Tricky day ahead. Going changes by the hour I should not wonder?
I have to say, Gold Cup day has always been my least favourite day of the five, and that goes back to when the Saturday card was described a 'Ascot Heath' day. Peasants day to you and me. The clothing rules got relaxed, and the racing was always competitive. Of course, the fact that the fashionista's take over even more air time on this day is what really kills it. Plus that speed figures rarely matter much in these long distance stakes races, so it has a different strategy, which I am less comfortable with.
So with that, and the weather, I am not very motivated to do a in depth look at any of today's races. So be forewarned!
Before I do flick through the card, time to reflect on yesterday's races.
Pride of place goes to the feature race, and the winner, Al Kazeen, who recorded the clear fastest time of the day. He really did improve on his previous rating, largely thanks to the runner up, Mukhadram. He took them along at a pace that gave him a chance of winning, and very nearly pulled it off. Unlike Camelot's pacemaker, Windsor Castle, who did not make it to the front. He would have gone faster in an attempt to draw the finish out of the field. It highlighted what I said yesterday about Camelot. He does not have a turn of foot to finish races, but he can cruise at a very high speed. The discussion afterwards as to whether he is 'no longer any good' or was 'never that good' missed this point completely? He will still win races, indeed Group 1 races, when things go right, and his pacemaker can dominate from the start. The O'Brien team will have to avoid the cream at this level though. I also think that it is this horse's pace that he sees as "The best I have ever had". My guess is that that it could stick with the likes of So You Think on the training gallops without any great effort? Let that take nothing away from the first two home here, They are top drawer, at 10f at least. If Mukhadram can be relaxed in a race, he too could get the extra 2f of the 'Arc or King George.
Despite the above, the one for the future is Rizeena. To catch up with the flying American filly was brilliant enough, but to prick her ears on the line .. Well frankly, that is just taking the piss? She matched the high Grade 2 standard, and will clearly be the best 2yo filly around. I put her right up there with Acclamation, who did a similar thing back when she came to this meeting as a 2yo.
The quartet in the last race should also be followed up, as they put daylight between themselves and a very good field.
Alas, that is my enthusiasm burnt out ...
Ascot 2.30: 5f Group 2 Norfolk Stakes 2yo
Latest price 2/1 .. if you are quick
Only one horse has a rating of any merit.
COACH HOUSE - He won a Listed race at the Curragh last time on good to firm, having won on soft previously. Both were small field events, so this larger field, and the occasion could get to her, but he looks solid enough if he gets off to a level break. To record a good time in a small field usually indicates he has solid race pace, and he saw it out very well. He has over a stone on these on my ratings, which can only be based on known form.
When I say that IFWECAN has the next best rating, you get the picture? He is a 20/1+ shot. The unknown improver will be the only danger.
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Ascot 3.05: 12f Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes 3yo Fillies
Tricky race, as most are stepping up from 10f, which can be a positive or a negative?
ALIVE ALIVE O is my top rated, who beat her rivals silly with a smart turn of foot in a Listed race at Navan. Every likelyhood of a staying the extra two furlongs. That was on yielding, having previously won on heavy. Will appreciate any ease in the going.
Latest price 2/1
JUST PRETENDING has a bigger step up in trip, having finished 3rd in the Irish 1000gns. That form over a mile is very solid, with Gale Force Ten winning yesterday. More commendable if she is a true stayer. Today will be the acid test. Ease in the going will not bother her, so only the trip will keep her out of the frame.
Latest price 15/2
THE LARK represents proper 12f credentials having finished behind Talent in the Oaks, 12f Epsom. Ground on the easy side that day, and made the step up from 10f on faster. The Oaks was a muddling one from a time point of view, but I felt the winner was a real stayer. So just because The Lark ran well in it, her rating is still well below Group standard, so she will need to improve again, and I suspect that any rain would help?
Non-runner
WINSILI has an equal rating to the above, from her Listed win over 10f, when beating the above comfortably. Making the gradual steps up in trip, whchi breeding suggests she will improve for, but also indicates that the faster ground she has race on so far, would be her preferred surface?
Latest price 7/2 ...well backed
HOLLOWINA is only just behind these on ratings going into the race, but I suspect that she is less likely to improve to the level of Group 2 standard.
Latest price 50/1+
ELIK will have his supporters, but from the same mark as the above, has to improve an awful lot to get into it. Shrewd trainer/jockey combo notwithstanding, I think it may be a step too far this time around. Well bred filly who is going the right way, but so far she has only shown she is good, and she will need to be very good to win this. She may well have that 'unknown' factor, we will see?
Latest price 9/1
The rest will struggle on known form.
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Ascot 3.45: 20f Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup ....(yawn)
No, it is a good race, lots of runners, some very good ...
SADDLER'S ROCK I like because he has been here before, beaten twice, but now as a 5yo, aimed and trained specifically for this race .. It just could be 3rd time lucky?
Latest price 8/1+
EARL OF TINSDAL will need the rain, lots of it but has enough class to be a sound ew chance - Thanks to Ben Linfoot of the Sporting Life for highlighting this one!
Latest price 16/1 ... if it has rained?
RITE OF PASSAGE is getting older, and more rivals to beat this time around.
Latest price 8/1+
TIMES UP is probably better at shorter.
Latest price 12/1
SIMENON did not fare so well when upped in grade..
Latest price 7/1
The rest you have to see if they really have the stamina for this test. An upset is on the cards if one does?
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Aaargh, two races to go, let's hope they are nice and easy
Ascot 4.25: 8f Class 2 Britannia h'cap 3yo ......( Just great, a 30 runner, mid-season 3yo h'cap! Brilliant)
At this time of year horses of this age are really starting to develop into their full potential, and big gains in ratings follow ... Meaning, the ones they have are just history? I should have ratings for these. I really should?
Ooops. Blank page ...
CAPE PERON - The current favourite. Ah yes, over a stone behind his Official Rating. Next!
Latest price 7/1 ... and easing?
MAPUTO - I like this one. Oh, only a few lbs below its OR, and from a lower grade. Next!
Latest price 8/1
LLAREGYB - Oooo, only slightly behind its OR, from a C5 h'cap. Next!
Latest price 14/1
SECRET TALENT - Not so secret. Hughie Morrison, you clever boy ... has a chance! Albeit, needs more.
Latest price 16/1
SO BELOVED - Lbs to find on OR, up a grade too. Mr Doyle, work a miracle if you can? Next!
Latest price 16/1
QUEENSBERRY RULES - Near, but not quite. Moore/Haggas combo though?
Latest price 14/1+
MARKET TOWN - Similar to above, with both trainer and jockey booking?
Latest price 16/1+
HAAFAGUINEA - Shame, a bit to find, but will do better than most if it rains?
Non runner
HOMAGE - A plus!, A plus! ... I'm so excited, I just can't wait, err whatever the next line is, I'm so excited. A good claimer on board too. From a Class 3, but it is Noseda, so that means bugger all! Clever boy, him??
Latest price 20/1 ... but being nibbled?
ROCA TUMU - You're having a laugh? A stone to find on OR. Oh, it Irish trained, that's okay then?
Latest price 25/1+
SEA SHANTY - Not quite got the hang of handicapping Mr Hannon, have you? We know he is better than he has shown, but he keeps winning and goes up in the weights all the time. Find a stone and you're in with a shout.
Latest price 20/1 .. and drifting
NEWSTEAD ABBEY and SHEBIBI are set to battle it out again, and both are just short of their OR. Given that everything else is hovering around their OR's, they just need to keep improving?
Latest prices 20/1+ & 25/1+?
I'm bored now. We are up to the 25/1+ shots so if you want a bigger price winner, tough!
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Buggar! When said two races to go I was wrong ... Let's pretend that the 5.35 doesn't count, as it is for 3yo's over 12f, and is twice the guesswork of the above. Oh just the one line then
Ascot 5.35: 12f Class 2 King George V h'cap 3yo
RED RUNWAY to give the Doyle laddie the top jockey status going into day 4. Not too mention a big price winner here?
Latest price 20/1+
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Ascot 5.00 : 10f Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes 3yo
CHOPIN - He did not do too badly in the muddling mix up known as the 2013 Derby, and as such, this course and pace may suit better?
Latest price 11/2
REMOTE is stepping out of h'cap company, and has a bit to find.
Latest price 5/2
INDIAN CHIEF comes from the York Classic trial, a Group 2 which produced a sound platform for at least two to go on and perform well. This will be the 3rd. Clearly kept back for this, and is a worthy favourite, yet he is not .... at the moment. Watch this space!
Latest price 11/2 and drifting .. Are they mad, or just waiting/
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Well I hope you enjoy the racing as much as I have writing this blog ... On second thoughts, no, go on ...
Have a good day ...
p.s. I will update on the weather/going status around midday, if you care to scroll down this far on a second visit?
No change in the I am just adding the latest prices.
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