Curr 6.15: 12f Group 1 Irish Oaks
It has to be said that there are negatives about every runner. To complicate matters further, Aiden O'Brien has three of the 8 runners, and there is a French challenger that is hard to assess.
So, in betting order;
TALENT was an impressive winner of the Epsom Oaks, and came through the field like a proper staying filly. The downside is, that was the second slowest time on the card. She came into the race with a modest OR of 96 and because of the time, did not improve on it in my book. It was also on good to soft going. Everything about today's race is going to make it a tougher challenge?
That said, she is the only Group 1 winner in the race and has the highest OR in the race, albeit a low one for a Classic winner. She has had plenty of time to recover from that race, and as long as she has not got any fitness issues she should run her race. Unfortunately, those that ran behind her that have had a run, have done nothing to advertise the form, suggesting, as the time does, it was a poor race. So the doubt remains?
Current price around 5/2
RIPOSTE is a Group 2 winner at Ascot's big meeting and ran to a rating a stone above the current favourite. In the process beat one of her rivals today. That was on fast ground and a similar course type to the Curragh. It was a big step up from being beaten in a Class 5 maiden previously, and has had a decent time to recover. Will very likely take over as favourite before the off?
However, the horse she beat looks to be the O'Brien first choice on jockey bookings? She was ridden as though she might not get the trip. She was stepping up from the 8f Irish 1000gns, and as a consequence, she pulled very hard. So it is not a formality that Riposte will confirm that form?
Current price around 5/2 - 11/4
ALIVE ALIVE OH also beat one of the O'Brien runners over 10f at Naas in a Listed race. Never raced on fast ground, or been tried over 12f, although bred to appreciate the trip. She won by 6 lengths, but her time rating suggests she has to improve quite a bit more to take a hand. The form of that race has been upheld, so not a forlorn hope.
Current price 6/1
CHICQUINTA is the French challenger who finished 2nd to a very impressive winner of the 10.5f French Derby, which naturally is a Group 1 race. Trained by the very astute Mons Royer-Dupre, who can spot a good opportunity, and has the equally astute J. Murtagh on board.
This filly has not raced on fast ground before, but did improve for the 'good' last time. Bred for the job, and if she is not troubled by the travelling could be the one they all have to beat. Well backed to do so.
Current price around 6/1, and likely to get shorter.
VENUS DE MILO is the one I find the most interesting of the three O'Brien runners. She has had only two runs to date, and won both. The latest was over 10f on fast ground where the short priced favourite was unplaced. The time does her rating no favours, but is bred to improve for the step up in trip. She has certainly finished off her races in that manner, and the form of that was helped when the 3rd went on to win next time.
She could be an O'Brien dark horse, and should not be dismissed lightly.
Current price around 15/2
JUST PRETENDING is surprisingly big price for a horse who might just turn the form around with the second favourite RIPOSTE. If she relaxes and can run her race she will have every chance. She appeared to stay that day, although her rival might also improve again. Joseph O'B takes the ride again, and with a likely pacemaker in the race, it should be run at a true speed to allow her to come through late on?
Current price around 12/1
SCINTILLULA is the likely early pace-setter, if she follows what she did last time in a Listed race over 8f.
However, trainer J Bolger may have other ideas now she is stepping up in trip, so it might be in this one's favour to have a falsely run race?
Current price 20/1
MAGICAL DREAM may be the one to take it on if the above does not, thus ensuring a true run race for the other two stable runners.
Current price around 33/1
Conclusion: I could be wrong again for the 3rd blog in a row if I dismiss TALENT out of hand. However, her win looks suspect on many levels, and take away much of what the visual impression created. She has to improve a lot to beat these in a true run race, and on balance, I think it may be just beyond her?
I find it hard to get away from the French runner who beat a strong Group 1 field, bar the impressive winner, who is likely as not head for the 'Arc at Longchamp. I cannot see anything of that class in this field?
1 - CHICQUITA
2 - RIPOSTE
3 - JUST PRETENDING
2 - RIPOSTE
3 - JUST PRETENDING
Have a good day ...
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