I will repeat what I said before last week's Irish 1000 Guineas, in that the fillies have found it difficult to blossom into their full potential because of the bad weather early on in the year. Now we are four weeks on from the Newmarket 1000 Guineas, and all the trials done and dusted, they are starting to find their place in the top rankings. Some have more to prove than others, but it shapes like it will be won by a decent staying filly.
So in usual fashion, I will run through them in betting order(odds current to time of writing), to see who brings what to the table.
EPSOM 4.00: 12f Group 1 THE OAKS
SECRET GESTURE - She won the Lingfield trial in impressive fashion, and recorded the best rating on the day, However, there are some niggles that might temper the thinking that this race was all it appeared? For a start, the ratings of horses in behind only match my race grade, as most did not have an official mark, but the well beaten 4th had a OR of 88. With Group one level being 110+, could mean that this favourite did the job, and nothing more? The big question, as that was a 'trial' race, can she improve enough to do the same against fitter, better class horses here? The second problem at Lingfield was the going. From my figures, it appeared the far side of the track was softer than the final 7f, with the straight being the quickest of all. Difficult to get accurate time figures when the gap is as large as it appeared here.?
If nothing else, the race showed the three most important things; She has 'trained on' from her average 2yo days; the distance is no problem, and the recent rain will not inconvenience her.
Worth her current odds of a shade over 3/1?
MOTH - She holds her high position in the market on the strength of her run in the 1000gns, where she missed the break and finished the next 6f as well as any other. Unlike the above, this race was a stone better race than the Lingfield trial, and has been franked by the 2nd going on to win the Irish 1000gns. Ratings are close with the above, much like her odds. However, the big question will remain until after the race, as to whether the step up to 12f will bring out any improvement. I really doubt that it will. Finishing strongly over 8f when held up in the rear, to me says she should get closer to the pace, and a mile is her trip? The breeding is not that encouraging for going over 10f either. Another thing, it was fast going at Newmarket and it brought out her best performance. Even with a drying wind, the going at Epsom will not be fast, so stamina will be a key a factor. Trained by any lesser stable and she would be a 10/1 shot. Improving, yes. Likely winner, no.
Current odds 4/1
LIBER NAUTICUS - There was a lot to like about her York trial win. The way she knuckled down and stayed on well, after being slightly outpaced when they quickened, suggesting that 12f will be fine for her. She was only on her second start there, so big improvement can be expected. Unfortunately, that is where the good news ends. The quality of that small field was 20lbs below Group 1 standard, but even as a Group 3 it was poor. The time was the slowest (relatively speaking) on the card, and the rating only matched that of the Class 4 handicapper who has an OR of 79! Now much of this can be put down to the small field, and her trainer will know what it takes to win a classic. That said, the build up to this race will be something else for this lightly raced filly, and it is a very big ask to show her true potential this time. Not impossible, but a very hard one to pull off?
Current odds 5/1
BANOFFEE- Jockey Kieren Fallon is very sweet on her(excuse the pun), and from her trial at Chester he is entitled to do so. Like the above, she suffers from it being a weak race from the official ratings. The 4th, Elik, was only rated 79, but went on to win a Listed race at Goodwood, but that race did not bring out exceptional time figures either. What Banoffee did show was an amazing turn of foot at the end of the 11f+ race, and we know what Magician did last week to know that can be devastating, especially with the final 150yds at Epsom being uphill? Still has a few lbs to find on the favourite. Having improved 20lbs from her debut run in April, on good to soft, with the follow up on good to firm, and the trip no problem either, although there may be some stamina doubts in a true run race? She has a good a chance as any if she can be close enough after they turn for home. She is another lightly raced horse that has to get through the preliminaries, but Chester is close to the noisy public too, and that experience may help.
Current odds 9/1
SAY - Her best asset is that she is the only one to win over the full 12f. However, that was in a 4 runner field, and as a 1/6 odds on shot tells you all you need to know about the opposition? It was a god awful time to boot. I am sure A O'Brien can see some merit in running her, but I cannot see her being used as a pacemaker for her stamina doubt laden stable companion? Possibly up front to slow it up for more of a sprint finish? Or maybe, just to stay out the back/press on from the front and see where her stamina takes her? The latter would be running her on HER merits, and if her trainer think she is a top staying filly in the making, who knows, it could be MOTH who is there to set it up for her?? Watch for late betting moves?
Current odds 11/1 ... but possibly go bigger, then shorten up in the last 15 minutes before the off?
TALENT - She is the last of the more obvious potential winners, having won a Listed 10f race at Newmarket on 1000gns day. The time was not great, but saw the trip out well. She looks the type to improve for the step up to 12f, and on breeding too. Unlike the Derby favourite, she has a lot of stamina on the dam side, to balance the speed of her sire New Approach. So despite needing a huge improvement on what she has shown so far, with many doubts surrounding all of the above, she could find herself battling out the finish.
The remainder, whilst not without a chance of running into a place, or even providing a shock winner, they do have to over turn form with some of the above.
MADAME DEFARGE was preferred in the betting to TALENT last time, and had a poor run in the race. However, breeding indicates the step up in trip may improve her conquerer more so.
Current odds 25/1
GERTRUDE VERSED has to reverse placings with BANOFFEE, which looks a tough task on that running.
Current odds 40/1
ROZ she has an even bigger task to turn around 13 lengths with MOTH. However, the plus points are; she was having her first run of the season in a Group 1 race, over 8f, whereas this 12f is more likely to suit, and her 2yo form is probably the best on show. The negative is, her Newmarket run did nothing to say she has trained to the same level. That is of running the winter ante-post favourite for the 1000gns, Certify (currently banned from racing), to a 4.5l second in the top Group 1 2yo contest on her final start. But remembering the preface to this, and how fillies in particular have suffered with the bad weather, this extra month and a bit of sunshine could work wonders for this one. If any horse could run into a place at a huge price, then she could well be the one?
Current price 50/1
MISS YOU TOO has it find with ROZ on 2yo form, and SECRET GESTURE on her last run. That will not happen if both run to their best. But stranger things can happen. The trip and going will be no problem, it is simply the case whether she is good enough?
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: It is a more open race that the odds suggest. 7/1 the field is more like it, given there are many on a similar level of known form. If I were a layer of bets, then MOTH would be the one I would take on.
The danger to all is if the race is run at a solid pace throughout, SAY has the best stamina requirements to finish it off ... only AO'B knows just how good she is??
ROZ represents good value for a little EW punt. She must be showing something to be kept in the race? Not only that, they have booked Johnny Murtagh ..mmmmn
BANOFFEE is the only one of the short price ones to have a decent price. High enough for EW but she is more likely to win or bust?
You choose, I am only putting the information in front of you ...
Have a good day ...
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