1, Have you seen a 3yo start the season on a 126 Official rating?
2, Have you seen the same with a 141 RP rating?
3, Ditto with a 138 Topspeed rating?
The latter is the key one, as it was achieved over 7f, not a juvenile sprinter. Nor is it a playground bully's rating, as it was better than all the older horses on that day!!
Will it win today? The possible negatives are the firm ground will enable the others to stick with him and do him for speed at the finish - given he will not be trained up to the hilt for this race?
Also has he not developed at the same rate as the others and the others have caught up?
Possible, so who is the biggest threat?
FRANKEL - If he pulls too hard, or goes off too quick for his current fitness level? The rest can only hope that this is the case. It may be closer that the odds would suggest, and it is highly unlikely he will improve his rating today. But if he comes through this well, the 2000gns looks a formality?
As with Sea The Stars, I will doubt the Derby is his trip until it happens.
Elsewhere, well there is so much that it needs more time than have to analyse properly, but ...
7.20 Doncaster, if the money comes late, I give NORTHSIDE PRINCE a chance of this mark.
3.45 Newbury - PRIME EXHIBIT each way
3.0 Ripon - MONTPARNASSE has a great chance on his best form.
Have a good day, Gerry
No comments:
Post a Comment