111 INGLEBY LADY

111 NOVERRE TO GO

110 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH

108 GENKI

108 EVENS AND ODDS

107 EVERYMANFORHIMSELF

106 HITCHENS

97 EDGE CLOSER

97 STRIKING SPIRIT

Conclusion; The favourite looks to have a lot going for it, including several other of Robert's pointers. Whether you consider the price 'value' is another matter?

Of the others, many get their ratings from courses vastly different to Goodwood, which is why I would give Persian Pyramid a big plus. If the rain stayed away then the form should stand up quite well? Best of luck, you will need it, but I hope this helps?

Cheers, Gerry

Goodwood - Thursday

Going back to the 2yo races today, where I have had a bit more success(if you can call it that, ratings fine - selection poor?) than the 3yo race yesterday.

4.00 Goodwood Group 2 6f

104 LIBRANNO

93 MARINE COMMANDO

Conclusion: Group 2 winner last time out and a healthy speed figure, Libranno looks a class apart. Marine Commando is going to have to improve a great deal for the extra furlong and rise in class.

Mind, I nearly choked on my cornflakes when I read Timeform's comments to put The Paddyman ahead of Libranno, I quote ' ... looked group class in the making when winning a Yarmouth maiden by 8l' .... In the words of John McEnroe 'YOU CAN NOT BE SERIOUS!!!'

The class levels at Yarmouth are invariably poor and this meeting was no exception being made up of C5 and C6's, so to be superior to poor is not group class ...even in the making! Add to that, it was only the 5th best relative time of the seven races?? But, hey, what do I know? My record this week has probably put that as a nap in some people's notebooks?

4.35 Goodwood Class 2 7f

90 minus 1lbs MEMEN

77 plus 3lbs SINGAPORE LILY

81 plus 12lbs FALKLAND FLYER

Conclusion:

Memen, like the above, has the rating and the speed figure to win this, but the weight concession brings the other two into it.

Singapore Lily gets in close due to he big weight allowance, but got beaten 12l when they met at Newmarket. I have watched the replays of both races, and the Sandown one is the most unsatisfactory. Here, Singapore Lily was held up in a slowly run race - indeed, they were 'careful' round the bend - so it was a sprint to the line. Out the back was not the place to be, but she was just behind the eventual 3rd when making her run. Got a slight knock which may have cost her a couple of lengths, but that would have only put her ahead of the wall of three horses who she got stuck behind.

At Newmarket, Singapore Lily tried to make the running, while Memen was stuck behind a group of horses. It all changed just over 1f out when Memen got in the clear and went forward to win impressively, Singapore Lily went backwards. Now whether the way the race is run today will make any difference I doubt, unless it is a crawl. Again doubtful as there is plenty of pace here. I also disagree with Timeform's view that the track may not suit Memen. I have watched the replay of the Chepstow race they refer to, yes I have been thorough this morning, and I got the impression that the did not go too quick, kicked about 4f out, and Memen got outpaced in what was effectively a 4f sprint, and was eased when it was obvious that 4th was the best he could manage. That was over 6f, today is 7f, albeit on a downhill track. With plenty of pace, his turn of foot will be the key.

Falkland Flyer is not so difficult to work out. He is a possible pacemaker, so is likely to set it up for those coming from behind. However, he has been run out of it twice since winning a class 5 maiden.

The rest, in my opinion, are simply not good enough, or not getting enough weight to match my selection.

Have a good day, Gerry

Goodwood 2.10 July29th

I got stuck on the first race as 3yo handicaps, like their 2yo counterparts, offer a challenge. Also they have all run in at least one truly run race so their ability is revealed, but not necessarily any further improvement?

2.10 GOODWOOD

97 C4 RIGIDITY

Conclusion: This ran in a hot class 4 handicap at York, over this distance, and in a marginally slower time than Imposing did on the day. Whilst the winner has not gone on to great things, Contract Caterer was behind and has. It is lightly raced, not having run since May, but with Henry Cecil as the trainer, it should not be a problem? Stable are certainly in form now and the course should not pose a problem. It may not be a confident selection because of the rise in class, but it will do for me in a race full of 'ifs' and 'buts'.

But of course, you all want to know what am turning down don't you?

In ratings order:

110 CAPPONI - One of many stepping up to 10f, but with 10lbs in hand?

106 RANSOM NOTE - Did not improve for the step up to 10f last time

99 INVINCIBLE SOUL - Late rattle will suit jockey in form, will 10f?

96 LONDON STRIPE - Better at this trip, but needs to improve. Danger

96 CUMULUS NIMBUS - Love the name, and the style of win last time. A player.

89 BEACHFIRE - Stepping up in grade, and not well in.

88 RIGHT STEP - Interesting, go back to April over this distance???

87 AATTASH - Course winner, but not a lot in hand on my ratings.

86 INGLEBY SPIRIT - Again, go back to April has a chance, but likes it softer?

85 CULTIVAR - Chester winner over 10f, but needs to improve.

82 ABERGAVENNY - Better at Windsor, like the above, needs to improve.

82 SOLICITOR - Interesting. Beverley win sound, but big rise in class.

80 FINEST RESERVE - More interesting, stepping up to 10f could help??

Those highlighted in RED are my ew suggestions.

Have a good day, Gerry

Goodwood - 28th July

Just a few notes on the other races.

2.10 GOOD WOOD

I have only looked at the main players here, and most ratings match their Official h'cap mark ... with one exception;

THEOLA - 98 plus 17lbs

Don't get too carried away as that was in a class 2 at Chester. Fastest comparative time on the day, carrying 10st. Now up 2 grades, over further? But with Betair offering 9/1 currently, it could run a good race with only 8.12lbs? Remember, all of that 16lbs is because of the rise in class - plus 2lbs rise for winning. At Chester all horses were rated inferior to her, most are better here!!

3.25 GOODWOOD - SUSSEX STAKES

If I thought these runners were all 100% there would only be one selection -RIP VAN WINKLE.

Alas, this is not the case. I have only 2lbs separating Canford Cliffs from Premier Loco, but both ran below their OR's last time out? Neither are within 20lbs RVW's last year's rating though.

I will sit this one out. For those who do the 'in running' plays, it may be an idea to see if Beethoven is their as a pacemaker or to run on its own merits?

4.00 GOODWOOD

Nightmare! I have only found one horse that has a better rating than its OR - Sea Of heartbreak, and that only by 2lbs .... a placepot buster of a race!

4.35 GOODWOOD

ROYALORIEN set a good standard as its debut was run in a very good time.

I am out of time to do any justice to the last 2 races. Have a good day

Gerry

Goodwood 2.45

I am sticking with the 2yo race today, although only 7 runners does take the EW value out?

2.45 GOODWOOD

107 G2 KING TORUS

103 G2 CHILWORTH LAD

81 C2 CROWN PROSECUTOR

76 C4 SURREY STAR

Conclusion: If the odds reflected the above then it might easy to conclude that the top two have it between them? However, I was amazed to see Crown Prosecutor is favourite on Betfair, and even more chuffed to get 12.5 on Chilworth Lad!

The reason is simple. The top two have both run in Group 2's. King Torus had a gutsy win over 7f at Newmarket. This is a sharper track. He now carries a 3lb penalty. Chilworth Lad has been racing over 5f and 6f, and his rating comes over the latter at the Curragh, a stiffish track. He got hampered at a crucial time, and only stayed on thereafter, but only beaten 2 lengths. Add in that the raw speed rating is 11pts faster than King Torus(although top in that category goes to the Hannon '2nd' string, Major Art), you can see why 'chuffed' hardly describes my delight at the odds ... Mind, with my biorythmns on the decline I shall no do doubt be sticking an 'F' in the Hannon horse's name if it is a repeat of yesterday!

Goodwood 4.00

I am choosing races carefully, so this 2yo race is it. By this time of year 2yo's are starting to beat my race grades regularly, which gives me a better idea of their ability. Others get close, particularly in the higher grades, which is okay. Then you get the ones who get no where near the grade, whether in victory or defeat, and you cannot be sure if it is the the grade -i.e. the 'class' - that has left them short, or just the way the race was run?

That is the challenge!

In my order of ratings:

4.00 GOODWOOD:

99 G1 STONE OF FOLCA - This course will suit better, should win.

96 G1 ZEBEDEE - Behind above. win nto rates 91. Placepot banker.

93 LST PRIMO LADY- Sound win at York, well beaten at this level since.

86 C2 BOLD BIDDER - Ran a blinder behind Temple Meads. Course will suit.

85 C2 SCARLET ROCKS - Course will suit, beaten at higher level.

84 C3 MAYSON - York maiden second, did not improve when winning.

Others to note:

85 G2 SERENA'S PRIDE - Rating from Ascot, well beaten then and since.

79 C4 CHOOSE WISELY - Excellent winning time, probably improved in France?

71 C5 AVONMORE STAR - Course winner, better than rating.

One to query?:

73 C4 LORD OF THE STARS - Got high praise in good class races but has yet to record a decent time figure??

72 C2 Again, looked good, time slow.

Conclusion: I can see no reason why the form of the top two will be reversed. This course will suit Stone Of Folca much better, and Jimmy Quinn is the right sort of jockey get him there close home?

Zebedee should be the biggest danger, but did not improve on his rating next time at the lower grade.

Of the rest, I think this race will come a bit too soon for Bold Bidder after his heroic York effort.

I would have given a squeak to Choose Wisely, but defeat at Listed level probably means he is not up to this grade.

Avonmore Star however has the second best 'speed figure' and is much better than the handicap rating. Course winner gives him a sound EW chance.

Have a good day, Gerry

Ascot 24th July

This is short blog, concentrating on just two races.

2.40 Ascot:

96 Group 3 6f MARGOT DID

91 Group 2 6f SORAAYA

84 Class 2 6f CATFISH

83 Group 2 5f CATALINA'S DIAMOND

The top two have similar, but separate ratings, behind Memory. Unfortunately I am not swayed by the visually impressive Memory, as both victories were recorded as having the slowest time figure of all at both Newmarket and Ascot. Class difference between the two race is virtually nil, as a few ran in both, the collateral form would give the edge to Margot Did. That race also had the higher of the two speed figures, hence the higher final rating.

However, as unlikely as it may seem, Catalina's Diamond would have an outstanding EW chance if you can ignore the Nottingham race last time? Despite finishing a 6 lengths,and only 6th behind Maqaasid, the speed figure puts it only 1 point behind Margot Did's figure. Yes, it was over 5f, but she stayed on. The 6f Nottingham race is more difficult to explain away. She did make the running, and the time was quite good on the day, but it was only Class 5. It may be she is simply not up to this level, but with the odds difference of 75/1 against 5/2 I think a small EW is in order.

Catfish does have a winning rating, and her speed figure is slightly better than Soraaya's ... But, at Class 2 level.

On pure speed figures, Shoshoni Wind is well clear, but from a modest Class 5.

The rest are very average, and although not having a rating for Queen of Spain, form lines through Memory and Meow suggests this will be a wasted journey?

Anything is open to improvement, but from what they have shown so far I think my ratings will stand up quite well.

3.15 Ascot:

(Wght adj)

116 Class 2 8f KING OF WINDSOR

113 Class 2 8f HIGHLAND KNIGHT

102 Class 3 8f GINGER JACK

102 Class 4 8f ZAKILY

101 Class 5 8f SPA'S DANCER

The top two are both rated on their run behind Sea Lord, and that is solid form. Ginger Jack is improving but is up in grade, the other two even more so.

Spa's Dancer is 5lbs clear of the next pair, Side Glance and Mass Rally (class 2 and 3 respectively), and they have the class to be in there fighting for a place.

4.25 Ascot:

121 Group 2 HARBINGER

120 Group 1 WORKFORCE

I repeat what I said the other day. If Stoute did not think Workforce was not something special I cannot believe they would risk his enormous potential value at stud racing against a horse they know is very good? Even now, if there was a hint of something being amiss in the stable they would pull him out. Harbinger carries the hopes of many, and they get to be in the parade ring on their big day, so they are not going to mind too much if they finish second. Of course they are hoping for a win, but it will not be the end of their world.

I said after Workforce won the Derby I could only rate him at 120, but he has the potential to go well into the mid 130's. Comparing with Racing Post, you need to add 14 to mine, i.e. 134 (same for Harbinger), so when I say the mid 130's the comparison with Sea The Stars becomes that much closer at 148+??

Workforce to win in the style of a great horse, Harbinger should run his race if Confront does his job well.

Well that is the blog. Have a good day,

Gerry

Blogs off

Yes, sorry but there will be no more blogs in the near future, while I try to catch up with results for my database.

Few Saturday figures

This is a quick blog on the following races:

Haydock 2.50

108 BARSHIBA

108 LADY JANE DIGBY

104 CASSIQUE LADY

Haydock 3.25 -weight adj

126 HANOVARIAN BARON

118 REVE DE NUIT

117 SUBMARINER

114 ALMIQDAAD

Leicester 3.00

89 CASTER SUGAR - see Top Spot blog -Warwick

87 BOLLIN DOLLY

87 TUT

Leicester 4.10

104 HAJOUM

103 TESSLAM - wfa adj

90 BIG NOISE

Sandown 2.00

117 BOULD MOVER

117 TRIPLE ASPECT

Sandown 3.10 - See yesterdays blog -No horse ticks all the boxes, see below

MAWATHEEQ - yet to prove he is as good as last year.

SRI PUTRA - probably outclassed, but dangerous if the others take their eyes of him

TWICE OVER - possible concerns with two runs on fast ground, and bombed here last year.

ZACINTO - trip too far, pulls hard.

DAR RE MI - trip too short, and lack of pace.

VISCOUNT NELSON - yet to win at this level.

All the above are questions that will be answered as the race unfolds.

Have a good day,

Gerry

ECLIPSE STAKES

The race has cut up badly, and 2010 ratings available are not very good, but all could be better than these ratings.

MAWATHEEQ - 95

Rating from only run this year, behind Buzzword and TWICE OVER. Very poor race on time, but should improve for the run.

TWICE OVER - 101

Finish close second to Buzzword, and looked to be coming back to its best, and again should rate higher than this.

SRI PUTRA- 107

Rating came from first time out win, and the time was slow, and therefore rated below its Official mark. Very poor run next time.

VISCOUNT NELSON - 111 (For cricket fans, stand on one leg throughout the race!)

This was a better run in the Irish 2000gns, behind Canford Cliffs. Breeding suggest he may be better at this 10f, so not without a chance. O'Brien horses in better form now?

ZACINTO - 118

Excellent run behind Goldikova at Ascot, and gets the top mark ... However, that was over 8f, most of his better runs are over that distance, so will the extra 2f be an advantage ... ? I would suggest that the breeding and running style would say no, even in this small field with no guaranteed pacemaker.

DAR RE MI - 118est

The only rating I can give here is through Sariska - If Sariska's win at York rated the same as a .75l defeat by Dar Re Mi last year, then 118 is what you get.

Unfortunately, my ratings for 08 and 09 both ran out of steam just when the season kicks into top gear - hence only 2010 ratings.

Conclusion - DAR RE MI to win, but as it is likely to be a muddling race, pacewise, I would have a saver on VISCOUNT NELSON. 3yo's have as good a record in the race as any group.