Thursday 14 April 2011

NEWBURY - Friday

Still caveating ....

2.10 Newbury: EL MUQBIL

I have this being way ahead of his h'cap mark, but a note of caution. His price will be very tight come post time, probably too short for one who has his quirks??

ATTRACTED TO YOU is the main danger, as he too has a good mark to start his 3yo career.

Skipping past the unknowns ...

4.25 Newbury: CAI SHEN

I only have 3lbs separating the selection and AL KAZEEM and THIMAAR, so the current odds dictate. Not with any great conviction in a race where tactics will be all too important.

4.55 Newbury : MOORHOUSE LAD each way.

Again, an optimistic choice for a horse who has never won first time out. But then, up until last season he started off in Group 3 level ... He has now dropped below the level at which won those higher grade races. Not the force he was, but a couple of runs at Musselburgh shows he is not lost it completely. Current price of 25/1 looks generous to me?

SECRET ASSET scored better than his current OR, and Iver Bridge Lad did no harm to the Nottingham form yesterday. Should go well.

5.25 Newbury: EPSOM SALTS ... just!

SATWA GOLD is not far behind, and if he ran one of his 'blinders' he would be a real threat. That is a big 'IF' though?
The selection stays the trip well, and if he gets the breaks he should win, as he could rate much higher on some of his turf form. However, this being a Class 4 event, any one of the hurdling brigade could spring a shock?

Have a good day, Gerry

p.s. I shall delay my round up on the past week until Sunday so I can take in the Guineas trials.
But as a foretaste of tomorrows race consider this regards FRANKEL

At the end of last season, on 'Champions Day' at Newmarket, where the average rating of the winners ... AVERAGE note! And it included the 89 h'cap winner to boot ... was 111(you do not get that at Royal Ascot very often) ... and yet ... AND YET...

Two year old Frankel recorded the relative fastest time of the day!!

I should add, I make no concessions to TYO's, they race against their seniors purely on time merit, and it has been a long time since I have recorded anything as good as that one.

You can see where Pricewise is coming from, as RODERICK O'CONNOR was 1.5 lengths behind, so any hint that the former is not 100% right in the 2000gns, he should be the one to beat.

Tomorrow, FRANKEL can run a stone below his best and still beat last years best.
Something to look forward to methinks???

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