Newmarket JULY CUP 2013

For once I have little problem with reading this race.

Newm 3.50: 6f Group 1 July Cup

Starting with the winner;

SHEA SHEA - Forget all the stuff about this horse being better at 5f. It may be true, but he is also very very good at 6f. This is a stiff 6f. True, but his style of running is not to blast off and do it from the front is it? No he comes late and fast. Yes, there are several others that do the same, but none have got the rating I gave this horse on his last run. Therefore, it is all about the pace of the race?
Two predominantly lead horses, and Shea is drawn between the two, in stall 8. On his right, in 4, is LEADING LIGHT. In stall 12 is HAMZA. The former has the better rating, and in Group1 company, and is probably the best to tuck in behind.  Because they come down the centre of the track, there should be few problems in finding room unless they all converge towards the stand's side? Top class jockey who knows how to ride a waiting race just adds to my belief in the final outcome. He should be a 7/4 shot.
Current odds 4/1?

Of the challengers, SOLE POWER is only 3 stalls away in 11, next to the other pace horse Hamza. Now the danger here is if they do split into two distinct group and Shea's jockey decides to stay close to his narrow Ascot conquerer, they both could be left with a longer run for home, as I expect Hamza to fade first? Shea has on his left, towards the far rail  ZANETTO to tuck in behind initially, but then he will be exposed, and three horses away from the pace horse.
Whereas, on his right, HAVELOCK,  a fellow Aussie, will try and drop in. Next is GALE FORCE TEN who may not be able to force the early pace but will want to be on hand to use his extra stamina in the final furlong. so not a bad one to tuck behind. Beyond those two, KRYPTON FACTOR is in an ideal spot to get the lead from Leading Light. Likewise SHAMEXPRESS, who ran no sort of race at Ascot, but could find this more to his liking? He is the most likely to take it up from Leading Light, which will, in turn, suit SOCIETY ROCK and SLADE POWER, although the latter doe not appear quite up to this level on my figures.

So there you have it. Easier to go and join Sole Power, but the race could be over on the stand's side, and if connections read this the same way as I do, they will leave Sole Power on his own to make a late burst too late to catch the stand side group, or he has to go too early, and loses out like he did at Haydock. Not only that, Sole Power is not as good over 6f, whereas Society Rock is.

Result: First No6 - SHEA SHEA.
Second No3 - KRYPTON FACTOR
Third No5 - SHAMEXPRESS

Conclusion: Yes that looks like a shut out for home based horses, but they all have some issues.
Shea Shea good value 4/1, Krypton Factor value EW at 14/1 -16/1, Shamexpress less so at 20/1 as he still has a bit to prove?

Disappointing day yesterday, but three races produce excellent times.
In the first INDIGNANT won well and set a good time.
RIZEENA appeared not to like the going, yet despite this was only a couple of lbs off her Ascot rating, and stayed the 6f well enough. .The winner though, LUCKY KRISTALE is the real deal. Clocking the second fastest time on the day and posting the best 2yo rating this season. One to follow.
SKY LANTERN was robbed. If a jockey can use the excuse that having the whip in his correct hand is the best way to keep a horse straight .. when for over it furlong it patently was not working!!!! Then it sets a very bad precedent for future races.
HEAVEN'S GUEST clocked the best time of the day, and all horses involved should be watched in future races.

Have a good day ...