in alphabetical order, my ratings are on the left:
105 AL AZIR - Finished 9th in the 2000gns and that is his time-based rating. Will improve on that first run, but how much from a low base and only a so-so run, is open to question.
?? AT FIRST SIGHT - Likely pace setter. No rating
106 AZMEEL - Rating from a bunch finish a Chester 10f Group 3 race. Not an instant standout, but with improvement for the extra 2f, it may be involved.
91 BULLET TRAIN - Poor rating for a Group 3 at Lingfield. Track and distance should suit, but whether he has the class to compete remains a serious doubt.
?? BUZZWORD - Improved markedly from the 2000gns here, to the French 2000, so that a progressive profile emerges. If there was a bit more stamina in his pedigree he could be a serious player - Pivotal - Danehill does not inspire. It would be fairly easy to put a rating of 112 for that last run, as that race looks rock solid. It raced a full second faster than the Fillies race earlier, so as a prep for the Derby it was ideal ... but will it stay??
106 COORDINATED CUT - Another with a poor Group 3 rating, and only 3rd. Improved on a 98 rating from a Class 2 event but needs am awful lot more here. Will struggle to make the frame without such improvement.
89 JAN VERMEER - Hardly considered worthy of a mention for this race whilst his better known stable mate was involved. Now, after beating a poor field for a Group 3, run at a crawl, he leapt into favouritism. Yes , he had good 2yo form. Yes he won this race convincingly, but 89 rating would not cut much ice in a class 2 h'cap, let alone the most prestigious Group 1 race in the world. He still might win, but his price is largely about the win of a crappy G3.
?? MIDAS TOUCH -His win in a 4 horse race may be seen as a bit weak, but the time was smart, compared to the Irish 1000gns and a G3 for older horses run on the same card. He is the one solid performer, with a rating around 115(est.) going into this race. Normal improvement should see him notch around 124-6 and makes him the one to beat.
104 REWILDING - Here is an exciting prospect, but whether this race come too soon in his career only time will tell. He got first run on those who came from well off the pace, in his Group 3 win. However, despite the good impression, the time rating is not good enough - Much slower, comparatively, to the Oaks winner's time earlier, in her prep, on the same card. Big improvement needed, but a hard earned place is not out of the question.
103 TED SPREAD - Yet another with a poor Group 3 rating. His at Chester, where rallied gamely to win. Course and distance should not be a problem ... whether he is good enough is?
107 WORKFORCE - Struggled with his 'bit' when second in his prep race. He may not have beaten the winner that day, but his rating would have been closer to what is required. Still inexperienced, but has a trainer who will have him right on the day. A player methinks?
Conclusion - With known ratings tight, it is all down to who has made the biggest improvement. The O'Brien team are beginning to click now, so MIDAS TOUCH is the most likely winner. The remaining places are Workforce, Jan Vermeer, and Rewilding, perming any 2 from 3. But for a completely 'out left field' small stakes EW, then Buzzword would be the one ...
However, I do repeat, there is no outstanding rating on view, so it is who turns up on the day.
Best of luck,
Gerry
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