Curr 6.30: 12f Group 1 Irish Derby
in betting order ...
RULER OF THE WORLD is fully entitled to be favourite, but it was a muddling race in the Epsom Derby. He has steadily improved since his debut earlier in the year, not having raced at two. Entitled to be green, duly scrambled home in a maiden, but that form has not worked out well. Next came a more impressive win at Chester, matching the Group 3 grade standard and showed a good turn of foot. For a stayer, the pace of the Derby should not have suited, but again, he put distance between himself and his rivals in the final half furlong. The question is can he do the same at proper racing pace over 12f? His breeding suggest he should be a class horse, and he has done all he can by winning every race to show that he is a class horse. Today might be the day when he gets the rating to back that up.
Current odds - 1/1(even money, but likely to go off at odds on unless a rival is seriously backed)
LIBERTARIAN was behind the above at Epsom, and would also have been handicapped by the pace of the race. He won the prep race at York by outstaying his rivals, but that was a prep for the Derby, so who was fittest on the day does cloud the value of that form. However, it produced a fair, but not great, rating. Neither improved their ratings in the Derby, although their Official ratings have gone up, albeit on the low side for the big Classic race of the season. On the face of it, there is many reasons to suggest that he can turn that form around, but this flatter track will definitely suit better, and the fast going is similar to Epsom. Stamina should not be a weakness in either horse, but his main hope here is that a true run race takes the edge off Ruler's finish, and it becomes more of a battle.
Current odds - 7/2
TRADING LEATHER may have some stamina doubts on breeding, and has taken a curious route to this race. Second behind the above at York, over 10.5f, then was used as a pacemaker (effectively) in the Irish 2000gns over 8f. That was a fast pace and only got out beaten late on by a true miler's speed. The 2nd in that race went on to frank the form at Royal Ascot, but the winner was also in that race and did not show his previous form. Trading Leather then drops down to listed class over 10f a and duly bolts up, beating one of today's favourite stable mates in the process. Money for the favourite would indicate that they know how much superior he is to the one TL beat? If this race is run at a true run pace his stamina doubts might surface, but is he does truly stay the trip he is a serious rival.
Current odds - 5/1
SUGAR BOY is probably the more straight forward to quantify his chances. Beaten into 2nd place by a stablemate of the favourite in a Group 3 race on his seasonal reappearance, and got a good rating. Then went to Sandown over 10f and won their Derby trial by a head. Not such a good rating, but skipped the peculiar nature of Epsom to come straight here. Therefore he has had a less testing journey but if it was in the hope of getting an easier option, it has failed? Stamina should not be a problem, only a question whether he is good enough. If this is a sub-standard year he may be, but I get the impression that is a hope rather a firm belief?
Current odds - 10/1
GALIEO ROCK I find the most interesting prospect here. This is a horse with abundant stamina in his pedigree, and to date, has not been able to exploit his strengths. He was 3rd behind the above at Sandown in April. Ran 3rd in the Derby when not (allowed to?) use his stamina to the full when the field was bunch up coming down the hill at Epsom. Despite that, he kept going to a very respectable 3rd place. If there was any in that race that the muddling pace did not suit it was him? Given that that there is a horse in here who will take them along at a decent pace, for once he may just get a chance to show his full potential, and to earn himself a favourite's chance in the St Leger over 14f. Certainly, if you take the tenuous form line through the 4th at Epsom, he has the beating of Sugar Boy. The flatter track, stronger pace from the outset, and his own stamina requirements, he has a great chance of being in the mix if it come down to grinding out a finish?
Current odds - 10/1
FESTIVE CHEER was surplus to requirements at Epsom, if the plan was to have him take the pace on early? With the way the race developed, unsettling Dawn Approach with a slow pace and bunching the field up to give all the Ballydoyle horses a chance, in particular Mars, the doubtful stayer, it did not work in this ones favour at all. On pedigree he has a great chance, but so far the reality shows he may not be quite up to this level? Nor can I see him being much use as a pacemaker, as the complete outsider who will run independently of all stable ties, will surely take them along at a brisk pace? So unless FC is in to slow it up when that one weakens i cannot see him being involved?
Current odds - 20/1
LITTLE WHITE CLOUD was 2nd to Leading Light over 10f, and got an okay rating. The winner went on to win a 16f race at Royal Ascot. Should have no problem stepping up in trip himself, and may bring further improvement. In that respect he is like Sugar Boy, if it is a sub-standard year he has less of a gulf to bridge on what he has done so far. Not ruled out completely, but I'm sure the stable will be overjoyed if he gets a place?
Current odds - 33/1
CAP O'RUSHES showed a fair level of form, including his latest placed run at Royal Ascot. However, not a a level that is required here?
Current odds - 66/1+
RALSTON ROAD is the one I expect to set the pace, much as he did at Royal Ascot in Leading Light's race over 16f. Headed at the 10f marker, but kept on and finished 8th. If he could keep it going over this shorter trip to the 10f marker, then he will set the race up nicely. I just hope he takes part to do that, as there is always some doubt with the gap between the two races being so short? He has won over this trip, but in much lower grade races
Current odds - 100/1+
Conclusion:
RULER OF THE WORLD is the one they will have to beat to win.
TRADING LEATHER is marginally ahead on my ratings, but they are all on the low side.
GALILEO ROCK appeals as the best each way value, as has most to gain from a true run race, and can clearly go with the pace of this grade.
Your choice?
Yes there are good races going on all over, but the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is over 16f, and I don't like speed ratings over those trips, and I'd rather wait for the Ascot horses come out and challenge for the good races still to come.
A quick reflection on the final card at Royal Ascot. Sadly the relatively fastest race was that of the ill-fated THOMAS CHIPPENDALE. In doing so, he also recorded a career best, but that is no consolation to all involved.
Those who finished behind him though, can be followed to uphold that form. Lkewise OPINION in the other 12f race, whch enabled him to get a most improved rating, and those in that race can also be followed.
Have a good day ...
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