Saturday 29 June 2013

IRISH DERBY June 29 2013

I am sticking with this race because it is intriguing, and not as clear cut as the odds suggest.

Curr 6.30: 12f Group 1 Irish Derby
in betting order ...

RULER OF THE WORLD is fully entitled to be favourite, but it was a muddling race in the Epsom Derby. He has steadily improved since his debut earlier in the year, not having raced at two. Entitled to be green, duly scrambled home in a maiden, but that form has not worked out well. Next came a more impressive win at Chester, matching the Group 3 grade standard and showed a good turn of foot. For a stayer, the pace of the Derby should not have suited, but again, he put distance between himself and his rivals in the final half furlong. The question is can he do the same at proper racing pace over 12f? His breeding suggest he should be a class horse, and he has done all he can by winning every race to show that he is a class horse. Today might be the day when he gets the rating to back that up.
Current odds - 1/1(even money, but likely to go off at odds on unless a rival is seriously backed)

LIBERTARIAN was behind the above at Epsom, and would also have been handicapped by the pace of the race. He won the prep race at York by outstaying his rivals, but that was a prep for the Derby, so who was fittest on the day does cloud the value of that form. However, it produced a fair, but not great, rating. Neither improved their ratings in the Derby, although their Official ratings have gone up, albeit on the low side for the big Classic race of the season. On the face of it, there is many reasons to suggest that he can turn that form around, but this flatter track will definitely suit better, and the fast going is similar to Epsom. Stamina should not be a weakness in either horse, but his main hope here is that a true run race takes the edge off Ruler's finish, and it becomes more of a battle.
Current odds - 7/2

TRADING LEATHER may have some stamina doubts on breeding, and has taken a curious route to this race. Second behind the above at York, over 10.5f, then was used as a pacemaker (effectively) in the Irish 2000gns over 8f. That was a fast pace and only got out beaten late on by a true miler's speed. The 2nd in that race went on to frank the form at Royal Ascot, but the winner was also in that race and did not show his previous form. Trading Leather then drops down to listed class over 10f a and duly bolts up, beating one of today's favourite stable mates in the process. Money for the favourite would indicate that they know how much superior he is to the one TL beat? If this race is run at a true run pace his stamina doubts might surface, but is he does truly stay the trip he is a serious rival.
Current odds - 5/1

SUGAR BOY is probably the more straight forward to quantify his chances. Beaten into 2nd place by a stablemate of the favourite in a Group 3 race on his seasonal reappearance, and got a good rating. Then went to Sandown over 10f and won their Derby trial by a head. Not such a good rating, but skipped the peculiar nature of Epsom to come straight here. Therefore he has had a less testing journey but if it was in the hope of getting an easier option, it has failed? Stamina should not be a problem, only a question whether he is good enough. If this is a sub-standard year he may be, but I get the impression that is a hope rather a firm belief?
Current odds - 10/1

GALIEO ROCK I find the most interesting prospect here. This is a horse with abundant stamina in his pedigree, and to date, has not been able to exploit his strengths. He was 3rd behind the above at Sandown in April. Ran 3rd in the Derby when not (allowed to?) use his stamina to the full when the field was bunch up coming down the hill at Epsom. Despite that, he kept going to a very respectable 3rd place. If there was any in that race that the muddling pace did not suit it was him? Given that that there is a horse in here who will take them along at a decent pace, for once he may just get a chance to show his full potential, and to earn himself a favourite's chance in the St Leger over 14f. Certainly, if you take the tenuous form line through the 4th at Epsom, he has the beating of Sugar Boy. The flatter track, stronger pace from the outset, and his own stamina requirements, he has a great chance of being in the mix if it come down to grinding out a finish?
Current odds - 10/1

FESTIVE CHEER was surplus to requirements at Epsom, if the plan was to have him take the pace on early? With the way the race developed, unsettling Dawn Approach with a slow pace and bunching the field up to give all the Ballydoyle horses a chance, in particular Mars, the doubtful stayer, it did not work in this ones favour at all. On pedigree he has a great chance, but so far the reality shows he may not be quite up to this level? Nor can I see him being much use as a pacemaker, as the complete outsider who will run independently of all stable ties, will surely take them along at a brisk pace? So unless FC is in to slow it up when that one weakens i cannot see him being involved?
Current odds - 20/1

LITTLE WHITE CLOUD was 2nd to Leading Light over 10f, and got an okay rating. The winner went on to win a 16f race at Royal Ascot. Should have no problem stepping up in trip himself, and may bring further improvement. In that respect he is like Sugar Boy, if it is a sub-standard year he has less of a gulf to bridge on what he has done so far. Not ruled out completely, but I'm sure the stable will be overjoyed if he gets a place? 
Current odds - 33/1

CAP O'RUSHES showed a fair level of form, including his latest placed run at Royal Ascot. However, not a a level that is required here?
Current odds - 66/1+

RALSTON ROAD is the one I expect to set the pace, much as he did at Royal Ascot in Leading Light's race over 16f. Headed at the 10f marker, but kept on and finished 8th. If he could keep it going over this shorter trip to the 10f marker, then he will set the race up nicely. I just hope he takes part to do that, as there is always some doubt with the gap between the two races being so short? He has won over this trip, but in much lower grade races
Current odds - 100/1+

Conclusion:
RULER OF THE WORLD is the one they will have to beat to win.

TRADING LEATHER is marginally ahead on my ratings, but they are all on the low side.

GALILEO ROCK appeals as the best each way value, as has most to gain from a true run race, and can clearly go with the pace of this grade.

Your choice?

Yes there are good races going on all over, but the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is over 16f, and I don't like speed ratings over those trips, and I'd rather wait for the Ascot horses come out and challenge for the good races still to come.

A quick reflection on the final card at Royal Ascot. Sadly the relatively fastest race was that of the ill-fated THOMAS CHIPPENDALE. In doing so, he also recorded a career best, but that is no consolation to all involved.

Those who finished behind him though, can be followed to uphold that form. Lkewise OPINION in the other 12f race, whch enabled him to get a most improved rating, and those in that race can also be followed.

Have a good day ...

Saturday 22 June 2013

ROYAL ASCOT Saturday 2013

The final blog of what has been an intense week of quality racing.

Quick review on yesterday's ratings, although the first point I will make, the 4mm of watering, plus the early shower made the times reflect the slowest going of the week!

With that in mind, the 6f 2yo race won by KIYOSHI was the relatively slowest of the day. I have not seen the race yet, but I was expecting a whole lot more from the comments made afterwards? Needless to say, even if it was only a Group 3, her rating was way below the standard.

Best rating , and by a huge margin, goes to HILLSTAR. Clear fastest time, and him coming from a low base, all help. But that was a top performance, and the placed horses did themselves no harm at all.

Beyond those two ratings, the rest were not very inspiring, as the next three races barely improved their mark at all, and the final handicap was below it? That I will put down to the fact they may have gone off too fast in that?

SKY LANTERN could not have been more impressive in the manner of her win, and she had no control over the stop start pace it was run at. They bunched up round the home turn, but they fanned out well enough, so there were no hard luck stories in behind. As I said yesterday, this horse is blessed with tactical speed which gets her into a race, when she can show another gear.

On to today.

Ascot 2.30: 7f Listed Chesham Stakes 2yo.

I will leave this to market movers. It is a waste of time pointing out the highest rated from a lower level grade, only to find even an unraced one can pop up an exceed it. Especially over this 7f, which brings demands on stamina, as yet barely seen.
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Ascot 3.05: 12f Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes

MOUNT ATHOS is clear top rated, but will have to improve upon that to hold off the young improvers.

In fact, the remainder are very closely rated and hard to rule any out.

EKTIHAAM is the one that has attracted the early money though.
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Ascot 3.45: 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

SOCIETY ROCK is a quirky horse, but if he gets away on terms, especially here, is the one they have to beat.

GORDON LORD BYRON has yet to hit the high rating he achieved last season, but the 3rd place behind the above last time shows he is getting there.

MINCE is another who has yet to reach the dizzy highs of last season, but even that is probably just a tad below the above pair at their best.

ROSDHU QUEEN is a horse I have to give a mention to, even if she has no chance on ratings, and with all the allowances. However, she is a battler, and if any falter in the final furlong she will be there, digging in. I just feel this is a too big an ask this early in the season, and I would have rather brought her along at a more steady build up before tackling experienced colts and geldings at the very top of their game. That said, her trainer has put her here ....?

The Australian horses usually do well here, but the above on their A-game should see of any sub-Black Caviar class, and that more than doubly applies to the rest of the field.
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Ascot 4.25: 6f Class 2 Wokingham Stakes h'cap.

Too many to discus in detail. The best pace looks on the high side, but their are a couple on the far side to take them along. So I'll take a pair from each side against the field, as I know they have a few lbs in hand.

Low numbers:

POOLE HARBOUR was my early selection, and if he puts it all in he has a good chance of winning a big one. He should get a clear run on that side too.
Current odds 25/1

ANCIENT CROSS also just scrapes in at the bottom of the handicap, and despite being a 9yo, his win at York give him an excellent chance.

High side:

DUKE OF FIRENZE is another early selection. He is not as well in in as some, but is progressing at a rate of knots. He has got the plumb high draw against the stand's side rail, where the winner came from in the last yesterday. The danger today is more may come over this side and their could be some hard luck stories in behind. He is battle hardened now, so hopefully he will be okay?
Current odds 7/1 favourite

REX EMPERATOR has been backed several times and failed to deliver, but his last run over 7f gives him a great chance of making amends.
Current odds around 9/1
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Ascot 5.00: 12f Class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh h'cap

This is yet another race where the lightly raced 4yo improvers face the older, seasoned campaigners, and as I think it will be one of the former group that come out on top, I am not delving into ratings that are meaningless.
No surprise to see it is those who hit the early market movers.
STENCIVE, a 4yo who clearly will have to improve to win this, and was a beaten favourite last time out.

USTURA is also a 4yo, who won his race, but it was a modest affair. Much more to do here?

Both have been backed

CARAVAN ROLL ON is one of the seniors this one, and I have a soft spot for. Difficult to keep fit, and so is lightly race for a 5yo. C&D winner, but will have to be on top form here.
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Ascot 5.35: 21f Class 2 Queen Alexandra Stakes non-h'cap

Lucky for me I can round off early, as these distance races have little speed figure value?

This race has been won by a top staying handicapper, as well as those not making the grade in pattern races.

SHAHWARDI from France represents the higher end, and if going and trip are okay, then probably has an excellent chance.

CHILBERTA KING has also dipped the odd hoof into Class 1 races, without great success recently, and the fast ground will not suit.

They head the market, and with jumps trainer already providing one winner yesterday, COURTESY CALL
will also be popular.

MAD MOOSE will be one to watch out for, at the start at least? He may not get more than a few yards with them starting so near the stables, but, and it is a big but, if he does consent to race the young WTD could be in with a chance of bagging his first Royal ascot winner?
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Well that is me done for. Next blog will be Saturday when I can concentrate on one race.

Have a good day

Friday 21 June 2013

ROYAL ASCOT Friday 2013

Well, on the run of  good day, bad day, today should be a good day? I hope.

However, a quick reflection on yesterday's ratings ...

Once again, the 2yo race took the honours. The opening race setting a new 2yo course record, the relative fastest time(against my standard times), but only just. In truth, with conditions the way they were, the times should have been quicker than they were.

So, NO NAY NEVER did not quite match the Grade rating, but it was an excellent rating for all of those involved in the finish.

RIPOSTE' race was next best, and improved his rating, and with a big plus. ROCA TUMU likewise, in the 3yo handicap.. Elidor was the only other to improve a rating, emphasing the point I made above. With this class of horse running, on those conditions which were faster than the day before, their race times should have been better.

On to today ...

Ascot 2.30: 6f Group 3 Albany Stakes 2yo Fillies

SANDIVA is my highest rated, but I have very few rated at all.

RED LADY is better than her figures according to her jockey, K Fallon, and whose opinion I take note of, and may represent a small ew value bet?

WEDDING RING should also be in the mix, but the favourite looks to have an outstanding chance on known form.

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Ascot 3.05:12f Group 2 King Edward Stakes 3yo

BATTLE OF MARENGO is again the only one with a serious rating, and from the Group 1 Derby. I think he was sacrificed a little in that race for the sake of 'team Ballydoyle'. He controlled the slow pace enough to bring Dawn Approach briefly to the front, and then was sent on again to make it a long run for home. He did we ll to finish where he did in the circumstances. This race is his to lose.

 MUTASHADED won his last race well enough and is the most like danger to the above.

GREATWOOD needs softer ground and I can see him being pulled out?

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Ascot 3.45: 8f Group1 Coronation Stakes 3yo

On first glance this looks a match between the two Guineas winners, but their wide draw on the round mile does throw it wide open. However, in a match between the two, I think SKY LANTERN possibly has the greater tactical speed than JUST THE JUDGE. The actual ratings are quite close, but that may not reflect the way the race ends.

The French horse, SIYENICA, has to handle the track and the quick conditions, but is a high class filly.

BIG BREAK was behind the favourite in the Irish 2000gns on his first run, and should improve.

PAVLOSK has to improve in this grade.

VIZTORIA looks to have going issues?

MAUREEN who immediately brings up a mental picture of 'the special one'(context football), but that is an Arsenal thing. However, she looked to be going somewhere in her trial run, but has been beaten in both Guineas. However, slightly more favourably drawn than her two conquerers, she could do a lot better here?

Overall, I think it will be a battle of wits between the top two, and Jamie Spencer will do his best to keep Sky Lantern on his inside. If they spend too much time sorting that out I can see an upset coming. But if Sky Lantern gets a clear run she will come out on top.

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Ascot 4.25: 10f Listed Wolferton h'cap

Of those in the top order of the betting: Three have yet to race this season; One, the favourite, is stepping up in grade; One, is coming down two grades; and four got their ratings in this grade. Adjusting for weight carried are as follows:

FATTSOTA from Class 2 Current odds 12/1

TWO FOR TWO from Class 2 Current odds 14/1

BANA WU from Group 3 Current odds 14/1

Given only 2lbs covers those three, I think the value lies in BANA WU, and a possible quick double for Hughsie? His best form, including the rating race, has been on GF conditions.

TWO FOR TWO never got into the race on Wednesday, but it is a negative?

FATTSOTA whose rating came on good to soft, and most good form leans that way, is a negative unless they do hit a shower this time?

ALBASHARAH, the favourite, is unbeaten and is probably much better than his course form shows, but he needs to be?

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Ascot 5.00: 16f Group 3 Queens Vase 3yo

I am not a fan of these longer distance races, so I will give it a miss. But for those looking for the placepot selections, I say follow the money. This is down to big improving horse, and only the stable tend to know who they are?

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Ascot 5.35: 7f Class 2 Buckingham Palace h'cap

Again, of the first half a dozen in the betting, I have three who are clear, and two of those are equal rated.

DREAM TUNE whose rating came on GS going, but next time over C&D on GF he was not beaten far, less that 3 lengths. He raced alone for much of that race, and is drawn on the edge again, but on the stand's side.
Could give jockey the top jock title too ?

CAMPANOLOGY get his rating from his latest performance, and improved upon his previous rating. That was over 8f, but his last win was over 7f. Drawn next to the above so should get a nice tow into the race. Ridden by J Murtagh, and has a very good chance if the stand's side is the place to be?

BERTIEWHITLLE got his rating when finishing just ahead of  Dream Tune over C&D on the same going as today. He is drawn on the low side, so you have both angles covered?

It is a very wide open h'cap and you need to be where the pace is, as well as good form coming into it. I only look at the first few in the betting, which may change as the race gets closer.

Have a good day ..

Thursday 20 June 2013

ROYAL ASCOT Thursday 2013

Tricky day ahead. Going changes by the hour I should not wonder?

I have to say, Gold Cup day has always been my least favourite day of the five, and that goes back to when the Saturday card was described a 'Ascot Heath' day. Peasants day to you and me. The clothing rules got relaxed, and the racing was always competitive. Of course, the fact that the fashionista's take over even more air time on this day is what really kills it. Plus that speed figures rarely matter much in these long distance stakes races, so it has a different strategy, which I am less comfortable with.

So with that, and the weather, I am not very motivated to do a in depth look at any of today's races. So be forewarned!

Before I do flick through the card, time to reflect on yesterday's races.

Pride of place goes to the feature race, and the winner, Al Kazeen, who recorded the clear fastest time of the day. He really did improve on his previous rating, largely thanks to the runner up, Mukhadram. He took them along at a pace that gave him a chance of winning, and very nearly pulled it off. Unlike Camelot's pacemaker, Windsor Castle, who did not make it to the front. He would have gone faster in an attempt to draw the finish out of the field. It highlighted what I said yesterday about Camelot. He does not have a turn of foot to finish races, but he can cruise at a very high speed. The discussion afterwards as to whether he is 'no longer any good' or was 'never that good' missed this point completely? He will still win races, indeed Group 1 races, when things go right, and his pacemaker can dominate from the start. The O'Brien team will have to avoid the cream at this level though. I also think that it is this horse's pace that he sees as "The best I have ever had". My guess is that that it could stick with the likes of So You Think on the training gallops without any great effort? Let that take nothing away from the first two home here, They are top drawer, at 10f at least. If Mukhadram can be relaxed in a race, he too could get the extra 2f of the 'Arc or King George.

Despite the above, the one for the future is Rizeena. To catch up with the flying American filly was brilliant enough, but to prick her ears on the line .. Well frankly, that is just taking the piss? She matched the high Grade 2 standard, and will clearly be the best 2yo filly around. I put her right up there with Acclamation, who did a similar thing back when she came to this meeting as a 2yo.

The quartet in the last race should also be followed up, as they put daylight between themselves and a very good field.

Alas, that is my enthusiasm burnt out ...

Ascot 2.30: 5f Group 2 Norfolk Stakes 2yo
Latest price 2/1 .. if you are quick
Only one horse has a rating of any merit.

COACH HOUSE - He won a Listed race at the Curragh last time on good to firm, having won on soft previously. Both were small field events, so this larger field, and the occasion could get to her, but he looks solid enough if he gets off to a level break. To record a good time in a small field usually indicates he has solid race pace, and he saw it out very well. He has over a stone on these on my ratings, which can only be based on known form.

When I say that IFWECAN has the next best rating, you get the picture? He is a 20/1+  shot. The unknown improver will be the only danger.

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Ascot 3.05: 12f Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes 3yo Fillies

Tricky race, as most are stepping up from 10f, which can be a positive or a negative?

ALIVE ALIVE O is my top rated, who beat her rivals silly with a smart turn of foot in a Listed race at Navan. Every likelyhood of a staying the extra two furlongs. That was on yielding, having previously won on heavy. Will appreciate any ease in the going.
Latest price 2/1

JUST PRETENDING has a bigger step up in trip, having finished 3rd in the Irish 1000gns. That form over a mile is very solid, with Gale Force Ten winning yesterday. More commendable if she is a true stayer. Today will be the acid test. Ease in the going will not bother her, so only the trip will keep her out of the frame.
Latest price  15/2

THE LARK represents proper 12f credentials having finished behind Talent in the Oaks, 12f  Epsom. Ground on the easy side that day, and made the step up from 10f on faster. The Oaks was a muddling one from a time point of view, but I felt the winner was a real stayer. So just because The Lark ran well in it, her rating is still well below Group standard, so she will need to improve again, and I suspect that any rain would help?
Non-runner
WINSILI has an equal rating to the above, from her Listed win over 10f, when beating the above comfortably. Making the gradual steps up in trip, whchi breeding suggests she will improve for, but also indicates that the faster ground she has race on so far, would be her preferred surface?
Latest price 7/2 ...well backed

HOLLOWINA is only just behind these on ratings going into the race, but I suspect that she is less likely to improve to the level of Group 2 standard.
Latest price 50/1+

ELIK will have his supporters, but from the same mark as the above, has to improve an awful lot to get into it. Shrewd trainer/jockey combo notwithstanding, I think it may be a step too far this time around. Well bred filly who is going the right way, but so far she has only shown she is good, and she will need to be very good to win this. She may well have that 'unknown' factor, we will see?
Latest price 9/1

The rest will struggle  on known form.

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Ascot 3.45: 20f Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup ....(yawn)

No, it is a good race, lots of runners, some very good ...

SADDLER'S ROCK I like because he has been here before, beaten twice, but now as a 5yo, aimed and trained specifically for this race .. It just could be 3rd time lucky?
Latest price 8/1+

EARL OF TINSDAL will need the rain, lots of it but has enough class to be a sound ew chance - Thanks to Ben Linfoot of the Sporting Life for highlighting this one!
Latest price 16/1 ... if it has rained?
RITE OF PASSAGE is getting older, and more rivals to beat this time around.
Latest price 8/1+

TIMES UP is probably better at shorter.
Latest price 12/1

SIMENON did not fare so well when upped in grade..
Latest price 7/1

The rest you have to see if they really have the stamina for this test. An upset is on the cards if one does?

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Aaargh, two races to go, let's hope they are nice and easy

Ascot 4.25: 8f Class 2 Britannia h'cap 3yo ......( Just great, a 30 runner, mid-season 3yo h'cap! Brilliant)

At this time of year horses of this age are really starting to develop into their full potential, and big gains in ratings follow ... Meaning, the ones they have are just history?   I should have ratings for these. I really should?
Ooops. Blank page ...

CAPE PERON - The current favourite. Ah yes, over a stone behind his Official Rating. Next!
Latest price 7/1 ... and easing?

MAPUTO - I like this one. Oh, only a few lbs below its OR, and from a lower grade. Next!
Latest price 8/1

LLAREGYB - Oooo, only slightly behind its OR, from a C5 h'cap. Next!
Latest price 14/1

SECRET TALENT - Not so secret. Hughie Morrison, you clever boy ... has a chance! Albeit, needs more.
Latest price 16/1

SO BELOVED - Lbs to find on OR, up a grade too. Mr Doyle, work a miracle if you can? Next!
Latest price 16/1

QUEENSBERRY RULES - Near, but not quite. Moore/Haggas combo though?
Latest price 14/1+

MARKET TOWN - Similar to above, with both trainer and jockey booking?
Latest price 16/1+

HAAFAGUINEA - Shame, a bit to find, but will do better than most if it rains?
Non runner

HOMAGE - A plus!, A plus! ... I'm so excited, I just can't wait, err whatever the next line is, I'm so excited. A good claimer on board too. From a Class 3, but it is Noseda, so that means bugger all! Clever boy, him??
Latest price 20/1 ... but being nibbled?

ROCA TUMU - You're having a laugh? A stone to find on OR. Oh, it Irish trained, that's okay then?
Latest price 25/1+

SEA SHANTY - Not quite got the hang of handicapping Mr Hannon, have you? We know he is better than he has shown, but he keeps winning and goes up in the weights all the time. Find a stone and you're in with a shout.
Latest price 20/1 .. and drifting

NEWSTEAD ABBEY and SHEBIBI are set to battle it out again, and both are just short of their OR. Given that everything else is hovering around their OR's, they just need to keep improving?
Latest prices 20/1+ & 25/1+?
I'm bored now. We are up to the 25/1+ shots so if you want a bigger price winner, tough!

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Buggar! When said two races to go I was wrong ... Let's pretend that the 5.35 doesn't count, as it is for 3yo's over 12f, and is twice the guesswork of the above. Oh just the one line then

Ascot 5.35: 12f Class 2 King George V h'cap 3yo

RED RUNWAY to give the Doyle laddie  the top jockey status going into day 4. Not too mention a big price winner here?
Latest price 20/1+
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Ascot 5.00 : 10f Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes 3yo

CHOPIN - He did not do too badly in the muddling mix up known as the 2013 Derby, and as such, this course and pace may suit better?
Latest price 11/2

REMOTE is stepping out of h'cap company, and has a bit to find.
Latest price  5/2

INDIAN CHIEF comes from the York Classic trial, a Group 2 which produced a sound platform for at least two to go on and perform well. This will be the 3rd. Clearly kept back for this, and is a worthy favourite, yet he is not .... at the moment. Watch this space!
Latest price 11/2 and drifting .. Are they mad, or just waiting/
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Well I hope you enjoy the racing as much as I have writing this blog ... On second thoughts, no, go on ...

Have a good day ...


p.s. I will update on the weather/going status around midday, if you care to scroll down this far on a second visit?

No change in the I am just adding the latest prices.

Wednesday 19 June 2013

ROYAL ASCOT - Wednesday 2013

Before I begin, a quick reflection on yesterday. Dawn Approach put up the relatively fastest time, and increased his rating with me , but not by much, as it did not match his official rating. The messy nature of the race did not help. Looking at today's Jersey stakes, I cannot help wishing Dundonnell had gone for this, because he did not get the fast pace he needed, and did not settle.
With no front runners in the Kings Stand, it was left to the natural speed of Reckless Abandon to tow them along. As I feared, racing down the centre left plenty of room for him to shift to his left. Probably cost him a place, but would have needed more cover to win. There will be other days

Indeed, today is one.

Ascot 2.30: 7f Group 3 Jersey Stakes 3yo
(in betting order)

GALE FORCE TEN - No surprise to see this take over as favourite, and he is my clear top rated. I fully expect him to uphold the Irish 2000gns form, which sadly, Magician failed to do yesterday. The fast ground will be no problem, and the drop back may also improve his chance.
Current odds  9/2

GARSWOOD - This 7f trip is the same as his impressive win in the Free Handicap that was his Guineas trial. Although scoring the same rating for both, his trainer was clearly expecting more. Despite having a lot to find on my ratings, he is still clear of the remainder. Which, on paper makes it look a bit of a sub-standard Group 3? On my ratings, it is between these two.
Current odds  9/2

Even the official ratings reflect this, but there are many in this I have not ratings at all this season, but the best of the rest are;
DON'T BOTHER ME and PARLIAMENT SQUARE.
Current odds  50/1 and 25/1 respectively
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Ascot 3.05: 8f Group 2 Duke of Cambridgeshire Stakes Fillies and Mares ...
(and a possibility for the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes next year?)

DUNTLE - I have her as joint top rated with the second fav, and both are progressive. She has gone a similar way this term and will be hard to beat.
Current odds  5/2

CHIGUN - She has come a slightly different route, but the same resulting figures. Same rating, same form figures - 21. They both look the type to win this, and it is hard to separate them .. before the race that is?
Current odds  3/1

Of the remainder that I have ratings for, both DANK and THISTLE BIRD tie in with the above. However, the first two do have stronger claims from 2012 season.
Current odds  4/1 and 7/1 respectively

DANCEWITHTHEDEVIL has a long layoff to overcome, but is interesting that R.Varian has pitch her in this for a come back? Unknown quantity.
Current odds  20/1

SARKLYLA boast some solid French form, and if handling the track and going, she could be a danger to all.
Current odds  8/1
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Ascot 3.45: 10f  Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes

AL KAZEEM - She is just edging favouritism on the strength of his last run. The rating for that was okay for a small field event. However, he will have to step up again if he is to be a genuine top Group 1 performer.
There did not look anything dubious about his win over his main rival in the betting, and they renew their battle today.
Current odds  9/4

CAMELOT - Once heralded as the next great thing, but has lost a bit of image. I think he is in the So You Think type of runner. No real turn of foot, but can grind out results. He will have a pacemaker here and it will be no surprise to me if he reverses form with the above. J O'B will sit him quietly out the back and will come with a long run for home as the straighten up 2.5f out.
Current odds  5/2

MAXIOS - He could be the fly in the ointment as far as the above two are concerned, especially if the ratings of that pair remain what they were last time. This French challenger boast sound form in a progressive season, but this will be his biggest challenge. Both trip, on this stiff track, and fast going are a bit of an unknown territory, but the race might pan out to suit?
Current odds  5/1

THE FUGUE - She would have strong claims at his best from last season, which was a long one? Not raced yet this season, but has conditions to suit. Tough ask first time out though.
Current odds  5/1

SAINT BAUDOLINO - This is another coming into this after a lay off, since race at Meydan in February. Lightly raced and could be anything this season?
Current odds  10/1

Of the remainder, old timers like RED CADEAUX and SIDE GLANCE will do their best, and MUKHADRAM faces a stiffer test if adopting similar tactics to Sandown, but will be keen to take over from the pacemaker when he fades, I shouldn't wonder? Which leaves AFSARE who is also making his debut here, after a long season last year. None can be ruled completely, but they do have their own issues to deal with first.

_____________________________________________
I could spend a long time going through this field, and still not be close to finding the winner, such is the nature of trainers keeping the true ability hidden as best they can. So instead, I will run through the ones I have rated on this season's form, and hope the winner is amongst them?

Ascot 4.25: 8f Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup h'cap

PRINCE OF JOHANNE is getting on in years but is a previous winner of the race. His second in a Listed race, along with his weight here, does give him an excellent chance of repeating his earlier triumph.
Current odds  12/1

BURKE'S ROCK is my second best, and her canny trainer has kept her back after winning a Goodwood Listed contest. Has Ascot specialist, Frankie Dettori on board, and it may be a help to be drawn high.
Current odds  14/1

MORAN GRA has been pottering around in h'caps in Ireland, but the last run was run in a good time. On the same rating as the above, and receives weight from all bar one.
Current odds  22/1

SWEET LIGHTNING at the top of the h'cap will need his rider's claim to be of full value, and a heavy shower of rain would help. Class performer, and Ascot turf is more forgiving than most 'firm' grounds.
Current odds  25/1

TEA FOR TWO is just behind the last pair mentioned, on ratings, and has the in-form trainer/jockey combo to add to his credentials. High drawn.
Current odds  18/1

DON'T CALL ME and NAVAJO CHIEF are on the same rating, and are both solid Class 2 h'cappers. The former drawn low, the latter high.
Current odds  33/1 and 28/1 respectively

STIRRING BALLAD is the last of the ones I rated highly. His trainer clearly thinks he has improved recently, as I always felt his mark was pushing the limit of his ability? He is the current favourite in a very open race, and is drawn low.
Current odds  8/1

These are not the only ones that could win. Course winner EXCELLENT  GUEST is an example. Needs to improve on his 7f Victoria Cup win, but his trainer has kept him fresh of his latest mark, and at his best he will come late and fast. Current odds  16/1
There are far too many that fit into that category though.

_______________________________________________
This is another race I am not going to spend time on with so little information.

Ascot 5.00: 5f Group 2 Queen Mary Stake 2yo fillies

BELDALE MEMORY is justified as favourite.Clear top rated, and looks very smart.
Current odds  4/1

RIZEENA is the next on my ratings, and in the betting, but has nearly a stone to find on the above
Current odds  6/1

The rest could be anything, but I have no idea how well they will run today.

____________________________________________
The final race today, and is so tricky I am not even going to research ratings on it.
Instead, I will rely on Mr Fallon's judgment of racing qualities, and he has always been sweet on this one.

Ascot 5.35: 8f Sandrigham Listed Fillies h'cap

NARGYS - Has only run once this season, in a Group 2, 1000gns trial behind Hot Snap. Drops down a grade here, and was very consistent last season. It is worth remembering that the 1000gns winner failed to show her form in that race, but went on to win? So the same could happen here.
Current odds  16/1

HINT OF TINT is the only other one I could also give a mention to,, and could build on his 2nd in the Group 3  race last time. Wears a hood for the first time.
Current odds  9/1

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Well that is Day 2 done and dusted ... These blogs may get shorter and shorter if they do not come up with a winner?

Have a good day ....

Note - edit changes on mistakes spotted @ 1.25pm Wednesday

Tuesday 18 June 2013

ROYAL ASCOT - Tuesday 2013

More of a race by race blog today, and following the pattern throughout the week.

The weather is the unpredictable thing, and could have a big bearing on the key races. But I will edit up to 9.0am on race day to take acoount of that. The going is good at present (Monday), but showers are possible. However, if the predicted high temperatures with sunshine by midday Tuesday, then I expect the course to dry out to slightly on the fast side of good. Going stick 8.9 to 9.1 on the straight, round 8.3

ASCOT 2.30: 8f Group1 Queen Anne Stakes

ANIMAL KINGDOM is the one to beat, if he handles the track and occasion. No doubt he has been kept back with this race in mind, and is a top class performer. Odds are too short to be of any value, except for the wealthy punter that can afford a reverse? That makes the the place/possible upset more of interest.
Current price 2/1

CHIL THE KITE looks the most interesting, providing it does not dry out too much. He has a bit to find on ratings, but would not be the greatest surprise if he reversed recent form.
Current price 33/1

SOVEREIGN DEBT got closest to the absent Farhh, and although well beaten that day it is still strong form. He has run well at this track, which is a bonus.
Current price 16/1

ALJAMAAHEER just behind the above in the Lockinge, and finished well from the rear. and could be the most progressive of the four to come on from that race.
Current price 12/1

TRUMPET MAJOR has no chance the three above, unless there is a heavy downpour. He is a classy hrse in the soft.
Current price 33/1

ELUSIVE KATE has a rating from last season that puts her well in the mix. Whether she will put in this time after a big break is another question. A note from a recent gallop suggested that she was showing temperament issues, and that is not a good sign. She had a tough campaign last year and it might beginning to show. I would not be confident that she is in full heart after such a bad spring until after this race?
Current price 8/1

PENITENT won this two seasons ago, and has run some great races in between. But this term looks to have a bit to find, and would benefit from more give.
Current price 40/1

GABRIAL is the only other one that has a rating that puts him near this grade. He needs to improve, but is on an upward curve. He wears cheek pieces for the first time, and has the assistance of the inform K. Fallon on board. Not without a place chance at least.
Current price 33/1

GREGORIAN will do well to confirm placings with the above, on this very different track. A solid runner, but perhaps better in the lesser grades.
Current price 18/1

Of the remainder;
TRADE STORM has not run since Meydan. Turf form not good enough.
LIBRANNO is best at 7f
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER would be a major upset on all known form.
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ASCOT 3.05: 5f Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes

SHEA SHEA represents a really strong overseas challenge on his Meydan form. But this is Ascot. Not every horse takes to the surface, nor the minor undulations. It is also a stiff 5f, with a climb to the line almost all the way. Reasons enough to look for an upset or each way chance, as in the first race.
But having said all that, the way this horse dismissed Sole Power on his favoured fast surface puts the home contingent with something to find.
Current price 2/1

SOLE POWER has the best rating from his earlier win. Reunited with J Murtagh is a major plus, as a late thrust off a fast pace is what he needs. It did not work out for him last time, where he was behind some rivals here today. His record at Ascot is not good, and I put that down to the surface here. He likes to bounce off
really quick ground, this surface does not give him the same feel, and more so today if it remains only good.
Current price 9/1

RECKLESS ABANDON is a horse I like. Quirky but talented. He was my highest rated 2yo last season, and first time out against his elders he clocked another solid one. With improvement from that first race he is right up there with the best. The big problem as I see it, is that he is drawn away from Shea Shea, where the is a possible front runner, and they come down the middle of the track, and Reckless can often abandon a straight line? Represents the biggest danger to the favourite, but will need things to go right.
Current price 5/1

SPIRIT QUARTZ I make the next best of the 'home-based' runners. He is drawn highest of all, nearest the stand side rail, which makes quite a collection of high class horses drawn this side, but all need to be taken into the race. On the other hand, if they do come to stand side it might leave Shea Shea isolated in the middle of the track? he would get a clear run out there, whereas there are likely to be hard luck stories with the others. This horse will try and run his race whatever, and has every chance if he gets the run of the race.
Current price 16/1

SHAME EXPRESS may look a bit short on his international rating, but t is always wise to respect the Aussie runners. He will have Shea Shea for company on the far side which should be an intriguing contest in itself .. the rugby heavyweights, South Africa v Australia? How it will end we will see, but both have to handle these different conditions.
Current price 10/1

HEERAAT, and KINGSGATE NATIVE are the last of the runners with a decent rating this term, but the former has a bit to find with the latter, and that is drawn close to Shea Shea, for better or worse?

SWISS SPIRIT is only just behind those two, and is improving. Whether this race is a bit early in the season and halts that upward trend is the question.
Current price 8/1
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ASCOT 3.45: 8F Group 1 St James Palace Stakes 3yo's

DAWN APPROACH mmmn, I keep hearing how this horse would be a worthy odds-on shot without his Derby run. I am in a minority, because I base my ratings on time, that thinks he is vastly overrated, and until he proves it different, so he will remains so. His 2000 Guineas win produce a rating only 1lb better than his Coventry Stakes win a year ago ... and on my figures, never improved upon that.
Having said that, if it were soft here, he would be a banker, but only because most rivals would prefer it fast. How much it dries out during the day, as they are predicting a hot, humid day, with the possibility of thunderstorms?
The shape of the race is quit predictable if the Guineas run is anything to go by. Pacemaker Leitir Mor will take them along at a brisk pace from the off, with Dawn Approach following. If the pack, particularly the O'Brien trio, they will let George Vancouver set the pace at a more sustainable pace, irrespective of what the Bolger pair do. Being able to finish is going to be key. Dawn Approach will maintain a fast pace for 6 of the 8 furlongs, but a repeat of the Guineas run will see him slow up in the final 2f. is possible, for all the hype about the Derby distance not being a problem, he may even revert to sprinting! Those final 2f are why the overall time was relatively slow on Guineas day. Strong chance, but vulnerable. Even if Leitir Mor only goes a 'sensible' pace this horse has not the turn of foot that some of the others have?
Current price 6/4

DUNDONNELL is a horse I really like, and disappointed things did not turn out well enough for him to contend the 8f Classics. He had a better rating than the favourite as a 2yo, and although his last run was not anywhere near that, at least he showed he is on his way back. The muddling pace set by Toranado in his trial race did not suit any better than when beaten last season by him. He will get the fast pace he thrives on here. The other positive, on his second run last season, following a decent debut, he put a time that was only marginally slower than the mighty FRANKEL did on the day, comparatively for each distance against standard. If he does the same here, Dawn Approach will see a new backside disappearing in front of him in the final furlong. He does not want any rain though.
Current price 20/1

MAGICIAN also will like it fast. He has a similar winning profile to Dawn Approach in the Irish 2000gns, in that Trading Leather set a blistering pace for a long, and he went on to win well next time, and Magician swept through late, faster than anything else. Two big differences though. The overall time was, relatively, the fastest of the day. Magician did not just go faster than slow horses, he stayed on strongly. On the basis of that, it is possible that O'Brien will split his tactics, and have Magician alongside, or near Dawn Approach, and try and out speed him to the line? The big danger is that Leitir Mor's pace might be even quicker than that of Trading Leather? Whatever plan they come up with, I would say he is more than capable of matching and surpassing the favourite.
Current price 5/2

MARS will be better suited by this 8f if my Derby blog is anything to go by. The dam side of his pedigree has more speed than stamina, although he may well step up to 10f, possibly as a 4yo. Today, he needs to be closer to the favourite, but not at the expensive of his overall speed. he was lucky in the 2000gns that he did not get involved in the first 2f dash that undid so many. He just needs to be taken into the race steadily, and I see George Washington doing that job for him. He has a lot of ground to make up on ratings, but the best is yet to come. If any of the above falter, he should be the one to pick up the pieces.
Current price 11/1

TORANADO is a horse that has not run a true run race to get a decent rating in my book. This will be his chance if good enough?
Current price 4/1

GLORY AWAITS has a great chance to show that his second in the 2000gns was not a fluke. He certainly matched Dawn Approach's pace at the finish, but I am guessing things will be different here. He is another who might try and use stamina not speed, but it will not be easy.
Current price 25/1

MSHAWISH is an unknown quantity from France. Lightly raced, and seemingly not top level. Perhaps looking for kudos in being here, and place money would be very welcome? He could of course be a hidden gem?
Current price 33/1
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That takes us to halfway. the next race and the last are 2yo races, so with limited ratings to go on I will be brief on those. Rating fall into two camps; those get a decent rating better than the grade standard, and those that fail to get a decent rating in better grade races. I will highlight the best of both.

ASCOT 4.25: 6f Group 2 Coventry Stakes 3yo colts

THUNDER STRIKE is top rated, but failed to better the Listed grade.
Current price 9/1

PARBOLD bettered the Class 3 grade on his only run to date. Very speedy.
Current price 14/1

JALLOTA ran second to Parbold, and the marginally improved on his next run in a Class 3
Current price 33/1

RIVERBOAT SPRINGS was behind Thunder Strike, and further below Listed grade
Current price 10/1

STUBBS was well below Listed grade, and is only just above those who were close to Class 4 grade.
Current price 3/1

How much each will improve is guesswork, but these are nearest to Group grade, but still need to improve.
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ASCOT 5.00: 20f Class 2 h'cap The Ascot Stakes

MUBARAZA comes out on top and should run well.
Current price 9/1

TIGER CLIFF beat the above, but is now worse off. Again, every chance.
Current price 5/1

MYSTERIOUS  MAN is little behind those two, and has a handy low weight.
Current price  16/1

JUSTIFICATION is a very close behind the above on figures.
Current price 6/1

WELL SHARP and TANTALISING are the only others that have a mark near this grade on this season's form. But SURAJ has bit of class if up to it on his first run.
Current prices, respectively 10/1, 33/1, 16/1
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ASCOT 5.35: 5f Listed Windsor Castle Stakes 2yo Fillies

STEVENTON STAR is a surprising top rated, but nevertheless, exceeded the C3 grade to do so.
Current price 14/1

SLEEPER KING has twice topped the C3 grade, improving on the last one.
Current price 14/1

JUSTICE DAY has a similar rating to the above, without matching the C3 grade.
16/1

HAIKBIDIAC is just below them but failing in a Listed race
Current price 20/1

Everyone else I rated either fell well short in higher grades, or only did so so in C4 and below. Improvement is not in my capacity to predict. However, I would think from the above an upset is likely?

Remember, the going is verging on good to firm, but showers are forecast forthe area.

Have a good day



Saturday 15 June 2013

Sandown 2.20 June 15

It is difficult to choose a race from the multiple options today. With much of the cream waiting for Ascot next week, there are surprisingly strong fields out today. However, with the weather being a little unpredictable, Sandown looks the safest bet to remain dry, at least until 2.30pm I hope?

Sandown 2.20: 8f Class 2 h'cap
(in betting order, as of 5.30am);

ASHAADD:
This race is for 3yo's upwards, and most trainers tend to leave their 3yo's out of battling with their elders until a bit later in the season, despite the weight allowance. ASHAADD is the only 3yo in the field.
That said, his win last time in a C3, for 3yo's only, was top drawer. But despite that, and Ryan Moore in the saddle and stable in top form, I am not keen on any horse going up in grade, and up off a mark that is beyond what I have. He will have to improve again to win this.
Current price 3/1
DANCHAI:
He has not run since the beginning of May, but for a horse who only had one run at 2, two runs at 3, and only that one this term does suggest he is a bit fragile? Mind he must be pretty special to be kept in training, although, being a gelding there is not much else he could do? He was made favourite for his last run, but given his history there is nothing to say he will improve for the race. He seemed to handle the faster ground okay, and the drop back to a mile may help him settle better. Not one I have anything in hand though.
Current price 7/1
ROSERROW:
He won over the C&D last time, but only in a C4 race. Raise mark leaves big questions if he can step up again in a better class race.
Current price 11/1
BANCNUANAHERIANN:
I had him down as a possible selection for the Hunt Cup, as he does well at Ascot, so a little surprised he is here, and risking a penalty for the bigger prize. He also won his last race over 9f, at Goodwood, in a C3  event. This course should suit if there is plenty of pace, but like the above, has nothing in hand on ratings this term, although capable of better from last season.
Current price 12/1
NORSE BLUES:
This would have liked more rain, and as bookies would like a couple to drop out to reduce the field to 15 runners, if it dries up, he could one of their hopes. That said, he did win a C2 on GF last time at Thirsk. This is a stiffer track and may not suit quite as well. Because of that win he got raised above the mark I gave for the race, so he is in a similar category to the above, needs to improve to win?
Current price between 10/1 and 12/1
TRADER JACK:
On the face of it this is another who might prefer it softer. He did okay on GF 2 seasons ago on debut, then followed up on soft for his only win. Given how the summer was last term, he would have done well to avoid soft ground, and although he drew blank, he was in top C2 races. His only run this year was over the C&D in a C3 race where he was 5th. Now I had that down as a good run, but has been dropped a lb. If he can handle the faster ground he is better equipped to win this than the above, and the stable are bang in form.
Current price 12/1
GEORGE GURU:
He has run twice over Goodwood's 7f course and improved his rating both times. If this stiffer track and extra furlong brings any further improvement then he is a danger to all. Now whilst he did okay over the C&D last season, most of his 8f runs were on the easier AW tracks. Is it the 7f on turf that has brought out the best in him, which he cam carry into a stiff 8f is the big question.
Current price 10/1 to 15/1
VAINGLORY:
Sprang a surprise win at Epsom last time, although fully capable of winning such a race. Just a tad inconsistent. However, over a long career he has not been able to put up back-to-back wins, but has put in some good efforts. The trip and track not a problem, nor is the going. But his new mark does not give any in hand. Was slipping down the h'cap, but this is above his highest winning rating.
Current price is hovering around the 12/1 mark
FIRE SHIP:
Only the one run this term, over C&D where he just failed to match his current rating. His rating got a bit skewed after finishing 3rd in a C1 race. Clearly capable of running to that mark, but needs to improve again if to give weight all round here. Not impossible, as he is on an upward curve.
Current price 16/1
BASSETAIRE:
He ran over 10f last time and did okay. Always a horse that looks the type to win a race like this, and 8f on a stiff track should also suit. The stable are doing well, and with a little in hand, he is in with a shout.
GAUL WOOD:
He rounds off my top ten in the betting. Finished ahead of Trader Jack on ground that probably did not suit. Has a C&D win on GF to back that up. On the upgrade, and as there are many others stepping up in grade,  but he has shown from that last run that he is up to this level.
Current price 16/1

Of the remainder, Weapon Of Choice could come into it if the weather turns nasty?

Conclusion:
It is a very tight handicap, and I have the following order:
ASHAADD - if you include the 11lbs weight for age. Without it, he drops back to head the pile covered by 3lbs .. It is that tight.

TRADER JACK is my highest clear of the pack

GAULWOOD is just below TJ

BASSETERRE is also clear of the pack.

Read the comments, see which you think offers best value. The latter three are all in EW range.
Just one note of caution, all bar the favourite are drawn wide. Gaul Wood could have problems at the start as he is a prominent racer. The other two are hold up horses so will need luck in running?

Have a good day ...
p.s. I'll be Blogging every day during R.Ascot.

Note to Tony B - It looks like we may have a non-runner next week(Magician), so if you want to go fro a repalcement let me know below. We can send them in independently next time Paul is on TFR, or on the day for his attention. Okay?
May the best tipper win!

Saturday 8 June 2013

Newmarket 2.55 June 8

There is a lot of racing on today, but as I am now going to be solely concentrating on Class 2 and above races, the choices are fewer. The race chosen has a largish field and looks to offer a better value re odds?

NEWMARKET 2.55: 6f Class 2 h'cap
in betting order ...

ENROL - Had just one run so far, but a successful one.This was against a good field, but in a Class 3 h'cap. This is a step up, and given the rating I got from that race does make her vulnerable. Her price is shorter than it would normally be because M Stoute is her trainer. Her wins last season were only in Class 5 events, so she must be on the upgrade. A danger to all, but worth taking on I think? Current odds 7/2

NOCTURN - This is another just failed when stepping up to Class 2, but that was a top notch effort. However, he has had a hike in the weights, and wipes out the mark I had for him. Another on the upgrade, trained by J  Noseda who is not slow at having a Group Class horse in a h'cap. Any market move would be a pointer. Current odds 9/2

INTRANSIGENT - He has yet to win a race on turf, and is also stepping up a grade on his last run. That was at the turning track at Chester, but had previously run well at Ascot. Like the above pair, his trainer is good at picking the right targets, but this looks a tad ambitious? However, because his mark has fallen, he is the first one I have rated with something in hand. Current odds around 11/1 or 12/1

GATEPOST - He was one place behind the above at Chester, and they meet on similar terms. He has top apprentice, T Brown, to claim 5lbs, but his record on trip and fast ground is not encouraging, and it is a long time since he won a race. Current odds 11/1 or 12/1

SUMMERINTHECITY - He won the race at Chester, after dropping back to 6f. Has been raised 6lbs, which means he is held on my ratings. Current odds 12/1

VALBCHEK - He has not run this season, and was highly tried last year. The 2nd string of the Noseda pair, and is interesting. His best run was in a Listed race behind Sole Power, and that gives him a rating better any here, and on fast ground. He does have to give weight all round and this his first start, but Noseda is good at that?
Current odds 13/1

GRAMMERCY- Another making his debut, but his final start at York, in this grade, does give him a chance. However, his record fresh is not that good. Current odds 17/1

ZERO MONEY- One more having his first run. Proper Class 2 performer, and generally does okay, but has not won since 2011. First time back over 6f since second early last season, after a 5+months break, having had a Meydan winter run. Cannot rule out, but from his high mark against progressive rivals he may just struggle.
Current odds 17/1


DR PARKES - He has been running okay, and the last run over 5f shows he is coming back to form. But most of his runs have been over 5f, the 6th furolong out of the dip might just catch him out. Strong performer at this level though., and that last run does give him an edge at this level. Current odds 17/1 to 20/1


CHEWOREE - Won a Class 4 event at Windsor, stepped up to a Class 2 at York was 5l down on Ancient Cross. That is okay form as She was slowly away and the race was run in a very fast time over 5f. It remains to be seen whether she is up to this higher grade, but she has a squeak. Current odds 20/1

SECRET WITNESS - He finished ahead of the above at York and has a rating that would win this ..if it was over 5f. Never that successful over 6f, and Newmarket's 6f is pretty stiff. Current odds 20/1

Of the remainder;

HEAVY METAL will love the going but has yet to show he is back up to his high level 2yo form.

JOHANNES has the ablity if age has no taken too much off his speed. This is the sort of race he could pop up in, just a slight doubt about this claimer?

MEZZOTINT has not shown that he is up to this level.

WHOZETHECAT - is very inconsistent, and all wins over 5f.

Just prior to Royal Ascot you find a lot of the top Class 2 h'cappers bypass these valuable races, so they verge towards Class 2.5. There are question marks over all the real Class 2 horses here, so it opens the door to the progressive Class 3 runners, who are at the head of the betting., but all of whom have to step up on what they have done so far.

Tricky race, but the above may help to sort them out?


Have a good day ..