NEWMARKET 3.50 8f Group 1 3yo Fillies - 1000gns:
HOT SNAP: She created a major upset when winner the trial race at Newmarket. Visually impressive against rivals that would not e fully wound up for that race. But that could have been said about herself, having only run once in the previous season. What does make it a fascinating though is her speed figure, which was the clear fastest, relative to the others, on the day. But here is the first warning from recent history. Heerat, the sprinter, ran an incredible time compared to the rest on his reappearance, and like Hot Snap, came into the race on a fairly average mark for what he had done. He could not repeat that in the higher class field yesterday, admittedly on faster ground. The point is, at this time of year all horses are still building to their peak, and so the relative fast time has to reflect that.
In Hot Snaps favour, she is not stepping into a very hot race like Heerat did, where the first three home were multiple Group1 winners. But even so, she will not have time to find her feet out the back this time, and it is that which might take away her final turn of foot that she showed last time. Inexperinence in the build up might also take its toll on her nerves. Without doubt she if a top filly, but this race may just be beyond her right now?
WHAT A NAME: This is the French challenger, and potentially the most likely winner. Although failing to win her Group 1 race last year, it was still a good effort as she was the only filly in the race, and the winner is a strong fancy for the French 2000gns. Only narrowly won on her reappearance, in a Group 3, but is expected to improve, and her trainer thinks the faster ground will suit. This is the one they will have to pass to win.
JUST THE JUDGE: Not raced this season, but signed off with a Group 2 success. That was the relatively slowest run race of the day, and consequently she did not match the grade rating. Despite that she comes into this with a strong chance if fully wound up. the stable think a lot of her, but this is a tough ask on this quicker ground.
MOTH: Not a lot to go on with her. Won in impressive style in a maiden, and that is it. Very few horses can make such a leap into the top grade and be successful, no matter what stable they are in? If she is exceptional, she might nick a place.
SKY LANTERN: She is a Group 1 winner, so the pace of this race will be no shock to her I am amazed how quickly people dismiss her chance after her prep race behind Hot Snap. Not fully wound up yet she marginally improved on her rating, which at least shows she has trained on. She has won on fast ground, and the best each way in the field, because if she does not beat the French horse, she will run her very close.
MAUREEN: She is the last one in with any chance on all known form. meaning the rest are going to have to improve beyond all recognition to get involved. She won her prep in pleasing style, against other hopefuls, and there is no reason to suppose that they will improve passed her to turn the tables. She does still have a bit to find on the above, but her battling manner of racing will give her supporters plenty of hope. Yet to race on the faster ground though.
Frankly I do not see the winner coming from outside of those mentioned above, and even 3rd place will be contested strongly.
Reflections on yesterday;
Dawn Approach will improve, although Epsom is not an ideal course for her, but he is a class act
Olympic Glory deserves an enormous amount of credit for his run. Racing alone for much of the race, yet kept on to take second from the fading better fancied runners.
Toranado did as I expected, and that was not finishing off in a strong run race. I cannot see him turning the tables in the Derby either. Much was made beforehand as to how he would be the one to strike for home first, as the pacemakers dropped away. But Dawn Approach went at the same time and simply outstayed him. It was the early pace that did it, and he will not always have that in future races. Not to be written off, but better than Canford Cliffs?
Garswood was very slow out of the stalls, and had to make a big effort to join the trailing group early on. In the end did well to keep going, but may have to lower his sight just a tad?
Van De Neer did indeed prove himself, and will be a strong contender for future mile races.
I have yet to do the ratings, but I suspect that the overall time will not be that quick, and the sectionals to show the final furlong was the slowest?
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