This year's ECLIPSE is one for the purists. It is tight on ratings, meaning all can be given a chance. If all take part, then the 3yo generation's chances will be tested against that of their elders, albeit with only one runner. Above all, it is over 10f. Away from the top level, this would be a 'specialist's distance'. Not so much with the top grade, as their class can see them through even if they rate higher at 8f or 12f.
So, on to the numbers. Victor, get ready to trim those odds?
Sandown 3.50: 10f Group 1 Eclipse Stakes.
in current betting order ...
AL KAZEEM is a much improved horse this season, and deserved to be considered to be the most likely winner on recent form. All three wins have been at this distance, and the latest at Royal Ascot confirmed he is a real Group 1 performer. His trainer though, has put a doubt in peoples's mind as to whether he can pull out another big run, this being his 4th since the end of April, over C&D, and more importantly, the least gap between each one, to this one. There is no doubt that winning at Royal Ascot takes some doing because they have to be at their best to beat others trained to be at their best. However, as he beat over half of this field in his last race, they are in much the same boat?
One excuse for the poor performance of Ruler Of The World last weekend was that he had 3 quick races, and I think it could be the case here. With the ratings being so tight, only 4lbs separating 6 of the 7 rivals is hardly worth mentioning that he is 2lbs off my top rated, given that improving horses will gain more than that in no time at all. It remains to be seen if this is to be an improved run, or one step backwards?
Current odds a shade over 2/1
DECLARATION OF WAR was an impressive winner at Royal Ascot over 8f. It was won in the style of a horse that would be going to a much higher level this season. He also has had 3 races since mid April, neatly separated at monthly intervals .. until now? This is less than 3 weeks for his biggest test of all, so similar concerns to that of the above. The step up in trip should not be a problem, and his mile speed could help should this become too tactical. Again, on ratings, he comes out a couple of lbs below the above from that Ascot race, and the race itself was just a little weaker. However, both these horses will be suited by the longer up hill finish, if they are in a position to do produce a late burst of pace. The faster ground though, may not be in his favour. The first day card at Ascot was described only as 'good', and tends to be less harsh anyway.
Current odds 4/1
THE FUGUE was behind the favourite last time, on her first start since November. Clearly did not get the run of that race, trapped on the inside until it was too late. She is my joint top rated on bare ratings, and gets the same 3lbs gender allowance she had there. Basically it comes down to whether the Sandown hill and a relatively quick 2nd race(the 'bounce' factor) even themselves out and give her a very realistic chance of tuning the tables here.
Well last season she started with 3 quick races, at 10 and 16 day intervals, and improved each time. Indeed, the 4th run was on 20 days later and managed to be second on softer ground. Her best form appears to be over 12f on fast ground. That said, her last win was over Goodwood's extended 9f, which probably adds to the frustration of the last run with things in her favour and got no proper run. She has an excellent chance of making amends here, and I will be surprised if her stamina in the final furlong does not get put to good use? Every chance of going off shorter than her price at the moment.
Current odds 4/1
MARS will find a good race one day, I am not sure this is it. The only 3yo in the field, and also comes on the back of a troubled passage in his last race. Despite that, his 3rd behind Dawn Approach does give him joint top rated, and the 7lb age allowance would put him clear. However, as that rating came against horses of his own age, the rating could be seen as less value than that of a all age Group 1? Therefore this allowance is going to be needed just to keep on even terms. He too is having a run of 4 quick races, including today, all since his 2000gns run on May 4th. Followed that by the 12f Derby where the muddling pace and barging matches along the way, which did not help his cause. I opposed him that day because his pedigree indicated a lot more speed. The drop back to 8f last time has indeed brought out his best rating to date, despite being hampered again. That was a very quick turnaround for a top 3yo to handle. If any horse is to be troubled by too many races it is surely this one? Not to mention the senior opposition, the step back up to 10f, and the stiff uphill climb all adds up to a very big ask for a young horse? He will need all his sire's toughness here.
Current odds 9/2
MUKHADRAM is a horse you have to admire in the way he runs his races. Only just caught by the current favourite last time. This was clearly his best run to date, as his first at Group 1 level. He has come a long way since his 5th in the 9f Cambridgeshire h'cap last season. He is on only his 3rd run, and he is after one of the top Group 1 prizes of the season. Despite Hanagan's brilliance at racing from the front, and a course that has had some superb 10f front runners, like TACITUS in years past, I feel the combination of strong opposition needing a good pace and a stiff finish, will prove just too much.
Current odds 8/1
PASTORIUS is the German raider that has a few if's about his chances, but is the only one of the runners not to have raced at Royal Ascot. On his final run last season he finished 4th to the one and only FRANKEL. That rating, despite being well beaten, and who was wasn't*, puts him in here joint top rated. If you look at races that have involved runners that had been placed behind the GOAT, they have invariably increased his standing by beating everything else in is absence. However, two issues might restrict this being another one. Fast ground? Unsuccessful trip to Singapore last time? I cannot think the going would have been slow out there, but the wide draw on a tight track did him no favours. His run against Frankel was also on soft-ish ground. However, he showed a good turn of foot on his first run over the extended 10f at Longchamp in April, and has been given time to recover from his trip to the Far East. Peslier excels in these type of races and I think he will be in the shake up. just a pity there are not 8 runners?
Current odds 10/1
MBLISH is really only hopeful of a place on known form, and there is nothing to suggest he can turn around places with those he has already raced against.
Current odds 100/1
Conclusion: Take THE FUGUE and PASTORIUS against the field, but with everything in his favour THE FUGUE probably has the edge.
The answer to the question above* - CIRRUS DES AIGLES is the only horse push the mature FRANKEL in any race, and is the best antepost bet, with a run, in the King George at Ascot.
Have a good day ...
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