Tuesday 30 July 2013

GOODWOOD - Tuesday 2013

Well, having been put away by the weather forecast on King George day at Ascot, I am not making that mistake today. In fact, at the last week end I was put away twice, given I was quoting the trainer who said Cirrus Des Aigles was back to his best, only to hear her backtracking on live tv to say he was 'nearly' back to his best. That, and the miraculously dry day they had up to race time, when the previous evening the weather map clearly showed that by 8.0am the heavy rain had already spread up to the M4, you could say I was less than hopeful. The only thing I can say is the winner was something special, but I shall look forward to the rematch with Trading Leather should they both go for the Juddmonte over 10f. A fully fit Cirrus over 10f, and with the rain having broken through at last, I think we may see a different story?

However, with just the possibility of a thunderstorm, I will not start of Glorious Goodwood with too much enthusiasm until I get the latest going forecast. If it is sunny and warm, then the course will dry out and recent fast ground form should hold up quite well. However, Goodwood's undulations do mean it is not an exact science on who will perform well on the track?

Goodwood 1.55: 10f  Class 2 Handicap;

FAST OR FREE is yet to run this season. Probably because of the prevailing fast ground. At the time of writing, it does not look like he will get is favoured conditions, so I am quite happy to pass him over at relatively short odds for an open handicap.
Current odds around 6/1

BLUE SURF has got a squeak on my ratings which he got on the downhill Epsom track. Not enough in hand to say he is a good thing, but should be bang there at the finish.
Current odds around 7/1

WHISPERING WARRIOR is in good form, but another who may have preferred it softer. It is also stepping into better company here, and with his h'cap mark increasing, he will have to show some improvement to win this.
Current odds around 9/1

CLON BRULEE is another I would give a chance to if he can get a good position from his middle draw. The course configuration means the not only have right hand turns to make, but also they switch rails along the way. With the fast downhill as they turn into the straight you need a lot of luck in running. However he has won at Ripon and Redcar, both tracks known for their undulations, and his last run was a decent effort too. The going is less of a concern as well.
Current odds around 9/1

NABUCCO has been lightly raced coming into this race, so there may be some hidden improvement. He won over the trip on the July course at Newmarket, which also has a downhill section. Certainly not one to be ruled out.
 the 9/1 mark, but may well get shorter because of stable form.

Of the remainder;

FENNELL BAY, although high in the h'cap, his stable are in flying form. he has a difficult draw to overcome, and may lose his race trying to get to the front and do his customary lead?
Current odds around 12/1

ANGEL GABRIAL is capable of running a big race if things go his way.
Current odds around 18/1
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Goodwood 2.30: 5f Group 3 Molecomb Stakes 2yo

AMBIANCE has marginally the best rating, and is of an interesting price.
Current price 6/1

SLEEPER KING did not perform up to the level expected at Ascot, this track, with the emphasis on speed may suit him better.
Current odds 12/1

REROUTE was only having her second start behind Rizeena, so improvement may come to turn the tables on Ambience.
Current odds 9/2
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Goodwood 3.05: 7f  Group 3 Lennox Stakes

ALJAMAAHEER is a deserved favourite as he consistently bangs out a similar high rating in victory or defeat. It is hard to get away from the 3yo's in this race too, and his rating is better than any other has produced to date. May be vulnerable if something really gets their act together though?

PROFESSOR looks the 2nd string for the Hannon yard, but I think he is progressing nicely.
Current odds 10/1

Of the older horses, only Caspar Netscher who is classy, but hasn't had a run this season, and Pastoral Player, who likes this course, but is getting older, look to have any chance of stopping it being a 123 for the younger brigade? They include the 2000gns 7th, Garswood, who is not even close to being favourite here, over what might be his best trip?

Time against me here, so have a good day ... ..
p.s Course report a fine sunny day





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