Sunday 26 May 2013

IRISH 1000 GUINEAS 2013

To be honest, there is not a lot to say about this race, because all bar one has a below grade level rating.

JUST THE JUDGE is the exception, but only just. The Newmarket 1000gns is a strange race to work out. The overall time was not exceptional, yet it was the second fastest, relatively, on the card. Yet the winner did not improve on her rating?
I think the cold spring has has a big effect on last season's 2yo's. Some have shown some early potential but not really at Group 1 level. So, like yesterday with the colts we are left to guess just how much the various stables know what further is to come? Most need to improve 10lbs to 20lbs to be considered real top class.
That said, Just The Judge will handle the faster ground, which may be a big doubt with many on runs last season's very wet surfaces? She also stays a mile well, but like yesterday, at 4/1 it is taking a lot on trust that she has improved beyond what the others have.

The following all have the same thing in common, in that they have shown something to work on, either this season or last, but still have to improve up to a stone just to get to the favourite's level?

BIG BREAK - Last season, no prep.

MAUREEN - Behind the favourite, on second run, which matched her earlier win.

SNOW QUEEN - Improved to finished 5th in the 1000gns, just ahead of the above.

VIZTORIA - Won the Group 3 trial, beating BUNAIRGEAD, who ties in with the above's first run.

JUST PRETENDING - Did nothing special in winning her Group 3 trial, but the stable know more??

WHAT STYLE just ahead of SNOW QUEEN on her reappearance. Similar chance, bigger odds?

HANKY PANKY - She won at Naas over 8f, but those behind were only h'cappers.

HARASIYA - I am interested in this horse for one reason. I recall she won a Group 3 last year in a good time, on a day when some of the top older horse were running. If you can do that wit a relatively quick time for distance, it usually means it was special. The only thing is she did not follow it up. She was due to have a prep, but missed it. So there is something of a doubt as to how ready she will be, but on best form with improvement for age, she is a lively outsider at 17/1 in a place

She is as far down the betting order I need to go. Not that the others cannot win, but mostly have over tun form will all the above.

It is the favourites to lose on known form, but the unknown is the danger?

Have a good day ...

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