Monday 21 June 2010

KING STANDS STAKES

The day's Top Spot is:
3.05 Ascot June 15 - Group 1 5f

127 EQUIANO, plus 13lbs
This was Equiano back to his very best, matching his equally brilliant win two years ago. It will take an exceptional performance to knock him off the sprinting crown if they can keep him at this level until the l'Abbaye?

121 MARKAB, plus 11lbs
My how this horse has improved this year. I thought his win in Ireland may have been a one off, but this is even better. Quite remarkable for a horse of his age ... until, that is ...

123 BORDERLESCOTT, plus 9lbs
Nine years of age and still putting it all in at the very highest level. Some horse, some performance? He broke well, but when the winner kicked for home he lost a length or two, and was playing catch up all the way to the line. He deserves another Group 1.

123 NICCONI, plus 6lbs
I heard some negative comments made about this horse, but on these figures, he is a very good horse. Had trouble in running, without which he may well have got second. True, he is no Choisir, but then not many are (except possibly one of his sons??), but if he sticks around he may well get compensation.

117 BOULD MOVER, plus 10lbs
For a 66/1 shot this horse was right there until the last few strides. He will not be those odds again, that is for sure. But one for the notebook when the ground rides quick.

118 KINGSGATENATIVE, plus 1lbs
Only ran to his rating really. Met trouble in running, but unlike Nicconi, could not get going again.

114 SPIN CYCLE, plus 4lbs
Ran a sound race without ever looking like winning, which makes me think that a Group 2 may be his best chance of a win. Given the strength at the top of this market, it is unlikely to get much easier?

110 AMOURE PROP. plus 0lbs
Another who only ran to its rating, and finds this company a bit hot. If he can get out and get a really good uncontested lead he will come good, but again, probably not at this level?

105 BLUE JACK, minus 5lbs
I know people have been raving about this horse since his scintillating win in a C2 h'cap. Indeed, I have him at least 10lbs higher ... AT THAT LEVEL! ... Personally, I think 105 is as good as he is in this grade. The quicker pace just takes enough out of his finishing kick at the vital stage, and they prove too strong at the finish. He will find a race, but not at the very top just yet.

This was far and away the best rated race on day one of the Royal Ascot meeting and deserves the 'Top Spot' billing, and I hope puts a proper perspective on the race?

Of the other races;
GOLDIKOVA dropped a point on 129; Canford Cliffs dropping to 113 - very disappointing and I will double check the time tomorrow with my R/form Update! - ; STRONG SUIT ran the slowest comparative time, even for a 2yo, so I am not sure he will figure among the top contenders at the end of the year?
The rest were all horrendous negatives!

That concludes this blog. I hope it keeps you interested.
Cheers, Gerry

Saturday 19 June 2010

7.55 Warwick June 14

This Top Spot race is a listed race, ran in a quick time on the night.

Warwick 11f Class 1 Listed:

LADY JANE DIGBY - 113, plus 9lbs
Should not go up too much(see below) and could follow up at a similar level - i.e. a reasonable Listed race at one of the lesser courses. This distance suits, as does 'good' ground.
CASSIQUE LADY - 104, plus 10lbs
Has raced over further, but has not won on firm since her first run.
LADY ARTEMISIA
This was a bit of a step up in class and could have done with faster ground. Worth noting nto.
SAPHIRA'S FIRE
Ran a sound race, but her profile reads like she needs to drop a grade.
UVINZA
She has contested some fairly tough races but just seems to lack that extra gear ... at this level?
HONIMEIRE
She ran Strawberrydaicquiri to a head over 9f, so probably needs to drop back to 10f or less.
DANEHILL'S PEARL
Never got into this race, first try over longer. Has won twice on softer, but may need a drop in grade to get the winning habit? Although they may be after some 'black type' so another listed event may be her next target. Could be interesting should soft ground happen to be the going??
CASTER SUGAR
Never in this race, but a huge step up in class. Now it may have been towed along at the rear without ever being put under pressure ... but ... seriously over-performed on time, and a drop back in grade will show how much better than her current mark is. One to note!
BECQU ADOREE
I include this one because it will be dismissed by most. It is ex-French trained and is clearly taking time to adjust to the different style of racing here. This was a big step forward - on time at least - and her shrewd trainer will place her well(at big odds I hope), and she knows how to win.

I have extended the list right back to the favourite, because all, yes ALL, would have improved their h'cap mark had the winning line, and time been taken when they finished. I think this is a much better way of showing true performances in non-handicap races?
Fortunately, the official handicapper, along with most form students will try to find the 'key' horse on which to based their ratings, and that is likely to be Lady Artemesia? Good news for LADY JANE DIGBY(should it run in a handicap), as the 3rd was only rated 87, beaten 4 lengths. with a 106 rated just behind. Taking a line between the two would give you 97, add 7lbs for the 4l win - Voila! LJB on 104. So the winner goes up 4lbs. second 3lbs, third 1lbs, and Saphira's Fire deemed to have run below its level, but remaining on 104? It will be interesting to see how close that assessment is, but it is far more complicated than my way?

I have not put the ratings in for the whole field because it might be some have just had their peak on this day and never get the same conditions to repeat it, But the ones I have highlighted in red are the ones I would take out of the race. Normally the winner would be in blue, but for the reasons described above she gets purple - Note - any new rating in a non-h'cap race will only be reflected in their odds offered. Should any drop back into h'cap company, take it they are going to be ahead of their mark.

I hope you take note of all this, could be profitable?
Happy punting Gerry

Friday 18 June 2010

R.ASCOT-Saturday-June19

2.30 CHESHAM STAKES Listed 7f

No selection -reasons given in earlier blog.

3.05 HARDWICKE STAKES G3 12f

114 HARBINGER
106 ALAINMAAR
105 JUKEBOX JURY
105 DUNCAN

Summary - Harbinger's win at Chester was an improvement, but still 2lbs below OR. Chester form does not always get confirmed at Ascot, and his next best is only 106 ... and that makes it a much more open race than the betting suggests? Despite that, he should still win, but Alainmaar will push him all the way.
No bet for me.

3.50 GOLDEN JUBILEE STAKES G1 6f

113 PRIME DEFENDER
113 SOCIETY ROCK
112 TOTAL GALLERY
111 SIR GERRY
110 TRIPLE ASPECT
108 SERIOUS ATTITUDE

Summay - I have extended the list just to show how incredibly tight it is amongst the 'home based' runners, but as there is a host of top class overseas contenders it is, however, another no selection race. If you can ignore Total Gallery's run on Tuesday, then he would have a chance. However, it appears at the moment his attitude is not to try too hard? Sir Gerry and Society Rock are both improving ... BUT ... from Listed class. Which means they may not match their ratings in this company. Prime Defender I never had as one of the most consistent, so to win 3 on the trot is probably too much to ask. That leaves Triple Aspect as a possible ew from those rated .... the list is too long to name all those without a current rating!

4.25 WOKINGHAM STAKES Class 2 Handicap 6f

(weight adj)
124 GENKI
121 JIMMY STYLES
118 PALACE MOON
115 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH

Summary - Having just checked with the 'In Runnung' section (I'll give it plug because it can be very informative - especially when Ben Hutton is doing the research!) and it appears that the more guaranteed pace, courtesy of Mac Gille Eoin, means the far side may be favoured. Which is lucky, as it include my top two! But if something does take them along nearside, then I would expect Palace Moon to be in the shake up. For further info on my 2nd and 3rd rated, can I point you in the direction of my Sunday blog (4.15 Salisbury).
There are a few close up behind Rileys', but he may have the hard edge to keep them at bay.

5.00 DUKE OF EDINBURGH Handicap Class2 12f

(weight adj)
121 MYSTERY STAR
110 IMPOSING
108 CLASSIC VINTAGE
106 FINAL VICTORY

Summary - If Mystery Star handles the very fast ground he looks to have it on this mark. Imposing was impressive in his win and should come on for the run. However, for a horse who has not had much racing it would be no surprise if he is taken out? Classic Vintage, with Murtagh on board, should go well. Final Victory has a bit to find, and fast ground does not usually favour low weights. Plus, there are three others within a couple of lbs, so that will be a tighter battle - Cill Rialaig 105; Sweet Lightning 105; Dangerous Midge 104.

5.35 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES Class 2 Non-handicap 22f

Ratings for these extreme distances are unreliable, No selection.

Well that concludes my Ascot blogs. I hope you have all done well from the info provided. For a change I am in profit too! Have a good day.
Gerry

Thursday 17 June 2010

R.ASCOT-Friday,18th June

2.30 ALBANY STAKES - Group 3 6f

I do not like rating 2yo's this early in the season. For one thing, ratings now are variable to say the least, and to project that into some kind of h'cap mark is sheer folly. That is because the second thing, is that they can improve so much from one run to the next ... so it becomes a guessing game with half the pieces of the puzzle missing.
No selection.

3.05 KING EDWARD V11 STAKES - Group 2 12f

113 AT FIRST SIGHT
105 MONTEROSSO
102 GREEN MOON
99 BULLET TRAIN

Summary - At First Sight had a hard race in the Derby less than 2 weeks ago. He handled the Epsom course very well, but this is a long slog uphill ... a bit different? What I am saying is, if those two reasons knock 10lbs of his rating it will drop him right back into the clutches of a couple of really progressive types, and why I would favour them. I also think it is a sign of things at Ballydoyle that they could not find any other horse that is in good form?

3.50 CORONATION STAKES - Group 1 fillies 8f

The Irish 1000gns quartet having a repeat battle amongst themselves, with a couple from the Newmarket 1000, and the 5th from the French equivalent .... and they may all miss out to TABASSUM.
My ratings for the winners of the above - Bethrah (Irish) 119: Special Duty(English) 112: Special Duty(French) 118 (estimate).
If pressed I would select Music Show because it is the only one that seems to have a marked preference for fast ground. But where Tabassum will fit in I haven't a clue.
A race to watch for me.

4.25 WOLFERTON Listed Handicap Class 1

113 KING'S GAMBIT, plus 8lbs
108 INDIAN DAYS, plus 4lbs
105 BEAUCHAMP XERXES, plus 2lbs
107 RAINBOW PEAK, level

Summary - The going is a concern about the top rated, not having won on very fast ground. The next is Indian Days who may be on a going day. Beauchamp X has not won over this trip, while Rainbow peak should improve on his first run, and is 100% at this distance. Add to the mix at least 3 that could come back to form -Traffic Guard, Eastern Aria, and Halicarnassus - it has the look of another tricky contest?

5.00 QUEEN'S VASE Group 3 16f

No ratings for this distance, so no selection.

5.35 BUCKINGHAM PALACE Handicap Class 2 7f

116 TREADWELL, plus 18lbs
104 DAY OF THE EAGLE, plus 12lbs
108 HIMALYA, plus 5lbs
95 ESOTERICA, plus 3lbs

Summary - Bad race for 3yo's which goes against Treadwell's chance, and the rating coming from Epsom, so no guarantee he will do well here.
Day of the Eagle was a good winner last time, which is why he is likely to start favourite, but the other two could certainly make it interesting.

It will be another one of those awkward days where you may do well to break even on the betting front, but best of luck in your efforts.
Cheers, Gerry

R.ASCOT-Thursday-June17

A less in depth look at today's card, due to lack of time.

2.30 NORFOLK STAKES - 5f

Not a race I can rate accurately, But provisionally:
Dinkum Diamond is 5lbs clear.
Dubai Dynamo and
Excel Bolt are next.
I gave a favourable note on the latter's run in an earlier blog, but a word of warning ... Remember Dortmund? Short priced fav to follow up after a hard race where the front two pulled well clear in their private battle ... well similar applies to Excel Bolt, as he fought back to win a race he had lost half a furlong out. If he is a battler he may have enjoyed the tussle, but being a 2yo I doubt it.
Similar could apply to Stone of Folca who has an equal chance if he is fully recovered from Tuesday's race ... trainer thinks he has?

3.05 RIBBLESDALE STAKES - 12f

104 PRINCIPAL ROLE
104 FATANAH
97 ACQUAINTED

Summary - These are clear of the remainder, but note that they are all rated below their official h'cap mark, so no selection.

3.50 GOLD CUP - 20f

No worthwhile ratings, and too many without a current rating. No selection.


4.25 BRITTANIA STAKES - Class 2 handicap.

102 SEA LORD, plus 7lbs
86 ONE GOOD EMPEROR.plus 5lbs
87 FIREBACK, plus 3lbs
92 HYPNOTIZED, plus 1lb

The high draw may still favour Sea Lord, but not if they all crowd over there. Going stick suggests it is more even today, so as there is pace spread across the track they may well split into 3 groups? One Good Emperor is stepping up in grade, but has a featherweight to carry.
There are a host of others who are on, or near their mark, so it will come down to who has made the biggest improvement, and gets the luck in running.

5.00 HAMPTON COURT STAKES - Class 1 Listed 10f

I could not find a positive rating for any, so no selection.

5.30 KING GEORGE V STAKES - Class 2 Handicap

98 LONDON STRIPE, plus 10lbs
98 CONTRACT CATERER, plus 5lbs
89 BERLING, plus 2lbs
87 BAY WILLOW plus 2lbs

Summary - Only concern about the selection is the ground, it has yet to race on anything faster than good, and Sadlers Wells to boot, AND, a going stick reading of 10 would be FIRM any where but here? Contract Caterer may have rated higher but for interference, and Fallon on board is a plus.
Berling is stepping up in class, but is on the upgrade, so a place chance? Bay Willow was my first Top Spot blog race and has obviously had this as a target after his win .. a bit to find but trainer in fine form.

As I seem to select the wrong ones, I suggest you pick your own, or if you had a selection that matches one from my short-list, so much the better?
Happy punting people.
Cheers Gerry

Tuesday 15 June 2010

R.ASCOT-Wednesday-June16

2.30 JERSEY STAKES - 7f:

114 FREE JUDGEMENT
110 LUCKY GENERAL
110 RAINFALL
109 ROCK JOCK

Summary - Ratings stand scutiny. Top comes from the Irish 2000, which Canford Cliffs has upheld. I take Rainfall over Lucky General, despite the trainer/jockey combination of the latter, as his rating came over 7f. Rock Jock gets ahead of the remainder on his run behind Angel's Pursuit, and that form was upheld on Sunday.

3.05 WINDSOR FOREST STAKES - 8f
:

109 ANTARA
109 GOLDEN STREAM
108 PYRRHA
SAPHRESA

Summary - Very tight between the top three, but the winner may be the one I cannot rate, but looks to go well fresh, and at a slightly higher level than 'home' contingent.

3.50 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES - 10f:

118 TAZEEZ
118 GLASS HARMONIUM
115 DEBUSSY

With no ratings for the likes of; ALLYBAR, BYWORD, PRESVIS, and TWICE OVER, it is quite possible that none of my top three will even make the frame? Presvis and Allybar have got to prove themselves post MEYDAN, and Twice Over needs a couple of races to be at his best ... Which leaves Byword as the most likely winner, but the rated horses are high enough to make it a true contest.

4.25 ROYAL HUNT CUP - 8f h'cap:

High drawn.

ACROSTIC
MOYNAHAN
INVISIBLE MAN

Low drawn.

DANDY BOY
MANASSAS
DOCOFTHEBAY

There are two key races involved in the selections -FAREER and DANDY BOY, and the Official marks are pretty near mine for the former, where I give Dandy Boy's lot 4 or 5lbs in hand. To complicate matters, it may be the far side have the better pace with St Moritz(also 5lbs to the good, but from a class 3, 7f race) drawn high, and going stick suggesting that far rail will be quicker. That being the case, I will take my top two to fight it out. Invisible Man could be better that the ratings indicate, as I have him on the minus 5lbs mark, but the jockey knows his way around Ascot, and could easily run into a place if drawn on the right side.
My low drawn trio are very capable of winning, if it were a level playing field, so any hint that the stands rail is best come post time, they are the three to concentrate on.

5.00 QUEEN MARY STAKES - 5f:

All these two year olds are stepping up in class, and with such limited data of a single run in most cases, I shall give this a miss.

5.35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP,LISTED - 8f:

Again, very difficult to put accurate ratings on these, but Lolly For Dolly came out best in the best race - Irish 1000gns - and despite top-weight, makes most appeal.
Timepiece and Blue Maiden could both be a danger if back to their best, as could others. So another race to leave alone.


Monday 14 June 2010

3.40 Sals Jun 13th

This is the Top Spot race for Sunday.

3.40 Salisbury 6f C1 Listed:

SIR GERRY - 111 plus 6lbs
Not an obvious race to choose, because the proverbial blanket covered the first six home. However, Sir Gerry deserves credit for being able to finish faster, and being one of the least fancied of the others. Clearly from the betting it suggests each trainer brought their horse thinking they could win? So to put up a rating of plus 6lbs shows he is well up to this level.

ELNAWIN - 109, plus 6lbs.
Had a chance of winning but for the late finish of the above. Keeps trying at this level, but may be a nice Class 2 conditions stakes will see him get a reward for this excellent effort.

ANGEL'S PURSUIT - 114, plus 5lbs.
This performance suggests his turn is not that far away, although may have been feeling the ground close? A little moisture would probably suit next time.


JIMMY STYLES - 111, plus 6lbs.
This is looking for a good Class 2 handicap where he can use his pace to lie up with the leaders and still have something at the finish. It was just the latter that kept him from winning at this level here.

PALACE MOON - 110, plus 5lbs.
This was the well supported favourite in this competitive heat, but had absolute no luck in running from the moment he reared up leaving the stalls. The fact that he finished so close suggests the market support was justified. Given he would have rated higher probably means this is his level, and should collect in similar shortly.

SIROCCO BREEZE - 114, plus 4lbs.
Another well supported but not quite up to it today. Nevertheless, he has shown a good level of form, and improved his rating. Not likely to be put up much, may even drop a lb or two? Where they go from he will be interesting, but one to watch out for if the money comes for him again?

R.ASCOT-Tuesday,15th June

In race card order:

2.30 QUEEN ANNE STAKE:

132 RIP VAN WINKLE
122 PACO BOY
GOLDIKOVA
CALMING INFLUENCE

Summary - Rip Van Winkle stands out. If SEA THE STARS was the best horse in decades, then the horse that made him run to his best rating, and only beaten a length. That horse is RVW. He is a course winner - very important, as many do not take to the 'springy' feel since they relaid the track. He beat Paco Boy at Goodwood last year. Yes, PACO BOY may well have improved, but remember, Rip Van Winkle hardly entered a top race without something going wrong in his preparations last year - I have heard no such stories this time around?
A fully fit RVW is a confident selection, despite the presence of two strong contenders that I have no rating for.
Goldikova - on a line through RP ratings last year, I think she is about on a 129 rating
CALMING INFLUENCE - On a line through CAT JUNIOR, this has the beating of Paco Boy. Very tenuous because it involves Meydan races, and Paco could have won by more?


3.05 KINGS STAND STAKES:

125 BORDERLESCOTT
123 EQUIANO
122 KINGSGATE NATIVE
NICCONI

Summary - Very tight between the home trio. All three have good form on the surface. Will the Australian horse be good enough? I may get some late news on that, but at a quick shows it can win at the highest level, and being a hold up horse it will get the race run to suit.
Just because he should be coming to his normal peak I will take BORDELESCOTT to repel all comers. Markab is best of the rest.

3.50 ST JAMES PALACE STAKES:

122 CANFORD CLIFFS
118 MAKFI
115 DICK TURPIN

Summary - Everything else has to improve to beat this trio, or in the case of Beethoven, run up to his last year's best. Canford Cliffs heads the confirmed ratings, but just as he was entitled to improve on his next run, after finishing behind Makfi, so could Makfi. Then you have Dick Turpin, who also improved. I said in my Derby blog that I thought the French 2000gns looked rock solid, and so it proved with the winner trouncing the French Derby field? There is a reasonable argument to say that that 2000 race was about 15lbs superior(on time) to the 1000. If you say that Special Duty also improved from one race to the next, and ran near its 117 rating in the French 1000
... that would have the 2000gns winner on 132, and Dick Turpin on 131

On that basis I think Dick Turpin has an excellent chance of finishing in front Canford Cliffs once more, and with the sting being taken out of ground, he is better to race now rather than find the course has all dried out later in the week? Makfi is a danger. An uncomplicated horse who runs straight as an arrow. Canford Cliffs has the course experience, and the deadly turn of foot. Fascinating race.


4.25 COVENTRY STAKES

108 SAMUEL MORSE
89 HIGH STANDING
88+ STRONG SUIT
83 KLAMMER

Summary - If only the Coventry stakes ran to form it would be easy - It rarely does!
Samuel Morse is the clear selection, but no doubt something will show improved form to make sure it is not the walk-over it may appear.


5.00 ASCOT STAKES:

This year's running does not look that competitive as some, For that reason I would side with TYRELLS WOOD, who ran a good race at last years meeting.


5.35 WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES:

82 BOUNDLESS SPIRIT
82 CHILWORTH LAD
METROPOLITAN MAN
SPEIGHTOWNS KID

Summary - With such low ratings I expect this will not be one for the home contingent? There are a host of Irish challengers, for which I have no ratings for. Likewise the American horse, but they usually try out with their weakest entry first, so I suspect this April foal with only be placed. It may have had only one run, but you can guarantee it will be up and ready for it.
However, SPEIGHTOWNS KID intrigues me. Why bring an unraced horse over to start at this level ... if it wasn't pretty special? G. Gibbons on board. Hey, why not, it is a very open race to my mind.

Best of luck with all your selections, these are mine.
Gerry


Sunday 13 June 2010

New Angle on Top Spot

It has been apparent over the last few weeks that highlighting the winners of fast run races is probably not the best use of the information. The reason, it appears, is that the winners tend to go up a grade, along with a higher OR, means they do not win that often. So for future Top Spot features, the WINNER will be highlighted in blue, but the horse(s) from the race worth watching will be highlighted in RED.

This should mean that they will not be penalised as much as the winners, and more likely to stay within that grade, and may be at better odds to boot. That is the theory, let's see how it works in practice?

2.40 Sandown, 5f - 11th June : DRIFT AND DREAM - 83, plus 12lbs

PHEROUSA 72, plus 9lbs. This was a 3yo h'cap, so its rise will be relative to the winner's new rating. It is the second time this horse has appeared in my list of good also rans, so it was clearly no fluke. In a Class 4 h'cap where it can come from of a good pace should be ideal next time.

3.15 Sandown 7f - 11th June : ECLIPTIC - 85.

TOULAIN - 88+?. This is the horse Frankie fell off just before the line ...Clearly useful as this was a quick time, even for Class 4 two year olds. It came to win its race comfortably, so a similar C4 should be a formality with this experience behind it. It will be a short price, particularly if the winner follows up first.

3.50 Sandown 8f - 11th June : FONTLY - 93, plus 9lbs

INNOCUOUS -86, plus 6lbs. If he can get away with a small rise, then he too will be worthy of an interest in a Class 4 h'cap. He did not have the best of races, yet manage to finish a close up 4th. Suggestion that softer(than G/F) ground may suit, but worthy of a notebook entry.

6.15 Goodwood 8f 11th June : HEAR THE ROAR 85

TARIQ TOO - 75 Not a very good mark for a Class 4 maiden, but finished just behind an odds-on rival to get 3rd, on only second start, and first on turf. Breeding suggests that soft ground will favour it, and with expected improvement from that run it should lose the maiden tag soon.
(Second Simcock runner on this list, which may suggest that yard is not far off a winner or two)

3.15 York 6f 12th June : VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR 99, plus 9lbs. Class 2 H'cap.

IVER BRIDGE LAD - 109, plus 8lbs. Very much a case of showing some decent form at last.

PASTORAL PLAYER - 93, minus 2lbs. Nevertheless this was a good finish from a tardy start, so worth more than the bare rating, especially if he gets dropped a couple of pounds.

NOSEDIVE - 75 Well below its official mark, but this horse has been highly tried over further and stayed on nicely, without being involved in the finish. So, with a drop in the weights and a move back up to 7f, or a stiff 6f, it could well come in at a big price in the near future.


Happy punting folks.

Friday 11 June 2010

LOST IN THE MOMENT

The Top Spot goes to:

LOST IN THE MOMENT - 92, plus 19lbs. 8f Newbury June 10th

A comfortable winner of this competitive Class 5 h'cap, and give his trainer, this is already a grade or two higher. However, I would like it to confirm that mark in the better company before getting too carried away with this 92 mark. It is unlikely all of the 19lbs will be swallowed up after being reassessed, but a big rise and a rise in class could spell danger.

DOMINATION - 77, plus 10lbs. 12f Newbury June 10th

This also won a class 5 3yo h'cap, and being a bit more likely to stay close to that grade next time, could well follow up.

AKTIA - 80, plus 13lbs. 10f Haydock June 10th

This is yet another of the 3yo class 5 winners to get a clear margin over their Official mark. It was a good performance in a fairly good race, and as such, should be okay in similar next time.

AL AASIFH also deserves a mention on the same Haydock card, with a provisional mark of 80, well above Class 5 2yo maiden standards. That could go on to much better things.

Nottingham, June 10th was a pretty low grade affair, and explains why Memphis Man was top from a Class 6 h'cap over 6f. He got a rating of 75, plus 10lbs.

REQUISITE - 73, plus 12lbs. 6f Yarmouth, June 10th

Another from the lower ranks, but is much more likely to stay within the bounds of Class 5, given his starting point, so is justified in being given a Top Spot honour.

Volatilis is worth a mention, plus 10lbs for a win in a C6 6f non-h'cap, going up to 74. it too, could feature in similar if in the same mood.


Thursday 10 June 2010

SUNRAIDER

The Top Spot goes to:

SUNRAIDER - 103, plus 14 - 6f Haydock, June 9th

This ran a very quick time compared to the rest of the card, even allowing for the straight course running faster, thanks to the rail being moved on the round course. This is only a provisional rating, as I am still behind on my double checks. However, as it stands, this is above the normal Class 3 norm, and should repeat if not tried too highly.

TANGERINE TREES - 87, plus 10lbs - 6f Hamilton, June 9th

Standing dish at Hamilton, and obliged once more in this Class 4 h'cap. Did not win by far, so not much of the new rating will be lost, so he should go close again.

There was not any thing outstanding from races on June 8th

Best of luck, Gerry

Tuesday 8 June 2010

DUSTER

The Top Spot for June 7th is:

DUSTER - 85, plus 11lbs 6f Folkestone, June 7th.

Only a modest Class 4 h'cap, but 85 bodes well in similar. The sort that could pop up at one of those summer evening meetings at Goodwood, at a big price. It would have to be when the usual standards are well down, but Folkestone and Goodwood require similar types.

MISS KECK - 83, plus 11(and the unlucky Dan Buoy - 89, plus 11lbs) 17f Pontefract June 7th.

They were the best by far, on time. Class 4 stayers will usually find a race, and with this margin less whatever their new OR brings, should make it a little more comfortable next time.

Nothing of note came from Brighton, June 6th.

These Top Spot should soon start winning, or at the very least, point you in the direction of those who finished close up, as ones to keep an eye on.

All for now, Gerry

Sunday 6 June 2010

WORKFORCE

Top spot horses for June 5th:

WORKFORCE - 120, plus 12lbs 12f Epsom June 5th

Not the most improved over the weekend, or even at this course, but his 120 is only so low because it was a weak Derby field, and he himself starts from a very low base, in this grade. However, he dismissed the rest in a manner of a horse capable of posting a rating in the 130's. But for now he is stuck with a modest 120, but he will progress without doubt. Whatever the excuses for the others, he was the one who turned up on the day.

BERTOLIVER - 90, plus 17lbs 5f Epsom June 5th

When things go right this horse is capable of posting very quick times. He has done it before and never followed it up consistently enough to mark him down as a horse to follow... Unless the new trainer has found the magic key?

FORTUNI - 97, plus 12lbs 12f Epsom June 5th

A very respectful rating for this Class 2 handicapper. Should have a bit in hand even after being reassessed. On the upgrade and one to follow.

FLIPANDO - 106, plus 12lbs 6f Epsom June 5th

The old boy certainly has a turn of foot off a fast run race, and could well follow up. At C2 level they are usually are good for pace, but he always needs luck in running. Merits his 106.

EXCEL BOLT - 83, well above race grade. 6f Musselburgh June 5th

If you saw the race, it might not have looked that special ... other than how he got up to win??
COCKTAIL CHARLIE, also 83 - deserves credit too, being short-headed on the line. The time was very quick for 2yo's, and both showed a willing attitude. They will be a danger to many in the better 2yo races.

HARRIS TWEED - 102, plus 16lbs 12f Musselburgh June 5th

He certainly took this field apart, and will be hammered in his ratings, but very much back to his best. This was an above average card for this course, and this Class 2 h'cap looked tight going into it. It depends on his new OR where he goes from here, but he was on fire this day.

SPACE STATION - 82, plus 12lbs Lingfield June 5th

Two good efforts on the trot, and should not be raised too much for this. Another win at this level, Class 5, could well be on the cards.

DAY OF THE EAGLE - 104, plus 20lbs 7f Doncaster June 5th

Excellent rating for a Class 3 h'cap, and one to watch out in this grade.

SEA LORD - 102, plus 11lbs 8f Doncaster June 5th

Another top performance, this time in Class 2 grade. It is hard to get a big mark the higher the level, unless you are on the upgrade, and Sea Lord fits that bill to a tee.

Saturday 5 June 2010

TOP SPOT RUNNERS

These are a list of horses that would have appeared on the Top Spot list, if I had been doing my blog a month or so ago.


3.15 Epsom - HAWKEYETHENOO - 107, plus 19lbs.

Fine in this grade. Only question mark is the course. Newmarket is a far cry from Epsom?

5.20 Epsom - BALDIMAR - 99, plus 6lbs.

No problems with the course with this - won this race last year. Drawn near the pace and running in the same grade. Not a given by any means, but every chance.

3.40 Musselburgh - INGLEBY LADY - 102, plus 5lbs ZIGGY LEE - 94, plus 8lbs

At first glance Ziggy Lee would appear to have the better chance, receiving 11lbs and only 8lbs between them ... But, Ingleby Lady's rating came from this C2 grade, whereas the other was C4!
However, Ziggy Lee did get an 86 rating in a C2, behind Hamish McG, in the race today. That leaves only Carson's claim as a plus? For that reason I would stick with the higher weighted, on the same terms as Hamish McGonagall, at a better price?

5.50 Lingfield - SPACE STATION - 82, plus 12lbs.

Right grade and distance, well drawn but yet to win a race?

8.05 Newcastle - THAT'LL DO NICELY - 69, plus 4lbs.

Dropped to 10f on this stiffer track, otherwise okay.

Friday 4 June 2010

CANSILI STAR

Fully deserving of top spot:
CANSILI STAR - 108, plus 23lbs. 7f Epsom 4th June

Top notch performance in a Class 2 3yo h'cap. It has to take this level to another track, as Epsom is quite unique, and like Chester, form does not always hold up elsewhere. However, the time rating is sound.

SHOCK! HORROR! - Not a single other horse at this venue passed its original rating?!?
Mainly because of the high quality card of course. Fame and Glory was down 11lbs, 117 - even less than his Curragh rating. The Oaks winner only managed a 99, minus 8lbs. However, most proved their class, and higher rating will follow that is for sure.

NINTH HOUSE - 75,plus 15lbs. 8f Doncaster 4th June.

Not an exceptional rating for a Class 4, but it almost certainly means it will stay in that grade, and may strike a sequence with this amount in hand?

NOMOREBLONDES - 76, plus 13lbs. 5f Catterick 4th June.

Similar to the above, winning at a lower level Class 5, but kept to similar has enough in hand to be worth watching out for?
Monterey is worth a mention on the same card, as he recorded a time above average for a C5 maiden at that venue.

LUCKY FLYER - 77, plus 10lbs. 5f Bath 4th June.

Very good rating for a C5 h'cap, and could go on at this level. Bath is a quirky course, so it may pay to wait until she returns there?

DERBY 2010

Here are my time-based ratings for the 2010 Epsom Derby.

in alphabetical order, my ratings are on the left:

105 AL AZIR - Finished 9th in the 2000gns and that is his time-based rating. Will improve on that first run, but how much from a low base and only a so-so run, is open to question.

?? AT FIRST SIGHT - Likely pace setter. No rating

106 AZMEEL - Rating from a bunch finish a Chester 10f Group 3 race. Not an instant standout, but with improvement for the extra 2f, it may be involved.

91 BULLET TRAIN - Poor rating for a Group 3 at Lingfield. Track and distance should suit, but whether he has the class to compete remains a serious doubt.

?? BUZZWORD - Improved markedly from the 2000gns here, to the French 2000, so that a progressive profile emerges. If there was a bit more stamina in his pedigree he could be a serious player - Pivotal - Danehill does not inspire. It would be fairly easy to put a rating of 112 for that last run, as that race looks rock solid. It raced a full second faster than the Fillies race earlier, so as a prep for the Derby it was ideal ... but will it stay??

106 COORDINATED CUT - Another with a poor Group 3 rating, and only 3rd. Improved on a 98 rating from a Class 2 event but needs am awful lot more here. Will struggle to make the frame without such improvement.

89 JAN VERMEER - Hardly considered worthy of a mention for this race whilst his better known stable mate was involved. Now, after beating a poor field for a Group 3, run at a crawl, he leapt into favouritism. Yes , he had good 2yo form. Yes he won this race convincingly, but 89 rating would not cut much ice in a class 2 h'cap, let alone the most prestigious Group 1 race in the world. He still might win, but his price is largely about the win of a crappy G3.

?? MIDAS TOUCH -His win in a 4 horse race may be seen as a bit weak, but the time was smart, compared to the Irish 1000gns and a G3 for older horses run on the same card. He is the one solid performer, with a rating around 115(est.) going into this race. Normal improvement should see him notch around 124-6 and makes him the one to beat.

104 REWILDING - Here is an exciting prospect, but whether this race come too soon in his career only time will tell. He got first run on those who came from well off the pace, in his Group 3 win. However, despite the good impression, the time rating is not good enough - Much slower, comparatively, to the Oaks winner's time earlier, in her prep, on the same card. Big improvement needed, but a hard earned place is not out of the question.

103 TED SPREAD - Yet another with a poor Group 3 rating. His at Chester, where rallied gamely to win. Course and distance should not be a problem ... whether he is good enough is?

107 WORKFORCE - Struggled with his 'bit' when second in his prep race. He may not have beaten the winner that day, but his rating would have been closer to what is required. Still inexperienced, but has a trainer who will have him right on the day. A player methinks?

Conclusion - With known ratings tight, it is all down to who has made the biggest improvement. The O'Brien team are beginning to click now, so MIDAS TOUCH is the most likely winner. The remaining places are Workforce, Jan Vermeer, and Rewilding, perming any 2 from 3. But for a completely 'out left field' small stakes EW, then Buzzword would be the one ...

However, I do repeat, there is no outstanding rating on view, so it is who turns up on the day.

Best of luck,
Gerry

KING OF EDEN

KING OF EDEN - 75, plus 13lbs. Hamilton 6f, June 3rd

Best time of all 3 6f races, and should still enough in hand next time it goes for a Class 5 h'cap over similar conditions.

Sandown, June 3rd:

PALLISADES PARK - 93, plus 10lbs.

Clearly improved from 2yo to 3yo, and should come on again for this first run. One for the notebook for sure. Beating older horses this early in the season is very impressive.

EUCHARIST is also above class 5 maiden auction standard. Only 0.58sec slower than the 3yo above, so this 2yo looks set for better things. It will rate higher than my 77 I'm sure. Interesting at what grade they go h'capping with this one - C4 at minor track would be my guess, and it should do okay at that level.

Afterthoughts ...

I am still attending to the nuts and bolts of my ratings - double checking and getting up to date. Annoyed I have missed some good things lately ... including Musical Bridge yesterday ....by a few minutes!!!
Best of luck,
Gerry

Thursday 3 June 2010

THE OAKS

Here are my time-based rating for the 2010 EPSOM OAKS:

in alphabetical order, and my rating on the left.

?? AKDARENA - I have no rating for this, but what it beat last time were not thought as being the best. She could out-stay them all, or at least get a place ... if she is good enough??

104 AVIATE - Not a high enough rating to be in the top 6 in most years, but it won its Group 3 in battling style. It was a weak race with an 81 rated horse close up 3rd. Needs to improve.

?? AWE INSPIRING - Not likely to enter the calculations in the final furlong, having just won an average maiden last time.

99 BIKINI BABE - Behind Aviate last time, and needs a massive improvement to be close in this. Lacks the class to be seriously considered.

?? CABARET - Is of interest because of who trains him, but well beaten by Aviate last time. Dangerous to just put a line through as the O'Brien horses were not at their peak then.

96 CEILIDH HOUSE - Just faded at the finish behind Timepiece, and with a rating on the wrong side of the century mark, she will struggle to beat more than the non-stayers.

82 CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE - Ran well enough last time, but rating suggests she will be out of her depth in Group 1 company.

83 GERTRUDE BELL - Beat the above last time, but time rating is nowhere near her official mark and probably needs to lower her sights to a more realistic level.

97 MARIE DE MEDICI - won a Listed race last time, but with an 83 rated as runner-up, it backs the low time rating as being short of what is required here.

79 MEEZNAH - Comes here on the back of a Class 4 maiden win in good style. One of the lowest time rating. Amazing if it can produce the same result against horses 6 grades higher!

117 REMEMBER WHEN - A genuine Group 1 performer, albeit at 8f. Stepped down a furlong then, but the 12f at Epsom will a bit of a tilt against her pedigree. If she stays, she wins. Simple.

99 RUMOUSH - Not certain to stay, but the 2000gns finish gives hope. That run is very similar to the 98 for her earlier 9f win. If that is her level, it will not be good enough.

75 SAJJHAA - I am tempted to write Sajj? HaHa! Such is the ambition of her trainer. Class 5 maiden winners do not win Derby's on their second start, and the time rating suggests that she will not begin a trend. I can understand people being taken by her style of victory ... but CLASS 5, please!

109 SNOW FAIRY - Would not have to improve as much as some, and overcame difficulties when winning a Listed race on her only start this season, which will stand her in good stead. Improvement likely, but stamina is again maybe her undoing, for all that she finished 10f of in style.

101 TIMEPIECE She has not shown much spark on the racecourse as he homework would have us believe. She may just be remembering that hard race as a 2yo? However, she is still in this race ... and if she were to put it all in, then she is the one to beat. Assuming she is many lbs better than Aviate. No stamina doubts, just mental ones!

Conclusion - Remember When has the rating to win, and is probably better value than some of the others, even now. EW's on the Bolger horse Akdarena and Snow Fairy are possibles, but look out for the late money on Timepiece?

Best of luck
Gerry

MAID IN HEAVEN

Leicester, 1st June - 7f

MAID IN HEAVEN - 88, plus 12lbs

This came from a Class 4 maiden, and 88 is a very respectful mark to which to begin a h'cap career from. I cannot imagine that the new OR will be anywhere near this, so one to keep an eye out for next time out, at C4 level of course.

Foxy Music - 85, plus 10lbs from the same Leicester card, only at 5f this time.
Again this is a very good mark for a Class 5 h'cap, so may well be worth an investment at a similar level?

Nottingham 2nd June - 5f
PERFECT BLOSSOM - 68, plus 12lbs.

This at a low level 3yo h'cap, but unlikely to rise anywhere near that amount, so if kept to a similar grade and venue it should have a bit in hand?

FORJATT deserves a mention for getting the third best speed figure on this card, which for a 2yo shows a bit of promise of better things to come. It was only just a couple of speed points behind the much vaunted RIO DE LA PLATA, and that horse is rated at a couple of lbs below his mark of 114. Whether he can follow up on this though, is open to question, but they may have got him back to somewhere near his 2yo form?
(Note - do not confuse raw speed figures with the final h'cap rating!)

Ripon 2nd June - 6f

TAJNEED - 100, plus 10lbs
This deserves top spot here, coming from the Class3 sprint h'cap. They may get another similar prize before having to go for a C2 h'cap. Clearly in very good form and will win again.

Tropical Bachelor is obviously better than selling class, with a 74 over the 12f trip. a reasonable Class 6 h'cap should be within his scope with that mark.

Yarmouth 2nd June - 7f

COLLECT ART -63, plus 12lbs
However, this was at the low mark of 51 in a class 6 h'cp for 3yo's. Probably a reflection on how poor the rest of the card was for this to be the relative quickest on the night? It may follow up, but more likely everything fell right for him this night and it will be a long time before his turn comes around again?

No rated race on the 3rd June

No 'Afterthoughts' either ... too busy with the Epsom Oaks and Derby ratings!


Tuesday 1 June 2010

4.15 NOTT

Only a partially rated race in the 4.15 Nottingham, but this horse will almost certainly trade shorter if he is to have any chance?

STADIUM OF LIGHT.

After recent reverses I was going to wait to find the right race, rather than pick one that may be okay. So just glancing down the card at Nott, because I wanted to check out Fuzzy Cat, who is 7lbs well in. However, that was from an Apprentice C6, and Gibbons did not win on him last time.

Then came the 4.15 - Dream Spinner f/c fav and Captain Cool are both okay Class 5 performers, but this Stadium Of Light's run last time out was over this distance, at Sandown, behind a horse who I rate in the low 90's (because this was a fast run race), beaten just over a length, and he only received 7lbs from it. He races today off 69!!!

If ever there was a horse that might turn the tide, I thought this should be it? Yes, the race has some other unexposed sorts in it, but to my mind, this has the form in the book.

Have a good day folks.
Gerry

Afterthoughts ...

I have been using a simple strategy of trusting my ratings when looking at races where I can get a 'handle 'on all the field.
Despite the last 2 race results, if, and that is a big word for us punters looking for a crumb of comfort when things go wrong??
'If' I was certain 'Del Marmi was running, it would have been in my top 3 on figures, and I would have had the first 3 in the race on Monday.
Yesterday, 'if' the ground had stayed firm (weather at the time of writing the blog was 'white cloud') and my top two had run to their previous form I would have had the 1st and 3rd. More annoyingly, I had a get out of jail card nicked from me by Incomparable's rider easing close home when short of room ... I had a big price place only staked ... and the horse who I tipped for an 'in running' place grabbed 3rd spot. Alas, the 7 runner field killed that bet, but mine would have held!
Hey, that is racing for you.

I am working today, and I have a lot of catching up to do, so blogs may be in short supply in the near future?
Cheers, Gerry

TREWARTHENICK

Rated race follows Top Spot

TREWARTHENICK 77 plus 12lbs

Only a modest Class 5, but it was clear best at a fairly poor Chepstow card. I would not like it to try C4 next time because of that, but without a massive hike in its official rating it should be okay.

Best at Carlisle were BRUSHING plus 8lbs and Lake Chini plus 11lbs. The latter at C6 level note!

Goodwood had some very quick times for going described as 'Good', but as the Class 6 rated KILBURN came out best with a plus 14 lbs, suggests something strange? Perhaps the round course was a whole lot quicker than the straight. CLASS IS CLASS pushed his rating up another 8lbs, but unless the times were awry, it needs to do more if he goes up a grade?

Leicester's best was probably ARABIAN PEARL who moved her rating up to 80, plus 11lbs in the C4 fillies h'cap. Still able to find a race within that level, so can also be noted for the future.
The other big improver was CHANNEL CROSSING in the Apprentice race, so could run again without penalty. I have it on 61 which is plus 14lbs, so racing in a similar grade it will have a fair bit in hand?

Finally Redcar, where not surprisingly, FORTE DEL MARMI ran the quickest relative time, getting another 6lbs on his 92. However, FEEL THE HEAT could be interesting as the next quickest, but that depends on the Handicapper how well in it will be ... high 60's fine, but any more than that, it will be difficult methimks?

That concludes the round-up from yesterday. There has yet to be a 'Top Spot' to run again, but I am keeping a close eye out for them because they should be worth the wait.

RATED RACE -simplified version! (Too much analysis of late??)

4 o'clock REDCAR:

In my ratings order. With weight today to 9st7lbs
EVELYN MAY - 80 86
MULLGEN - 79 80
INCOMPARABLE - 77 77
DISPOL KYLIE - 77 80
DESPERATE DAN - 76 82
LUCKY ART - 74 81
LUCKY DAN -74 78
SELECT COMMITEE - 72 82

However, if you want my 'class' adjustments, which brings together C5 and C4 ratings from the various courses the picture changes a fair bit.

EVELYN MAY and INCOMPARABLE go well clear on the strength of their Class 4 Newmarket race, and with the former looking a little unlucky in the race??? Does not win often, but 5f is her trip.
The next best are Lucky Art, Mullglen, and Dispol Kylie. The last named would like a strong pace, so with none guaranteed, it may pay you 'in-running' punters to wait and see if it is run strongly, then pile in for a place bet? Mullglen doesn't usually run two races close together, and as he is tight on runnings with Lucky Art, he will probably just get edged out this time.

There, that was better ... let us hope the result is!!!!

Best of luck on your choices.
Gerry

Afterthoughts ...

None, I had a good night's sleep so I am running late!