Well, on the run of good day, bad day, today should be a good day? I hope.
However, a quick reflection on yesterday's ratings ...
Once again, the 2yo race took the honours. The opening race setting a new 2yo course record, the relative fastest time(against my standard times), but only just. In truth, with conditions the way they were, the times should have been quicker than they were.
So, NO NAY NEVER did not quite match the Grade rating, but it was an excellent rating for all of those involved in the finish.
RIPOSTE' race was next best, and improved his rating, and with a big plus. ROCA TUMU likewise, in the 3yo handicap.. Elidor was the only other to improve a rating, emphasing the point I made above. With this class of horse running, on those conditions which were faster than the day before, their race times should have been better.
On to today ...
Ascot 2.30: 6f Group 3 Albany Stakes 2yo Fillies
SANDIVA is my highest rated, but I have very few rated at all.
RED LADY is better than her figures according to her jockey, K Fallon, and whose opinion I take note of, and may represent a small ew value bet?
WEDDING RING should also be in the mix, but the favourite looks to have an outstanding chance on known form.
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Ascot 3.05:12f Group 2 King Edward Stakes 3yo
BATTLE OF MARENGO is again the only one with a serious rating, and from the Group 1 Derby. I think he was sacrificed a little in that race for the sake of 'team Ballydoyle'. He controlled the slow pace enough to bring Dawn Approach briefly to the front, and then was sent on again to make it a long run for home. He did we ll to finish where he did in the circumstances. This race is his to lose.
MUTASHADED won his last race well enough and is the most like danger to the above.
GREATWOOD needs softer ground and I can see him being pulled out?
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Ascot 3.45: 8f Group1 Coronation Stakes 3yo
On first glance this looks a match between the two Guineas winners, but their wide draw on the round mile does throw it wide open. However, in a match between the two, I think SKY LANTERN possibly has the greater tactical speed than JUST THE JUDGE. The actual ratings are quite close, but that may not reflect the way the race ends.
The French horse, SIYENICA, has to handle the track and the quick conditions, but is a high class filly.
BIG BREAK was behind the favourite in the Irish 2000gns on his first run, and should improve.
PAVLOSK has to improve in this grade.
VIZTORIA looks to have going issues?
MAUREEN who immediately brings up a mental picture of 'the special one'(context football), but that is an Arsenal thing. However, she looked to be going somewhere in her trial run, but has been beaten in both Guineas. However, slightly more favourably drawn than her two conquerers, she could do a lot better here?
Overall, I think it will be a battle of wits between the top two, and Jamie Spencer will do his best to keep Sky Lantern on his inside. If they spend too much time sorting that out I can see an upset coming. But if Sky Lantern gets a clear run she will come out on top.
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Ascot 4.25: 10f Listed Wolferton h'cap
Of those in the top order of the betting: Three have yet to race this season; One, the favourite, is stepping up in grade; One, is coming down two grades; and four got their ratings in this grade. Adjusting for weight carried are as follows:
FATTSOTA from Class 2 Current odds 12/1
TWO FOR TWO from Class 2 Current odds 14/1
BANA WU from Group 3 Current odds 14/1
Given only 2lbs covers those three, I think the value lies in BANA WU, and a possible quick double for Hughsie? His best form, including the rating race, has been on GF conditions.
TWO FOR TWO never got into the race on Wednesday, but it is a negative?
FATTSOTA whose rating came on good to soft, and most good form leans that way, is a negative unless they do hit a shower this time?
ALBASHARAH, the favourite, is unbeaten and is probably much better than his course form shows, but he needs to be?
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Ascot 5.00: 16f Group 3 Queens Vase 3yo
I am not a fan of these longer distance races, so I will give it a miss. But for those looking for the placepot selections, I say follow the money. This is down to big improving horse, and only the stable tend to know who they are?
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Ascot 5.35: 7f Class 2 Buckingham Palace h'cap
Again, of the first half a dozen in the betting, I have three who are clear, and two of those are equal rated.
DREAM TUNE whose rating came on GS going, but next time over C&D on GF he was not beaten far, less that 3 lengths. He raced alone for much of that race, and is drawn on the edge again, but on the stand's side.
Could give jockey the top jock title too ?
CAMPANOLOGY get his rating from his latest performance, and improved upon his previous rating. That was over 8f, but his last win was over 7f. Drawn next to the above so should get a nice tow into the race. Ridden by J Murtagh, and has a very good chance if the stand's side is the place to be?
BERTIEWHITLLE got his rating when finishing just ahead of Dream Tune over C&D on the same going as today. He is drawn on the low side, so you have both angles covered?
It is a very wide open h'cap and you need to be where the pace is, as well as good form coming into it. I only look at the first few in the betting, which may change as the race gets closer.
Have a good day ..
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