Before I begin, a quick reflection on yesterday. Dawn Approach put up the relatively fastest time, and increased his rating with me , but not by much, as it did not match his official rating. The messy nature of the race did not help. Looking at today's Jersey stakes, I cannot help wishing Dundonnell had gone for this, because he did not get the fast pace he needed, and did not settle.
With no front runners in the Kings Stand, it was left to the natural speed of Reckless Abandon to tow them along. As I feared, racing down the centre left plenty of room for him to shift to his left. Probably cost him a place, but would have needed more cover to win. There will be other days
Indeed, today is one.
Ascot 2.30: 7f Group 3 Jersey Stakes 3yo
(in betting order)
GALE FORCE TEN - No surprise to see this take over as favourite, and he is my clear top rated. I fully expect him to uphold the Irish 2000gns form, which sadly, Magician failed to do yesterday. The fast ground will be no problem, and the drop back may also improve his chance.
Current odds 9/2
GARSWOOD - This 7f trip is the same as his impressive win in the Free Handicap that was his Guineas trial. Although scoring the same rating for both, his trainer was clearly expecting more. Despite having a lot to find on my ratings, he is still clear of the remainder. Which, on paper makes it look a bit of a sub-standard Group 3? On my ratings, it is between these two.
Current odds 9/2
Even the official ratings reflect this, but there are many in this I have not ratings at all this season, but the best of the rest are;
DON'T BOTHER ME and PARLIAMENT SQUARE.
Current odds 50/1 and 25/1 respectively
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Ascot 3.05: 8f Group 2 Duke of Cambridgeshire Stakes Fillies and Mares ...
(and a possibility for the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes next year?)
DUNTLE - I have her as joint top rated with the second fav, and both are progressive. She has gone a similar way this term and will be hard to beat.
Current odds 5/2
CHIGUN - She has come a slightly different route, but the same resulting figures. Same rating, same form figures - 21. They both look the type to win this, and it is hard to separate them .. before the race that is?
Current odds 3/1
Of the remainder that I have ratings for, both DANK and THISTLE BIRD tie in with the above. However, the first two do have stronger claims from 2012 season.
Current odds 4/1 and 7/1 respectively
DANCEWITHTHEDEVIL has a long layoff to overcome, but is interesting that R.Varian has pitch her in this for a come back? Unknown quantity.
Current odds 20/1
SARKLYLA boast some solid French form, and if handling the track and going, she could be a danger to all.
Current odds 8/1
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Ascot 3.45: 10f Group 1 Prince of Wales Stakes
AL KAZEEM - She is just edging favouritism on the strength of his last run. The rating for that was okay for a small field event. However, he will have to step up again if he is to be a genuine top Group 1 performer.
There did not look anything dubious about his win over his main rival in the betting, and they renew their battle today.
Current odds 9/4
CAMELOT - Once heralded as the next great thing, but has lost a bit of image. I think he is in the So You Think type of runner. No real turn of foot, but can grind out results. He will have a pacemaker here and it will be no surprise to me if he reverses form with the above. J O'B will sit him quietly out the back and will come with a long run for home as the straighten up 2.5f out.
Current odds 5/2
MAXIOS - He could be the fly in the ointment as far as the above two are concerned, especially if the ratings of that pair remain what they were last time. This French challenger boast sound form in a progressive season, but this will be his biggest challenge. Both trip, on this stiff track, and fast going are a bit of an unknown territory, but the race might pan out to suit?
Current odds 5/1
THE FUGUE - She would have strong claims at his best from last season, which was a long one? Not raced yet this season, but has conditions to suit. Tough ask first time out though.
Current odds 5/1
SAINT BAUDOLINO - This is another coming into this after a lay off, since race at Meydan in February. Lightly raced and could be anything this season?
Current odds 10/1
Of the remainder, old timers like RED CADEAUX and SIDE GLANCE will do their best, and MUKHADRAM faces a stiffer test if adopting similar tactics to Sandown, but will be keen to take over from the pacemaker when he fades, I shouldn't wonder? Which leaves AFSARE who is also making his debut here, after a long season last year. None can be ruled completely, but they do have their own issues to deal with first.
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I could spend a long time going through this field, and still not be close to finding the winner, such is the nature of trainers keeping the true ability hidden as best they can. So instead, I will run through the ones I have rated on this season's form, and hope the winner is amongst them?
Ascot 4.25: 8f Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup h'cap
PRINCE OF JOHANNE is getting on in years but is a previous winner of the race. His second in a Listed race, along with his weight here, does give him an excellent chance of repeating his earlier triumph.
Current odds 12/1
BURKE'S ROCK is my second best, and her canny trainer has kept her back after winning a Goodwood Listed contest. Has Ascot specialist, Frankie Dettori on board, and it may be a help to be drawn high.
Current odds 14/1
MORAN GRA has been pottering around in h'caps in Ireland, but the last run was run in a good time. On the same rating as the above, and receives weight from all bar one.
Current odds 22/1
SWEET LIGHTNING at the top of the h'cap will need his rider's claim to be of full value, and a heavy shower of rain would help. Class performer, and Ascot turf is more forgiving than most 'firm' grounds.
Current odds 25/1
TEA FOR TWO is just behind the last pair mentioned, on ratings, and has the in-form trainer/jockey combo to add to his credentials. High drawn.
Current odds 18/1
DON'T CALL ME and NAVAJO CHIEF are on the same rating, and are both solid Class 2 h'cappers. The former drawn low, the latter high.
Current odds 33/1 and 28/1 respectively
STIRRING BALLAD is the last of the ones I rated highly. His trainer clearly thinks he has improved recently, as I always felt his mark was pushing the limit of his ability? He is the current favourite in a very open race, and is drawn low.
Current odds 8/1
These are not the only ones that could win. Course winner EXCELLENT GUEST is an example. Needs to improve on his 7f Victoria Cup win, but his trainer has kept him fresh of his latest mark, and at his best he will come late and fast. Current odds 16/1
There are far too many that fit into that category though.
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This is another race I am not going to spend time on with so little information.
Ascot 5.00: 5f Group 2 Queen Mary Stake 2yo fillies
BELDALE MEMORY is justified as favourite.Clear top rated, and looks very smart.
Current odds 4/1
RIZEENA is the next on my ratings, and in the betting, but has nearly a stone to find on the above
Current odds 6/1
The rest could be anything, but I have no idea how well they will run today.
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The final race today, and is so tricky I am not even going to research ratings on it.
Instead, I will rely on Mr Fallon's judgment of racing qualities, and he has always been sweet on this one.
Ascot 5.35: 8f Sandrigham Listed Fillies h'cap
NARGYS - Has only run once this season, in a Group 2, 1000gns trial behind Hot Snap. Drops down a grade here, and was very consistent last season. It is worth remembering that the 1000gns winner failed to show her form in that race, but went on to win? So the same could happen here.
Current odds 16/1
HINT OF TINT is the only other one I could also give a mention to,, and could build on his 2nd in the Group 3 race last time. Wears a hood for the first time.
Current odds 9/1
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Well that is Day 2 done and dusted ... These blogs may get shorter and shorter if they do not come up with a winner?
Have a good day ....
Note - edit changes on mistakes spotted @ 1.25pm Wednesday
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