Review of the SUSSEX stakes

I am not inspired by the Thursday card at Goodwood. The handicaps are interesting but not especially so. The 2yo Group 2 race is good, but more about the future after the race, and you should know my views on the longer distance races?

So I will take this opportunity to review how the Sussex Stakes was run, and would different tactics by Dawn Approach as the race unfolded made any difference?

You probably know that I am of the opinion that Dawn Approach has no finishing speed as such. Instead he relies on maintaining a fast pace, with help, and hope that that takes the finishing speed of those with a turn of foot.

So the first complication happened at the start, when Leitir Mor reared as the gates opened. He then raced up while the gap was still there against the rail, and his momentum shot 5 or 6 lengths beyond his stable mate. This in turn allowed Reply, the O'Brien 'pacemaker' to slot in behind Leitir, pushing Dawn Approach further back from where he ideally wanted to be.

So jockey decision: Does he try and get past Reply, or sit back at the head of the main bunch?
I think he made the right choice here, as there was no point in battling with Reply so far out?

The next decision point came, as expected, as they turned into the straight. Kevin Manning decided to push on from that point, despite the fact that Leitir Mor was still going strongly.

This is another choice that might be questioned, because he had to really roust him to get ahead of the pacemaker. Would it have helped if he delayed that push until another half furlong, and so have more in reserve for when  Toronado came speeding by? It is all conjecture as to whether that might have been the case. At the time he had Declaration Of War about to deliver his challenge, and there was a very real danger of him being boxed in behind Leitir Mor, as Reply had already started to drop away? So, even though it was a long way out, I believe it was his only real choice. He knew that DOW would very likely stay on once he got to the front, so he used his only asset, Dawn's prolonged ability to run at a fast pace. Indeed, he beat off the older horse quite comfortably. Another thing, if he delayed his move any longer the 'finishers' could have crept closer at that slower pace? He did open up about a 4 length gap after all. It really comes down to my initial statement,
If his early past pace does not weaken his rivals sufficiently, then he has now answer to horses who do have a turn of foot.

I am sure the Bulger camp will look at it and think, on a stiffer track, and the pacemaker getting off on terms, and may be a tad more balanced pace where it gradually builds up speed, so when Dawn pulls out at the 2 furlong marker he will have the opposition at full stretch and they will not get to him?

It was not hard to see that Jim Bulger was less than comfortable in the interview afterwards? I am not sure that they can be that confident that the tables will be turned next time? May be the smiling interviewer gleefully hoping for details of a rematch did not help. I can remember him catch a stern glance from the normally imperturbable Aiden O'B, when discussing Ruler Of The World's defeat. They were at the point of talking of future targets when the same Mr Pasad threw a curve ball at him....' ..and avoiding Trading Leather?'
Oooh, if looks could kill ...

My only saving grace from the race was that Leitir Mor did finish in front of Reply, despite his extra exertions at the start.