Yes, it is the start of a new Flat season, and it looks like being a cracker.
Why I prefer it to the Jumps season is that there is always some big race to look forwards to ... The moment business had concluded at Cheltenham there were prices popping up for the Lincoln, stories on the first classic contenders, not too mention the first target for the mighty FRANKEL.
Well I am hopeful that my efforts through the winter will prove more successful than last season?
So straight into action with the race of the day ...
Doncaster 3.15 - the LINCOLN Handicap.
I have narrowed the field down to 4 horses. Most eliminated on their current official mark which I think is too high, along with those drawn in the middle of the track.
COCOZZA - Has an outstanding chance if his placed form is sound, if he can overcome the 15 draw, and above all, if he has learned to settle.
Developing each point a little more.
1, Form - dangerous to take place only form too literally, but nevertheless, his run behind Banimpire is a cut above even this handicap company. He was rated 109 in that race, now down to 99, and dropped in grade(from G2 down to C2 h'cap), really does make the current 10/1 look interesting?
2, Draw - 15 is just on the fringe of being what may prove to be the favoured side? Again, a bit of an unknown, but at least he will not be trapped on the rail. If the above is true, he will have too much class to worry about being a few horse wide of the best draw?
3, Failing to settle - I trust the early money came for him when they got him to look like he could race properly? The draw may help for the group on his side will provide plenty of pace, and should be able to tuck in. There will be a small group who will race down the middle, but with Fanning in such good form I cannot see him following them?
Conclusion;
COCOZZA to win before stepping up to listed class next time.
Of the remainder:
STEVIE THUNDER drawn 4 did not stop improving, even in defeat, and I think he is a few pound above this mark of 95. It will depend on who takes them into the race on the low side, but if they are upsides inside the final furlong, I can see this one making a strong bid.
DUBAI DYNAMO is not out of it on his best form, albeit in slightly lower class, but could could get a place at big odds.
LIGHT FROM MARS is attracting money since the draw was announced. It also had a pipe-opener on the AW which may just put him right. Before his win at Newbury last year he did a similar thing. The fact that he did not follow up on that success has meant his mark has dropped to a very winnable one now. Any doubts arising in the Cocozza camp then this has the most going for him to come home with the first big handicap win of the season.
So there you have it. My blogs will appear for most of the forthcoming handicaps, and of course, the Classics ... and whenever SNOW FAIRY runs, hopefully she will get the fast ground she needs?
Have a good day ...
