This is more a reflection on Thursday's card, and a look at today's first four races.
Starting with Thursday's review:
The opening race over a 13f trip was one up for my ratings, as my top two finished 1st and 2nd. Alas the top rated was the unlucky Havana Beat. I always think that once you have got past Royal Ascot the ratings from this season start to take over. Now, with a 3 week gap, we are also seeing how the ratings from that meeting show their true class. Both of these hoses finished in races where the winner produced a good rating.
I was amused at the comments after the second race that they thought that at least Jallota upheld the standard of War Command's race, because Sir John Hawkins didn't. Well much as I like the Channel 4 presenters, on this occasion they have got it wrong. Sir J H went into the race top rated but with no confidence on my part because the Ascot race was relatively slowly run, and consequently failed to match the grade. He was however, the only runner to have run in that high level. The trouble for me in a slowly run race you do not know for sure what the bottom level is. Whereas Jallota had a better rating behind Astaire, and at 16/1 represented good value at 16/1. I did say that Berkshire's Ascot race was a real blot for trusting it to work out because of the slow time, and Master Carpenter could only finish 8th. I had no rating for the winner, but all three of the placed horse ran above their previous level, if not quite matching the grade here.
Universal ran a grand race, but again was just short of improving his mark with me, but not doubt will be raised. As he does not run in h'caps this is of little consequence.
Maputo was the star of the day. taking a longstanding course record and leaving the other in his wake. This race will produce winners from those who managed to keep going at the end of a stern test.
The 2yo race matched the grade, but it remains to be seen when she is stepped up in class that she can improve on this. But it is a sound base.
Montiridge was understandably slow in a small field, but Last Sovereign gained a couple of lbs.
Todays Friday card is more of the same.
Newm 1.40 is a tight h'cap, but I just give the edge to JUBILANTE, although the top weight SORELLA BELLA may be the value each way?
Newm 2.10 gives us a chance to see RIZEENA strut her stuff. However, at just over evens she is not good value for a bet. She ran over 5f last time, whereas this is not only 6f, but the final furlong is particularly hard.
I still expect her to win with the proviso, if she settles? But it would be nice to see her finish with her ears pricked again, and showing she truly does stay the 6f. The only dangers on ratings are those that finished behind her at Ascot.
Newm 2.40 similar comments apply, but for different reasons. If SKY LANTERN settles, even if she is out in front, she wins. Simple as that really. GIOFRA is the one that would most benefit from a 2f sprint, where ELUSIVE KATE would prefer a proper test. What PURR ALONG does may decide it?
Newm 3.15 is the last one of this review, as the others have little value in analysing. This is also a tight h'cap, but the narrow EW value goes to RIVELLINO. Rated just ahead of the likely favourite, MOVIESTA. Mind if Samantha Bell can do justice to her full claim, MARY'S DAUGHTER is not out of it, at an even bigger price?
Have a good day ...
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