There is a simple answer to this puzzle, and a more complicated one, and it revolves around DAWN APPROACH, naturally. If he is a genuine middle distance horse of real class then the remainder are running for place money only?
Alternatively, he may not stay the 12f that many think he will, and one or more will run him out of over the last tiring 150yds?
I fall into the latter camp until it is proved otherwise. Yesterday I was firmly against Moth in the Oaks for the same reason. Even the mighty Frankel never attempted to bridge the gap from 8f to 12f as a 3yo? A lot will be made of the winner of the Oaks being by New Approach, but as I pointed out, there was genuine staying pedigree on her dam's side. That is not the case with Dawn Approach..
So to the analysis ..
EPSOM 4.0: 12f Group1 THE DERBY
DAWN APPROACH - Without doubt a top grade horse who has a real high pace that he can maintain long after others cry enough. However, I do think, unlike Frankel to whom he might be compared with, he does not accelerate off that pace. In the 2000gns he had a pacemaker in there to ensure that the early pace was very quick, and kept up to that over the first 5f. It was a pace he could live with, but the others could not. If the field had run their own race the result might have been different, but instead they kept tabs on Dawn Approach, and despite him slowing down over the final 2f, the rest had nothing left to give. It looked impressive, but the overall time was very poor for a Group 1 race, even early in the season.
Dawn Approach will not need a pacemaker in this race because they always go off quickly as they jockey for position on the little right hand turn. Then they climb to the top of the hill, before dropping down to Tattenhan Corner. It is here where I think the race will be won or lost, as I expect DAWN APPROACH to be very handy as they turn into the straight. If he can draw the sting out of the stayers by maintaining this quick tempo and making them make their move too soon, he will very likely last home. But as we saw in the Oaks, a true stayer that can delay its challenge until the front runners start to slow down, will be the one to win going away.
Had it not been for the Godolphin purchase of shares in this horse I do not think Jim Bolger would have considered running him over 12f this term because of the speed he has shown. However, he also has an interest in the stallion prospects so he is not going to air these doubts publicly before the race. O'Brien got it wrong with his miler yesterday, even though there did not appear to be an outstanding rival in the field?
History could repeat itself here.
Current odds 2/1
BATTLE OF MARENGO - He looks to be the main threat from the O'Brien yard, and they look like targeting any stamina doubts with two early pacemakers? I am not sure if he has much of a turn of foot, but he will keep grinding away right to the line. This will be the big test, but barring bad luck in running or failing to handle the course, he will be involved if it is down to a stamina battle.
Current odds 13/2
RULER OF THE WORLD - The second line of attack from the O'Brien stable. I like this horse, but there are some worries. Inexperience to handle the preliminaries? Big horse, will he handle the track? Not least, is he good enough? On the latter point, on my ratings for this season alone, he is only 3lbs behind the favourite, but against lesser opposition. Which means he will not have the comfort of running well within its means before delivering his challenge. He is on the upgrade though, so if he can do a little bit more, worries notwithstanding, he is a serious threat.
Current odds 9/1
OCOVANGO - The first of the unknown quantities. This French horse is following the pattern of Por Moi, the stable's previous winner(who was my selection at the time). He is a different type of horse though. More in the mold of the O'Brien pair, rather than the turn of foot that drew me to Por Moi. There should be no stamina doubts, and the going will not be fast enough to worry him either. The track could be a problem, but he seem okay at non-racing pace the other day. Just how good he is will be answered shortly after 4o'clock, but the trainer has something to compare, so again, likely to be battling away in that final furlong.
Current odds 9/1
CHOPIN - The other unknown quantity. This time a German trained horse. Clearly a top class horse in his homeland, winning both his last race as 2yo over 8f, and his 9f Group 3 'prep' in very impressive style. However, as we often see our Group 2/3 horse take their Group 1 races that level of form has to be eased back a tad. Not to be underestimated though. You only have to think back to Danedream's(edit) win in the King George over Nathaniel, and unlucky not to be able to follow up a second 'Arc win, to know their 'good' horses are very good indeed. If the trainer has any line of form to measure Chopin against that one, he is a danger to all. On first glance at the pedigree it does not scream 12f as an ideal trip. Beneath that though, you have a pretty average dam, out of a top staying family. Add that to speed already shown, if anything is likely to come late and fast it will be this one. J. Spencer is an ideal pilot to deliver, if he is good enough?
Current odds 12/1
MARS - He is the first one with more negatives that positives. Late finishing behind Dawn Run in the 2000gns, is great form, if he were to sticking to a mile. The dam side of his pedigree screams speed, speed speed. 7f rather than 10f could be better, so this 12f is baffling to me. Take yesterday's runner Moth, without the 'up to 10f' dam's pedigree, and you have Mars in a nutshell. Add to that, this race is going to be run to test the favourite's stamina who has already beaten him at 8f. If this horse is in the shake up I will be very, very surprised. But putting my immediate thoughts aside. he has the stamina influence of Galileo, and at some point 10f might be within his compass. Against that his only run as a 2yo was over 7f on the AW, which takes speed, and his Guineas run this season where he may not have handled the dip very well? I know the trainer knows more than I do about this horse, but they got it wrong yesterday ?
Current odds 15/1
LIBERTARIAN - He won the Dante trial at York and looked a worthy winner. The time was not
exceptional, so needs to improve again. Should not have any stamina doubts, but this is a tougher test. I thought Buick only indicatedt she was okay, not special. But if the extra distance suits she is not one you can dismiss completely.
Current odds 17/1
FESTIVE CHEER - Yet another O'Brien runner. Bit of a dark horse compared to the front two in the market. The step up to a Group 2 11f race in France brought about a big improvement, and could well be suited by an extra furlong on that running,, even though the dam side pedigree says not. Whether he will be good enough to take on a true run 12f race at this stage is questionable though?
Current odds 20/1
Now we are into the pace setters;
FLYING THE FLAG - I guess this is the one to take them along at a quick but sensible gallop from the off?
Current odds 150/1
GALILEO ROCK - This one is the stayer, so as they turn into the straight he will take it up just to push Dawn Approach's buttons early on? If he is very good he could break them all??
Current odds 25/1
MIRSAALE - Another front runner, and course winner to boot. Will give his owners a day out in the sun, but has to improve massively to stay out in front at this level.
Current odds 66/1
OCEAN APPLAUSE - Similar comments to the above, without getting to the front. Will need the aid of a suffragette to be involve in anything but a race not to be last.
Summary: No chance. I made that mistake yesterday! I leave it entirely to yourselves to see which odd offers best value. Okay?
Have a good day ...
No comments:
Post a Comment