Newmarket 2.55 June 8

There is a lot of racing on today, but as I am now going to be solely concentrating on Class 2 and above races, the choices are fewer. The race chosen has a largish field and looks to offer a better value re odds?

NEWMARKET 2.55: 6f Class 2 h'cap
in betting order ...

ENROL - Had just one run so far, but a successful one.This was against a good field, but in a Class 3 h'cap. This is a step up, and given the rating I got from that race does make her vulnerable. Her price is shorter than it would normally be because M Stoute is her trainer. Her wins last season were only in Class 5 events, so she must be on the upgrade. A danger to all, but worth taking on I think? Current odds 7/2

NOCTURN - This is another just failed when stepping up to Class 2, but that was a top notch effort. However, he has had a hike in the weights, and wipes out the mark I had for him. Another on the upgrade, trained by J  Noseda who is not slow at having a Group Class horse in a h'cap. Any market move would be a pointer. Current odds 9/2

INTRANSIGENT - He has yet to win a race on turf, and is also stepping up a grade on his last run. That was at the turning track at Chester, but had previously run well at Ascot. Like the above pair, his trainer is good at picking the right targets, but this looks a tad ambitious? However, because his mark has fallen, he is the first one I have rated with something in hand. Current odds around 11/1 or 12/1

GATEPOST - He was one place behind the above at Chester, and they meet on similar terms. He has top apprentice, T Brown, to claim 5lbs, but his record on trip and fast ground is not encouraging, and it is a long time since he won a race. Current odds 11/1 or 12/1

SUMMERINTHECITY - He won the race at Chester, after dropping back to 6f. Has been raised 6lbs, which means he is held on my ratings. Current odds 12/1

VALBCHEK - He has not run this season, and was highly tried last year. The 2nd string of the Noseda pair, and is interesting. His best run was in a Listed race behind Sole Power, and that gives him a rating better any here, and on fast ground. He does have to give weight all round and this his first start, but Noseda is good at that?
Current odds 13/1

GRAMMERCY- Another making his debut, but his final start at York, in this grade, does give him a chance. However, his record fresh is not that good. Current odds 17/1

ZERO MONEY- One more having his first run. Proper Class 2 performer, and generally does okay, but has not won since 2011. First time back over 6f since second early last season, after a 5+months break, having had a Meydan winter run. Cannot rule out, but from his high mark against progressive rivals he may just struggle.
Current odds 17/1

DR PARKES - He has been running okay, and the last run over 5f shows he is coming back to form. But most of his runs have been over 5f, the 6th furolong out of the dip might just catch him out. Strong performer at this level though., and that last run does give him an edge at this level. Current odds 17/1 to 20/1

CHEWOREE - Won a Class 4 event at Windsor, stepped up to a Class 2 at York was 5l down on Ancient Cross. That is okay form as She was slowly away and the race was run in a very fast time over 5f. It remains to be seen whether she is up to this higher grade, but she has a squeak. Current odds 20/1

SECRET WITNESS - He finished ahead of the above at York and has a rating that would win this ..if it was over 5f. Never that successful over 6f, and Newmarket's 6f is pretty stiff. Current odds 20/1

Of the remainder;

HEAVY METAL will love the going but has yet to show he is back up to his high level 2yo form.

JOHANNES has the ablity if age has no taken too much off his speed. This is the sort of race he could pop up in, just a slight doubt about this claimer?

MEZZOTINT has not shown that he is up to this level.

WHOZETHECAT - is very inconsistent, and all wins over 5f.

Just prior to Royal Ascot you find a lot of the top Class 2 h'cappers bypass these valuable races, so they verge towards Class 2.5. There are question marks over all the real Class 2 horses here, so it opens the door to the progressive Class 3 runners, who are at the head of the betting., but all of whom have to step up on what they have done so far.

Tricky race, but the above may help to sort them out?


Have a good day ..