1000 gns

It has to be MOONLIGHT CLOUD.

I have no rating for this, only a line through Wootton Bassett, but there are so many if's, buts, and maybe's about the rest of the field she seems the logical choice?

Elsewhere it is much the same as yesterday, with better horses now turning up. But not knowing who is fit, or trained on, in the case of the younger brigade, it is not a time to get carried away on the betting front.

In the 3.45 it is particularly trappy, but I give an each way squeak to JACK MY BOY and COLONEL MAK, and if I was in over the cliff mode, Wildcat Wizard. All three have a chance on there best form, but will that be today??

Similar remarks in the opener, and if MAGICALMYSERYTOUR is ridden for a place he could do at big odds.

The only other horse I would give a mention is CRUISER is in the 2.20 at Salisbury. He looks on an upward curve and could be ahead of his mark at present .... but then, so could a few unexposed ones in this field ....?

CAUTION is the watchword today!

Have a good day ...

I am going to rate yesterday's races now ... should be interesting??

FRANKEL'S DAY... again.

I am not going to repeat what I have said already about this horse. Pointless. You either accept the ratings produced by this horse, or you try and find flaws.

Most arguments I've seen are all to easy to counter, even the esteemed Nick Mordin in his piece in the 'Weekender'. He goes on about the stats about horses that have won the races Frankel has being caught out as 3yo. Even he admitted that the Greenham used to be a very good trial until recent years. The thing is, there has not been a horse this good winning these races. The times he has produced, and for the most part it is Frankel that puts the pace in the race, have been exceptional. Timeform revealed that the sectional times have been equally amazing, particularly in the Dewhurst.

To be honest, if Frankel has improved at a normal rate from 2 to 3, then I will be disappointed at anything less than a 5 length victory. I think Henry Cecil, a man reknown for not being too bullish about his charges, is giving the vibes of someone who thinks the same.

Of the opposition, I will give a case for CASAMENTO for the runner up spot. His ratings are sound.I dismiss the thoughts that his preparation is not the best, being a late substitute for the Godolphin number 1. However, they have known that for two weeks and clearly his final workout against one of their speed horses showed he was good enough to keep him in the race?

The Irish pair are difficult to weigh up. RODERICK O'CONNOR got well beaten last time, and the stable have been amazingly quiet since.

PATHFORK last win which had people raving about, has some distinct form flaws. The second, Glor Na Mara had almost certainly passed his peak by then. The third, Samuel Morse was wildly overrated in my book.

That leaves SAAMID, who quite frankly I was amazed how he was favourite for the Dewhurst. No matter how 'Pegasus-like' he was in his previous run may have been, the overall time was not good .... and that is the big difference between FRANKEL and the rest of them ...

When he puts pace in the race it sticks, and I see it being no different today.

However, I do see plenty of big price winners going in It is partly that some of the form so far will not stand up against the best from last year. Not to mention those improving from last year. Fortunately, after this weekend there should be enough to go on to dispense with much looking over the shoulder at 2010.

Most races I have looked at have all got issues, either with draw or going, or recent form.

So the list is small:

200 Newmaket: PROPONENT

Could get "Frankie' off to a good start?

4.55 Newmarket: CAI SHEN

Despite all the 'jockey what won it' after his last win, they forget the horse showed a nice turn of foot and they weren't closing on the line?

4.10 Thirsk: SMARTY SOCKS

Need luck in running here, but he is on a handy mark.

7.45 Doncaster: WE HAVE A DREAM

On his good form he has a great chance, but not that realiable? Price reflects that?

Have a good day ...

Back to top level ..

I have to admit I made this rollercoaster start to the Flat season worse by thinking that no racing took place on Easter Sunday .... Doh!!

Of course the Monday was pretty dire, but at least we have one good day prior to the Classic weekend.

My top rated for Ascot are as follows:

2.00 Ascot - MAGIC CITY

2.30 Ascot - FLOOD PLAIN

3.05 Ascot - ZACINTO - (ST MORITZ better bet?)

The reason for going against Zacinto are partly the going, and partly the way he finished the season? Both the above and SIDE GLANCE have sound claims over the remainder of the field.

3.40 Ascot - FREE AGENT

4.I5 Asot - MARGOT DID

Top rated likes the ground, ANEDAAH could be an each way, 2nd rated and over priced at 20/1

4.50 Ascot - HUZZAH

Joint top rated with GUEST BOOK, but selection has never started in Class 4 races for years. He may not be as good as he was, but he still ran some tidy races last year. OR of 80, down from the high nineties not long back and it could be just enough to revive winning ways?

Have a good day ...

Heading for SANDOWN

... but bypassing the jumps naturally. I'll be glad when this season finishes, but of course next season starts on Monday! Perhaps trainers should have to declare which horses they will run in the summer, similar to football clubs having to name their squads?

Just a thought?

3.45 SANDOWN: CITYSCAPE

Yes, Dick Turpin's run behind Goldikova probably does rate highly, but that was on soft ground. On all other rating I have the selection ahead. It may also like a thunderstorm, being by Selkirk, but it has only run once on fast was behind Sea the Stars. It ran poorly, it has to be said, but it finished last year on a high, so could still improve some more to get away with it on this ground?

I am not going to rattle through a load of possibilities because some of the racing isn't worth it. Although the handicap at 4.50 will be interesting. The new rules mean Gunner Lindley has the wide draw now, and may still gain a place, but I'd rather sit this one out.

It's going to be a long season, so why take risks now?

Have a good day ...

After the glut ...

At last, a half decent h'cap after Saturday's over-kill?

3.10 PONTEFRACT: WILDCAT WIZARD each way

Alas, I do not think the 16/1+ will hold with it being a Nicholls horse sporting blinkers for the first time? However, my interest comes from two angles; 1, he is well in on his best form. 2, his profile for the previous two seasons show his first run on turf is poor, but both times his next run is a place. Now with similar circumstances applying here, plus the above, he might turn that into a win.

Yes, from the draw he will need luck in running.

Bigger problem will be HOOF IT. That finished 2010 on a high,and if he carries that over to this season, he is the one to beat. I do not think the 6f will be a problem having won at a lower level over this trip, and he is now a 4yo so should be fine. My one doubt out him is this race ... it is a bit early in the season for a horse who could go on to all the top sprints later in the year? So this may just be a pipe-opener and a test to see if the Wokingham could be a target before going up a grade or two? All of which gives the selection a chance to sneak a win from his lowest mark for ages.

Have a good day!

Review No2

L et us start with the 'Classic trials'.

Newmarket - Free Handicap: Pausanius won it nicely enough from Rerouted, but both would have to improve again if they are to figure at Group 1 level. On my figures, about another 10lbs. Whilst not impossible, a tad unlikely.

Newmarket - Nell Gwyn Stakes: Won by Barefoot Lady. Now this race had some nice fillies in it, but, like the race above, much more needed if they go on to the 1000gns. The runner up, Sing Softly ought to have done better having had a run this season. Maqaasid ran as though the run would bring out more next time. However, Show Rainbow in fourth really boosted her rating, and if drops down to Listed grade should do okay.

Newmarket - Fielden Stakes: Dordogne ran a gallant race from the front, but the time was not great, so I would expect a number these to turn to Class 2 3yo h'caps?

Newmarket - Craven Stakes: This went to Native Khan, who did not quite match his handicap mark, but did it rather well. I think I heard mutterings of going to 'one of the Guineas'. Which if you read into that, not the stronger version run over this course, then I think it probably quite a wise move. It was a bit below Group 3 level and several ran well off their current ratings, including the runner up Libranno.

Newbury - Fred Darling Stakes: A visually deceptive race, with the first two home looking very good indeed. The winner, Rimth, took it up inside the final furlong showing a nice turn of foot. Sharnberry got going late, but was a good second. Visually very good, but time-wise it was only average. So by the time these get reassessed they will appear far better in similar non-handicap races than they are, so are not necessarily going to follow up?

Newbury - Greenham Stakes: FRANKEL ... What can I say that I did not say before the race? He ran the stone below his best rating, beat the field easily, and was only 80% fit according to his trainer. He did try and pull too hard, but not enough ever look like losing? The firm ground did not bother him ... Henry Cecil said he is better on a fast surface, which probably puts the last nail in the hopes of anything beating him in the 2000gns in my opinion.

Not that was in much doubt? Roderick O'Connoer pushed him hard last time they met, but so far the Irish brigade do not seem to be all that hot at the moment. Even Fame and Glory had to be pushed hard to win at Navan today(Sunday), against a rival rated 91. The time was poor for that grade too.

So, like yesterday, Frankel is the only horse to beat Frankel. They will go more of a pace in the Guineas so the pulling should be less of a problem. Will the extra furlong? Unlikely with all the talk of doing the Derby-Guineas double, but you never know until they do it? Will the 'dip' unbalance his long striding action. That is a possibility, although it did not bother him last year.

I am sure something will be runner up, and no doubt curse the fact that they were born in the same year, because, accidents apart, I do not see a horse with this much natural speed stopping at one Group 1 success? I will hold my thoughts on the Derby to nearer the time, but if he takes that on route to the King George and the Arc, we really will have sometime to remember this year for?

Hold that thought ...

FRANKEL'S DAY??

Just three things to say about the above;

1, Have you seen a 3yo start the season on a 126 Official rating?

2, Have you seen the same with a 141 RP rating?

3, Ditto with a 138 Topspeed rating?

The latter is the key one, as it was achieved over 7f, not a juvenile sprinter. Nor is it a playground bully's rating, as it was better than all the older horses on that day!!

Will it win today? The possible negatives are the firm ground will enable the others to stick with him and do him for speed at the finish - given he will not be trained up to the hilt for this race?

Also has he not developed at the same rate as the others and the others have caught up?

Possible, so who is the biggest threat?

FRANKEL - If he pulls too hard, or goes off too quick for his current fitness level? The rest can only hope that this is the case. It may be closer that the odds would suggest, and it is highly unlikely he will improve his rating today. But if he comes through this well, the 2000gns looks a formality?

As with Sea The Stars, I will doubt the Derby is his trip until it happens.

Elsewhere, well there is so much that it needs more time than have to analyse properly, but ...

7.20 Doncaster, if the money comes late, I give NORTHSIDE PRINCE a chance of this mark.

3.45 Newbury - PRIME EXHIBIT each way

3.0 Ripon - MONTPARNASSE has a great chance on his best form.

Have a good day, Gerry

NEWBURY - Friday

Still caveating ....

2.10 Newbury: EL MUQBIL

I have this being way ahead of his h'cap mark, but a note of caution. His price will be very tight come post time, probably too short for one who has his quirks??

ATTRACTED TO YOU is the main danger, as he too has a good mark to start his 3yo career.

Skipping past the unknowns ...

4.25 Newbury: CAI SHEN

I only have 3lbs separating the selection and AL KAZEEM and THIMAAR, so the current odds dictate. Not with any great conviction in a race where tactics will be all too important.

4.55 Newbury : MOORHOUSE LAD each way.

Again, an optimistic choice for a horse who has never won first time out. But then, up until last season he started off in Group 3 level ... He has now dropped below the level at which won those higher grade races. Not the force he was, but a couple of runs at Musselburgh shows he is not lost it completely. Current price of 25/1 looks generous to me?

SECRET ASSET scored better than his current OR, and Iver Bridge Lad did no harm to the Nottingham form yesterday. Should go well.

5.25 Newbury: EPSOM SALTS ... just!

SATWA GOLD is not far behind, and if he ran one of his 'blinders' he would be a real threat. That is a big 'IF' though?

The selection stays the trip well, and if he gets the breaks he should win, as he could rate much higher on some of his turf form. However, this being a Class 4 event, any one of the hurdling brigade could spring a shock?

Have a good day, Gerry

p.s. I shall delay my round up on the past week until Sunday so I can take in the Guineas trials.

But as a foretaste of tomorrows race consider this regards FRANKEL

At the end of last season, on 'Champions Day' at Newmarket, where the average rating of the winners ... AVERAGE note! And it included the 89 h'cap winner to boot ... was 111(you do not get that at Royal Ascot very often) ... and yet ... AND YET...

Two year old Frankel recorded the relative fastest time of the day!!

I should add, I make no concessions to TYO's, they race against their seniors purely on time merit, and it has been a long time since I have recorded anything as good as that one.

You can see where Pricewise is coming from, as RODERICK O'CONNOR was 1.5 lengths behind, so any hint that the former is not 100% right in the 2000gns, he should be the one to beat.

Tomorrow, FRANKEL can run a stone below his best and still beat last years best.

Something to look forward to methinks???

Newmarket -Thursday

Same caveat as yesterday ...

3.0 Newmarket:

Interesting race as these step up in trip, but will it suit?

TOGETHER is both a worthy favourite, but also worth taking on. Probably being used by Aiden O'Brien to test the form levels over here with one of his lesser lights? Trip will be fine, but the ground would be a worry for me.

MEASURING TIME should also be better at this trip. Ground fine and probable the one to beat?

STATE OPERA will like the trip, but a Sadler's Wells colt out of an Unfuwain mare screams 'SOFT going' to me??

So the selection is : MADAWI each way. Should get the trip okay, and may do better on a firm surface. More important, it has a rating to be competitive.

3.35 Newmarket:

DONCASTER ROVER each way.

It got no run last time, but think back 12 months ago, it ran a excellent race behind Equiano. I see nothing of that calibre here?

GENKI is clear on ratings. However, whilst he always runs a good race first time out, it is not his top form. Course and going make him the one to beat despite that.

SOCIETY ROCK is certainly worth taking on. Apart from looking like an 'Ascot' horse, his ratings do not match the above.

4.10 Newmarket:

Probably best look out for a horse trained to win this rather than the 2000gns??

4.45 Newmarket:

Another race where the market leaders have question marks against them.

The French horse has firm ground for the first time.

The 2010 2000gns fifth has to be dodgy as it never ran again?

FORTE DEL MARMI good handicapper as he is, the ratings don't quite stretch into this grade?

STEELE TANGO is coming back from Meydan, which is usually a concern?

The selection is|: RANSOM NOTE each way.

Similar comments may apply as to the above, except he is only a 4yo and got better as the year went on. If he stays the trip he looks nailed on for a place, and might take the win as a bonus?

Have a good day, Gerry

Flat 2011 starts here!

Top class racing today. However, as with all the top 3yo races at this time of year, two things have to be considered:

1, Have they trained on ... so they are at least as good as when they left off last season, but preferably better.

2, Are they fit ... fit enough to take on a trials, when their real target is a couple of weeks away.

With that in mind, I only put these selections up for consideration.

3.0 Newmarket - MASAYA each way.

3.35 Newmarket - REROUTED

4.10 Newmarket - MAQAASID

4.45 Newmarket - DORDOGNE

5.55 Newmarket - CHILWORTH LAD

Have a good day, Gerry

National tip? ... nah!

My fortunes have not been great so far on the Flat, but I am that daft as to try and pick a winner in a 44 runner handicap with fences in the way!

If I was tempted at all, it would be in the 3.15 at THIRSK.

(EDIT - Post race) Well I was right in every respect except for the odd error: 1, the race was over 6f, not 7f. 2, The tactics described below were therefore a load of ballcocks! 3, The race was ENTIRELY made up of sprinters ... because it was a sprint!!!! - Putting that to one side, the argument of taking on Redford proved correct, but annoyingly I ruled out my first choice because he had not won over 7f ... but as he didn't need to, the bugger duly won over the required 6f - Note to self; Get your act together.)

I would fancy taking on Redford first time out. It may be his distance, 7f, and he may well be the best horse in the race ... on his day??

That is the big question mark against him. He usually needs a race or two, and prefers soft ground, as well as be in the mood for it.

There are several sprinters in the race, Hamish Mcgonagall for one, and Tax Free for another. Both capable of stretching to 7f in a small field.

Damika has more to do while Evens and Odds has failed at this trip before, although the track may suit.

Castles in the Air had no more than a run out in the Lincoln, racing as he did, on the 'wrong' side, and the trip will suit ... if they go a good pace.

Rash Judgement is the outsider and could get a soft lead

However, the way I see the race going is the one of the Nicholls pair will take them along at only a fair pace in the hope that they have the speed at the finish. So if Redford doesn't feel up for a battle, then I would take TAX FREE and HAMISH MCGONAGALL to fight out the finish.

Soon the Flat will get under way properly with the Guineas and Derby trials just around the corner. It will be great to see how well the many good 2yo's have trained on. Can't wait!

Have a good day, Gerry

Round up ... April 2nd and 3rd

Saturday:

The Doncaster meeting was very unsatisfactory from a ratings point of view. The stands side clearly had the best ground (that is to say, the most grass!) in the opener. In the next they crowded on to the nearside rail resulting in very few getting a clear run.

In the Lincoln, those that could raced stand side did so, but some drifted to the middle at the finish. So not a fair reflection to make any sound ratings from.

Time wise, it was also a bit average. The winners of the first three races only really matching their current ratings.(edit)

In the 2yo race (the Brocklesby) it was only fair, but who knows with 2 year olds at this time of year?

The two class 4 handicaps were won by the top-weights, and showed both winners had trained-on, but not a lot more.

Mirrored, a 4yo won carrying 9.7, but this was only a modest class 4, and previous efforts were a much better standard than this. However, he should go on from this.(EDIT-6/4/2011)

So the only horse who substantially improved came in the final race ...

FRONTLINE GIRL - This was only a class 5 apprentice h'cap, but the time was good and had some good benchmarks in 3rd, 4th, and 5th - Gala Casino Star, Rosbay and Kings Counsel(edit) - so the rating of 71 may well be okay next time out? Likewise the 2nd, ZAFRANAGAR who had some form last year.

Sunday ... Doncaster:

I think again, the best you can say about all these races is that the winners matched their current rating. That is to say, they will have to improve next time because they will find their marks will go up.

The one positive I would pick upon is HORSERADISH.

When a horse improves towards the end of a season, it can be difficult for them to maintain that the following year. So I think this should go on and have a pretty good season if he is not too highly tried early on.

(Note - I am in edit mode, 7.45pm Wednesday, 6th April) -I should also include a positive for;

IVORY SILK - Only a head behind the above and did improve on his current rating.

Curragh:

Contrasting fortunes here.

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY ... I can only rate this at 79(edit), which is basically class 4 maiden entry level!

Yes, first run for nearly a year. Yes it was heavy ground. But even so, this was very disappointing. So much was expected after a spectacular 2yo career, and if you put that to one side, his 2000 Guineas run was pretty good. Group 3 at least. Whatever they think was the problem, this outing shows as to what level he fallen to, and has a very long way to go if he is going to be even a shadow of his former self. Very sad.

The winner, Unaccompanied will find it very tough when he is reassessed!!(EDIT - Note; This was run at a 2 mile hurdle pace!!)

The positives are ...

LOLLY FOR DOLLY and THE CHEKA who fought out the finish of the Group 3 7f race

Both get a deserved 118 rating, and they will be a force to reckon with in Group 1 races. I am not sure how much they are ground dependent, as the former ran well enough on good to firm. On the upgrade without a doubt

WEST COAST DREAM also clocked a useful time in the 6f h'cap and should be noted if it crosses the water for a race over here.

SING SOFTLY won, but did not improve her current rating.

Well that is it.

Gerry

NOTTINGHAM 2.50

CAPTAIN DUNNE

This horse is not top rated, but is one of the few who will handle the very fast ground. The expected withdrawal of Iver Bridge Lad will not alter the race unduly, as the selection will blast off and try and make all. Despite top-weight, first run, and so so draw, I think he will be okay.

This conclusion is largely based on the doubts of the rest in these conditions. True, as with all selections, you have to take fitness level on trust, but the Captain has gone well fresh on fast ground and runs gun-barrel straight.

Once again, yesterday saw my selection be comfortably beaten, but it is early in the season?

I will do a round up of the weekends racing on a separate blog, with a couple of horses to look out for in the near future.

Have a good day, Gerry

p.s. Sorry, still not back on Facebook whilst catching up with last season.

4.10 Pontefract

CHANGING THE GUARD gets the nod over Arlequin.

No joy at Doncaster, where Doncaster Rover did not look happy before being crowded out of it. He is better than that.

Picked the wrong side for hopefuls in the Lincoln.

Have a good day, Gerry

CAMMIDGE TROPHY

At the time of writing, 9.30pm Friday April 1st ....

DONCASTER ROVER is 13.5 on Betfair.

It is clear on my ratings, and it will not surprise me to find it PRICEWISE selection in the morning.

I say that because he also looks for horses who are well treated on their best form,and their price is on the big side.

In the Lincoln I am restricted in not having the whole of 2010 form, and unlike the above race, where most of the big sprints have gone by the Doncaster St Leger meeting(which is where I am at now), so I could not make any firm selection here, or in the Spring Mile earlier. However, with pace on both sides, the middle is not the place to be drawn. The favourite, Taqleed is mighty close to the edge in the 11 box?

Personally I think Dandy Nicholls will provide two of the first three home, with Al Muheer coming out best.

Mata Keranjang has been backed for the opener, and should go well.

Have a good day,Gerry