Most arguments I've seen are all to easy to counter, even the esteemed Nick Mordin in his piece in the 'Weekender'. He goes on about the stats about horses that have won the races Frankel has being caught out as 3yo. Even he admitted that the Greenham used to be a very good trial until recent years. The thing is, there has not been a horse this good winning these races. The times he has produced, and for the most part it is Frankel that puts the pace in the race, have been exceptional. Timeform revealed that the sectional times have been equally amazing, particularly in the Dewhurst.
To be honest, if Frankel has improved at a normal rate from 2 to 3, then I will be disappointed at anything less than a 5 length victory. I think Henry Cecil, a man reknown for not being too bullish about his charges, is giving the vibes of someone who thinks the same.
Of the opposition, I will give a case for CASAMENTO for the runner up spot. His ratings are sound.I dismiss the thoughts that his preparation is not the best, being a late substitute for the Godolphin number 1. However, they have known that for two weeks and clearly his final workout against one of their speed horses showed he was good enough to keep him in the race?
The Irish pair are difficult to weigh up. RODERICK O'CONNOR got well beaten last time, and the stable have been amazingly quiet since.
PATHFORK last win which had people raving about, has some distinct form flaws. The second, Glor Na Mara had almost certainly passed his peak by then. The third, Samuel Morse was wildly overrated in my book.
That leaves SAAMID, who quite frankly I was amazed how he was favourite for the Dewhurst. No matter how 'Pegasus-like' he was in his previous run may have been, the overall time was not good .... and that is the big difference between FRANKEL and the rest of them ...
When he puts pace in the race it sticks, and I see it being no different today.
However, I do see plenty of big price winners going in It is partly that some of the form so far will not stand up against the best from last year. Not to mention those improving from last year. Fortunately, after this weekend there should be enough to go on to dispense with much looking over the shoulder at 2010.
Most races I have looked at have all got issues, either with draw or going, or recent form.
So the list is small:
200 Newmaket: PROPONENT
Could get "Frankie' off to a good start?
4.55 Newmarket: CAI SHEN
Despite all the 'jockey what won it' after his last win, they forget the horse showed a nice turn of foot and they weren't closing on the line?
4.10 Thirsk: SMARTY SOCKS
Need luck in running here, but he is on a handy mark.
7.45 Doncaster: WE HAVE A DREAM
On his good form he has a great chance, but not that realiable? Price reflects that?
Have a good day ...
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