in alphabetical order, and my rating on the left.
?? AKDARENA - I have no rating for this, but what it beat last time were not thought as being the best. She could out-stay them all, or at least get a place ... if she is good enough??
104 AVIATE - Not a high enough rating to be in the top 6 in most years, but it won its Group 3 in battling style. It was a weak race with an 81 rated horse close up 3rd. Needs to improve.
?? AWE INSPIRING - Not likely to enter the calculations in the final furlong, having just won an average maiden last time.
99 BIKINI BABE - Behind Aviate last time, and needs a massive improvement to be close in this. Lacks the class to be seriously considered.
?? CABARET - Is of interest because of who trains him, but well beaten by Aviate last time. Dangerous to just put a line through as the O'Brien horses were not at their peak then.
96 CEILIDH HOUSE - Just faded at the finish behind Timepiece, and with a rating on the wrong side of the century mark, she will struggle to beat more than the non-stayers.
82 CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE - Ran well enough last time, but rating suggests she will be out of her depth in Group 1 company.
83 GERTRUDE BELL - Beat the above last time, but time rating is nowhere near her official mark and probably needs to lower her sights to a more realistic level.
97 MARIE DE MEDICI - won a Listed race last time, but with an 83 rated as runner-up, it backs the low time rating as being short of what is required here.
79 MEEZNAH - Comes here on the back of a Class 4 maiden win in good style. One of the lowest time rating. Amazing if it can produce the same result against horses 6 grades higher!
117 REMEMBER WHEN - A genuine Group 1 performer, albeit at 8f. Stepped down a furlong then, but the 12f at Epsom will a bit of a tilt against her pedigree. If she stays, she wins. Simple.
99 RUMOUSH - Not certain to stay, but the 2000gns finish gives hope. That run is very similar to the 98 for her earlier 9f win. If that is her level, it will not be good enough.
75 SAJJHAA - I am tempted to write Sajj? HaHa! Such is the ambition of her trainer. Class 5 maiden winners do not win Derby's on their second start, and the time rating suggests that she will not begin a trend. I can understand people being taken by her style of victory ... but CLASS 5, please!
109 SNOW FAIRY - Would not have to improve as much as some, and overcame difficulties when winning a Listed race on her only start this season, which will stand her in good stead. Improvement likely, but stamina is again maybe her undoing, for all that she finished 10f of in style.
101 TIMEPIECE She has not shown much spark on the racecourse as he homework would have us believe. She may just be remembering that hard race as a 2yo? However, she is still in this race ... and if she were to put it all in, then she is the one to beat. Assuming she is many lbs better than Aviate. No stamina doubts, just mental ones!
Conclusion - Remember When has the rating to win, and is probably better value than some of the others, even now. EW's on the Bolger horse Akdarena and Snow Fairy are possibles, but look out for the late money on Timepiece?
Best of luck
Gerry
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