Tuesday 27 July 2010

Goodwood 2.45

I am sticking with the 2yo race today, although only 7 runners does take the EW value out?

2.45 GOODWOOD

107 G2 KING TORUS
103 G2 CHILWORTH LAD
81 C2 CROWN PROSECUTOR
76 C4 SURREY STAR

Conclusion: If the odds reflected the above then it might easy to conclude that the top two have it between them? However, I was amazed to see Crown Prosecutor is favourite on Betfair, and even more chuffed to get 12.5 on Chilworth Lad!
The reason is simple. The top two have both run in Group 2's. King Torus had a gutsy win over 7f at Newmarket. This is a sharper track. He now carries a 3lb penalty. Chilworth Lad has been racing over 5f and 6f, and his rating comes over the latter at the Curragh, a stiffish track. He got hampered at a crucial time, and only stayed on thereafter, but only beaten 2 lengths. Add in that the raw speed rating is 11pts faster than King Torus(although top in that category goes to the Hannon '2nd' string, Major Art), you can see why 'chuffed' hardly describes my delight at the odds ... Mind, with my biorythmns on the decline I shall no do doubt be sticking an 'F' in the Hannon horse's name if it is a repeat of yesterday!

1 comment:

  1. morning gerry ,excellent blog detailed as allways i will only be having one bet today ,and im glad you mentionend it , rip van winkle is my big bet today. i only concentrate on the group races, and with £180.000 on offer ,i expect ryan to come out on top for the crafty a obrian.gl for today with chilworth lad and i look forward to your next blog ttfn colin

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