GOODWOOD Wednesday 2013

Now I am really getting racked off with the Weather, and its forecasters.
I swear when  I checked the RP site just before publishing yesterday, their course reporter was saying 'blues skies and sunny' ?
Clearly he was not at the course, because , according to C4 TV, they said it began raining at 7.0am, and was still doing so at 2.0pm!

At least today it will not make much difference.

Goodwood 3.05: 8f Group 1 SUSSEX Stakes.

Now if there were 8 runners there could have been a couple of interesting each ways. With only 7 runners, unlikely.

LEITIR MOR would have been one such bet, as this course should enable him to stay out in front a lot longer and may be just hang on to 3rd place at the death? His job is to set it up for the favourite by setting a steady but very quick pace. The O'Brien team have REPLY in there to try and upset that plan, but despite the latter being a very useful horse in his own right, in  a straight dual between the two, on this course I would take LEITIR MOR every time.

TRADE STORM is the other one I think will be raced for a place, and 3rd again, the most likely target. He will just sit out the back, hopefully relaxed, doing nothing except not getting too far adrift, and then come with a late run to pick up the pieces from those that go with the pace and have nothing left.

DECLARATION OF WAR is the O'Brien hopeful, and it will depend on how much he has to put in too early in the straight will decide whether he is 2nd or 4th. He has the best part of 10lbs to find on the favourite, but as he has a light campaign until this season, he could still be improving. Alas, his run in the Eclipse has probably damaged his chance here, as well as showing that he improved nought for the step up to 10f.?

TORANADO ran a great race last time and missed out on being the first horse to beat the favourite, after arguably being the biggest sufferer in the barging match they both got caught up in. At least in that race he did show he can be raced differently, and is a worthy 2nd favourite. Delaying his challenge to the very last moment could be the way to go here? Hughes is confident enough to do that, even if he is 4 lengths down at the furlong pole. Whether he can win or not, is another question?

DAWN APPROACH is well clear on ratings. He has a small field where his pacemaker can dictate things, and the ease in the going is not a problem either. Given his preparation going into the last race, he should be more than ready to repel all comers this time. The only possible chink is the course. He is a horse that can go a fast pace for a long way (not 12f though?), and this course does enable the speedier types to get into the race as they start to descend. I guess Leitir Mor will be trying to soften them up on the climb to the top of the hill and keep it going for as long as he can downhill.

Fascinating race to see how it unfolds, butt the winner should be: DAWN APPROACH.
I say 'should be',because he is the best horse in the race. But if Declaration Of War takes him on coming down the hill, it could just open it up for a shock winner, like Trade Storm to get the better of Toranado?
I am still of the opinion that two of the three main challengers will fade, and Leitir Mor will hang on for 3rd.

Have a good day ...