It is difficult to choose a race from the multiple options today. With much of the cream waiting for Ascot next week, there are surprisingly strong fields out today. However, with the weather being a little unpredictable, Sandown looks the safest bet to remain dry, at least until 2.30pm I hope?
Sandown 2.20: 8f Class 2 h'cap
(in betting order, as of 5.30am);
ASHAADD:
This race is for 3yo's upwards, and most trainers tend to leave their 3yo's out of battling with their elders until a bit later in the season, despite the weight allowance. ASHAADD is the only 3yo in the field.
That said, his win last time in a C3, for 3yo's only, was top drawer. But despite that, and Ryan Moore in the saddle and stable in top form, I am not keen on any horse going up in grade, and up off a mark that is beyond what I have. He will have to improve again to win this.
Current price 3/1
DANCHAI:
He has not run since the beginning of May, but for a horse who only had one run at 2, two runs at 3, and only that one this term does suggest he is a bit fragile? Mind he must be pretty special to be kept in training, although, being a gelding there is not much else he could do? He was made favourite for his last run, but given his history there is nothing to say he will improve for the race. He seemed to handle the faster ground okay, and the drop back to a mile may help him settle better. Not one I have anything in hand though.
Current price 7/1
ROSERROW:
He won over the C&D last time, but only in a C4 race. Raise mark leaves big questions if he can step up again in a better class race.
Current price 11/1
BANCNUANAHERIANN:
I had him down as a possible selection for the Hunt Cup, as he does well at Ascot, so a little surprised he is here, and risking a penalty for the bigger prize. He also won his last race over 9f, at Goodwood, in a C3 event. This course should suit if there is plenty of pace, but like the above, has nothing in hand on ratings this term, although capable of better from last season.
Current price 12/1
NORSE BLUES:
This would have liked more rain, and as bookies would like a couple to drop out to reduce the field to 15 runners, if it dries up, he could one of their hopes. That said, he did win a C2 on GF last time at Thirsk. This is a stiffer track and may not suit quite as well. Because of that win he got raised above the mark I gave for the race, so he is in a similar category to the above, needs to improve to win?
Current price between 10/1 and 12/1
TRADER JACK:
On the face of it this is another who might prefer it softer. He did okay on GF 2 seasons ago on debut, then followed up on soft for his only win. Given how the summer was last term, he would have done well to avoid soft ground, and although he drew blank, he was in top C2 races. His only run this year was over the C&D in a C3 race where he was 5th. Now I had that down as a good run, but has been dropped a lb. If he can handle the faster ground he is better equipped to win this than the above, and the stable are bang in form.
Current price 12/1
GEORGE GURU:
He has run twice over Goodwood's 7f course and improved his rating both times. If this stiffer track and extra furlong brings any further improvement then he is a danger to all. Now whilst he did okay over the C&D last season, most of his 8f runs were on the easier AW tracks. Is it the 7f on turf that has brought out the best in him, which he cam carry into a stiff 8f is the big question.
Current price 10/1 to 15/1
VAINGLORY:
Sprang a surprise win at Epsom last time, although fully capable of winning such a race. Just a tad inconsistent. However, over a long career he has not been able to put up back-to-back wins, but has put in some good efforts. The trip and track not a problem, nor is the going. But his new mark does not give any in hand. Was slipping down the h'cap, but this is above his highest winning rating.
Current price is hovering around the 12/1 mark
FIRE SHIP:
Only the one run this term, over C&D where he just failed to match his current rating. His rating got a bit skewed after finishing 3rd in a C1 race. Clearly capable of running to that mark, but needs to improve again if to give weight all round here. Not impossible, as he is on an upward curve.
Current price 16/1
BASSETAIRE:
He ran over 10f last time and did okay. Always a horse that looks the type to win a race like this, and 8f on a stiff track should also suit. The stable are doing well, and with a little in hand, he is in with a shout.
GAUL WOOD:
He rounds off my top ten in the betting. Finished ahead of Trader Jack on ground that probably did not suit. Has a C&D win on GF to back that up. On the upgrade, and as there are many others stepping up in grade, but he has shown from that last run that he is up to this level.
Current price 16/1
Of the remainder, Weapon Of Choice could come into it if the weather turns nasty?
Conclusion:
It is a very tight handicap, and I have the following order:
ASHAADD - if you include the 11lbs weight for age. Without it, he drops back to head the pile covered by 3lbs .. It is that tight.
TRADER JACK is my highest clear of the pack
GAULWOOD is just below TJ
BASSETERRE is also clear of the pack.
Read the comments, see which you think offers best value. The latter three are all in EW range.
Just one note of caution, all bar the favourite are drawn wide. Gaul Wood could have problems at the start as he is a prominent racer. The other two are hold up horses so will need luck in running?
Have a good day ...
p.s. I'll be Blogging every day during R.Ascot.
Note to Tony B - It looks like we may have a non-runner next week(Magician), so if you want to go fro a repalcement let me know below. We can send them in independently next time Paul is on TFR, or on the day for his attention. Okay?
May the best tipper win!
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