More of a race by race blog today, and following the pattern throughout the week.
The weather is the unpredictable thing, and could have a big bearing on the key races. But I will edit up to 9.0am on race day to take acoount of that. The going is good at present (Monday), but showers are possible. However, if the predicted high temperatures with sunshine by midday Tuesday, then I expect the course to dry out to slightly on the fast side of good. Going stick 8.9 to 9.1 on the straight, round 8.3
ASCOT 2.30: 8f Group1 Queen Anne Stakes
ANIMAL KINGDOM is the one to beat, if he handles the track and occasion. No doubt he has been kept back with this race in mind, and is a top class performer. Odds are too short to be of any value, except for the wealthy punter that can afford a reverse? That makes the the place/possible upset more of interest.
Current price 2/1
CHIL THE KITE looks the most interesting, providing it does not dry out too much. He has a bit to find on ratings, but would not be the greatest surprise if he reversed recent form.
Current price 33/1
SOVEREIGN DEBT got closest to the absent Farhh, and although well beaten that day it is still strong form. He has run well at this track, which is a bonus.
Current price 16/1
ALJAMAAHEER just behind the above in the Lockinge, and finished well from the rear. and could be the most progressive of the four to come on from that race.
Current price 12/1
TRUMPET MAJOR has no chance the three above, unless there is a heavy downpour. He is a classy hrse in the soft.
Current price 33/1
ELUSIVE KATE has a rating from last season that puts her well in the mix. Whether she will put in this time after a big break is another question. A note from a recent gallop suggested that she was showing temperament issues, and that is not a good sign. She had a tough campaign last year and it might beginning to show. I would not be confident that she is in full heart after such a bad spring until after this race?
Current price 8/1
PENITENT won this two seasons ago, and has run some great races in between. But this term looks to have a bit to find, and would benefit from more give.
Current price 40/1
GABRIAL is the only other one that has a rating that puts him near this grade. He needs to improve, but is on an upward curve. He wears cheek pieces for the first time, and has the assistance of the inform K. Fallon on board. Not without a place chance at least.
Current price 33/1
GREGORIAN will do well to confirm placings with the above, on this very different track. A solid runner, but perhaps better in the lesser grades.
Current price 18/1
Of the remainder;
TRADE STORM has not run since Meydan. Turf form not good enough.
LIBRANNO is best at 7f
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER would be a major upset on all known form.
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ASCOT 3.05: 5f Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes
SHEA SHEA represents a really strong overseas challenge on his Meydan form. But this is Ascot. Not every horse takes to the surface, nor the minor undulations. It is also a stiff 5f, with a climb to the line almost all the way. Reasons enough to look for an upset or each way chance, as in the first race.
But having said all that, the way this horse dismissed Sole Power on his favoured fast surface puts the home contingent with something to find.
Current price 2/1
SOLE POWER has the best rating from his earlier win. Reunited with J Murtagh is a major plus, as a late thrust off a fast pace is what he needs. It did not work out for him last time, where he was behind some rivals here today. His record at Ascot is not good, and I put that down to the surface here. He likes to bounce off
really quick ground, this surface does not give him the same feel, and more so today if it remains only good.
Current price 9/1
RECKLESS ABANDON is a horse I like. Quirky but talented. He was my highest rated 2yo last season, and first time out against his elders he clocked another solid one. With improvement from that first race he is right up there with the best. The big problem as I see it, is that he is drawn away from Shea Shea, where the is a possible front runner, and they come down the middle of the track, and Reckless can often abandon a straight line? Represents the biggest danger to the favourite, but will need things to go right.
Current price 5/1
SPIRIT QUARTZ I make the next best of the 'home-based' runners. He is drawn highest of all, nearest the stand side rail, which makes quite a collection of high class horses drawn this side, but all need to be taken into the race. On the other hand, if they do come to stand side it might leave Shea Shea isolated in the middle of the track? he would get a clear run out there, whereas there are likely to be hard luck stories with the others. This horse will try and run his race whatever, and has every chance if he gets the run of the race.
Current price 16/1
SHAME EXPRESS may look a bit short on his international rating, but t is always wise to respect the Aussie runners. He will have Shea Shea for company on the far side which should be an intriguing contest in itself .. the rugby heavyweights, South Africa v Australia? How it will end we will see, but both have to handle these different conditions.
Current price 10/1
HEERAAT, and KINGSGATE NATIVE are the last of the runners with a decent rating this term, but the former has a bit to find with the latter, and that is drawn close to Shea Shea, for better or worse?
SWISS SPIRIT is only just behind those two, and is improving. Whether this race is a bit early in the season and halts that upward trend is the question.
Current price 8/1
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ASCOT 3.45: 8F Group 1 St James Palace Stakes 3yo's
DAWN APPROACH mmmn, I keep hearing how this horse would be a worthy odds-on shot without his Derby run. I am in a minority, because I base my ratings on time, that thinks he is vastly overrated, and until he proves it different, so he will remains so. His 2000 Guineas win produce a rating only 1lb better than his Coventry Stakes win a year ago ... and on my figures, never improved upon that.
Having said that, if it were soft here, he would be a banker, but only because most rivals would prefer it fast. How much it dries out during the day, as they are predicting a hot, humid day, with the possibility of thunderstorms?
The shape of the race is quit predictable if the Guineas run is anything to go by. Pacemaker Leitir Mor will take them along at a brisk pace from the off, with Dawn Approach following. If the pack, particularly the O'Brien trio, they will let George Vancouver set the pace at a more sustainable pace, irrespective of what the Bolger pair do. Being able to finish is going to be key. Dawn Approach will maintain a fast pace for 6 of the 8 furlongs, but a repeat of the Guineas run will see him slow up in the final 2f. is possible, for all the hype about the Derby distance not being a problem, he may even revert to sprinting! Those final 2f are why the overall time was relatively slow on Guineas day. Strong chance, but vulnerable. Even if Leitir Mor only goes a 'sensible' pace this horse has not the turn of foot that some of the others have?
Current price 6/4
DUNDONNELL is a horse I really like, and disappointed things did not turn out well enough for him to contend the 8f Classics. He had a better rating than the favourite as a 2yo, and although his last run was not anywhere near that, at least he showed he is on his way back. The muddling pace set by Toranado in his trial race did not suit any better than when beaten last season by him. He will get the fast pace he thrives on here. The other positive, on his second run last season, following a decent debut, he put a time that was only marginally slower than the mighty FRANKEL did on the day, comparatively for each distance against standard. If he does the same here, Dawn Approach will see a new backside disappearing in front of him in the final furlong. He does not want any rain though.
Current price 20/1
MAGICIAN also will like it fast. He has a similar winning profile to Dawn Approach in the Irish 2000gns, in that Trading Leather set a blistering pace for a long, and he went on to win well next time, and Magician swept through late, faster than anything else. Two big differences though. The overall time was, relatively, the fastest of the day. Magician did not just go faster than slow horses, he stayed on strongly. On the basis of that, it is possible that O'Brien will split his tactics, and have Magician alongside, or near Dawn Approach, and try and out speed him to the line? The big danger is that Leitir Mor's pace might be even quicker than that of Trading Leather? Whatever plan they come up with, I would say he is more than capable of matching and surpassing the favourite.
Current price 5/2
MARS will be better suited by this 8f if my Derby blog is anything to go by. The dam side of his pedigree has more speed than stamina, although he may well step up to 10f, possibly as a 4yo. Today, he needs to be closer to the favourite, but not at the expensive of his overall speed. he was lucky in the 2000gns that he did not get involved in the first 2f dash that undid so many. He just needs to be taken into the race steadily, and I see George Washington doing that job for him. He has a lot of ground to make up on ratings, but the best is yet to come. If any of the above falter, he should be the one to pick up the pieces.
Current price 11/1
TORANADO is a horse that has not run a true run race to get a decent rating in my book. This will be his chance if good enough?
Current price 4/1
GLORY AWAITS has a great chance to show that his second in the 2000gns was not a fluke. He certainly matched Dawn Approach's pace at the finish, but I am guessing things will be different here. He is another who might try and use stamina not speed, but it will not be easy.
Current price 25/1
MSHAWISH is an unknown quantity from France. Lightly raced, and seemingly not top level. Perhaps looking for kudos in being here, and place money would be very welcome? He could of course be a hidden gem?
Current price 33/1
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That takes us to halfway. the next race and the last are 2yo races, so with limited ratings to go on I will be brief on those. Rating fall into two camps; those get a decent rating better than the grade standard, and those that fail to get a decent rating in better grade races. I will highlight the best of both.
ASCOT 4.25: 6f Group 2 Coventry Stakes 3yo colts
THUNDER STRIKE is top rated, but failed to better the Listed grade.
Current price 9/1
PARBOLD bettered the Class 3 grade on his only run to date. Very speedy.
Current price 14/1
JALLOTA ran second to Parbold, and the marginally improved on his next run in a Class 3
Current price 33/1
RIVERBOAT SPRINGS was behind Thunder Strike, and further below Listed grade
Current price 10/1
STUBBS was well below Listed grade, and is only just above those who were close to Class 4 grade.
Current price 3/1
How much each will improve is guesswork, but these are nearest to Group grade, but still need to improve.
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ASCOT 5.00: 20f Class 2 h'cap The Ascot Stakes
MUBARAZA comes out on top and should run well.
Current price 9/1
TIGER CLIFF beat the above, but is now worse off. Again, every chance.
Current price 5/1
MYSTERIOUS MAN is little behind those two, and has a handy low weight.
Current price 16/1
JUSTIFICATION is a very close behind the above on figures.
Current price 6/1
WELL SHARP and TANTALISING are the only others that have a mark near this grade on this season's form. But SURAJ has bit of class if up to it on his first run.
Current prices, respectively 10/1, 33/1, 16/1
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ASCOT 5.35: 5f Listed Windsor Castle Stakes 2yo Fillies
STEVENTON STAR is a surprising top rated, but nevertheless, exceeded the C3 grade to do so.
Current price 14/1
SLEEPER KING has twice topped the C3 grade, improving on the last one.
Current price 14/1
JUSTICE DAY has a similar rating to the above, without matching the C3 grade.
16/1
HAIKBIDIAC is just below them but failing in a Listed race
Current price 20/1
Everyone else I rated either fell well short in higher grades, or only did so so in C4 and below. Improvement is not in my capacity to predict. However, I would think from the above an upset is likely?
Remember, the going is verging on good to firm, but showers are forecast forthe area.
Have a good day
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