Sunday 17 April 2011

Review No2

L et us start with the 'Classic trials'.

Newmarket - Free Handicap: Pausanius won it nicely enough from Rerouted, but both would have to improve again if they are to figure at Group 1 level. On my figures, about another 10lbs. Whilst not impossible, a tad unlikely.

Newmarket - Nell Gwyn Stakes: Won by Barefoot Lady. Now this race had some nice fillies in it, but, like the race above, much more needed if they go on to the 1000gns. The runner up, Sing Softly ought to have done better having had a run this season. Maqaasid ran as though the run would bring out more next time. However, Show Rainbow in fourth really boosted her rating, and if drops down to Listed grade should do okay.

Newmarket - Fielden Stakes: Dordogne ran a gallant race from the front, but the time was not great, so I would expect a number these to turn to Class 2 3yo h'caps?

Newmarket - Craven Stakes: This went to Native Khan, who did not quite match his handicap mark, but did it rather well. I think I heard mutterings of going to 'one of the Guineas'. Which if you read into that, not the stronger version run over this course, then I think it probably quite a wise move. It was a bit below Group 3 level and several ran well off their current ratings, including the runner up Libranno.

Newbury - Fred Darling Stakes: A visually deceptive race, with the first two home looking very good indeed. The winner, Rimth, took it up inside the final furlong showing a nice turn of foot. Sharnberry got going late, but was a good second. Visually very good, but time-wise it was only average. So by the time these get reassessed they will appear far better in similar non-handicap races than they are, so are not necessarily going to follow up?

Newbury - Greenham Stakes: FRANKEL ... What can I say that I did not say before the race? He ran the stone below his best rating, beat the field easily, and was only 80% fit according to his trainer. He did try and pull too hard, but not enough ever look like losing? The firm ground did not bother him ... Henry Cecil said he is better on a fast surface, which probably puts the last nail in the hopes of anything beating him in the 2000gns in my opinion.
Not that was in much doubt? Roderick O'Connoer pushed him hard last time they met, but so far the Irish brigade do not seem to be all that hot at the moment. Even Fame and Glory had to be pushed hard to win at Navan today(Sunday), against a rival rated 91. The time was poor for that grade too.
So, like yesterday, Frankel is the only horse to beat Frankel. They will go more of a pace in the Guineas so the pulling should be less of a problem. Will the extra furlong? Unlikely with all the talk of doing the Derby-Guineas double, but you never know until they do it? Will the 'dip' unbalance his long striding action. That is a possibility, although it did not bother him last year.
I am sure something will be runner up, and no doubt curse the fact that they were born in the same year, because, accidents apart, I do not see a horse with this much natural speed stopping at one Group 1 success? I will hold my thoughts on the Derby to nearer the time, but if he takes that on route to the King George and the Arc, we really will have sometime to remember this year for?
Hold that thought ...

No comments:

Post a Comment