2.40 Ascot:
96 Group 3 6f MARGOT DID
91 Group 2 6f SORAAYA
84 Class 2 6f CATFISH
83 Group 2 5f CATALINA'S DIAMOND
The top two have similar, but separate ratings, behind Memory. Unfortunately I am not swayed by the visually impressive Memory, as both victories were recorded as having the slowest time figure of all at both Newmarket and Ascot. Class difference between the two race is virtually nil, as a few ran in both, the collateral form would give the edge to Margot Did. That race also had the higher of the two speed figures, hence the higher final rating.
However, as unlikely as it may seem, Catalina's Diamond would have an outstanding EW chance if you can ignore the Nottingham race last time? Despite finishing a 6 lengths,and only 6th behind Maqaasid, the speed figure puts it only 1 point behind Margot Did's figure. Yes, it was over 5f, but she stayed on. The 6f Nottingham race is more difficult to explain away. She did make the running, and the time was quite good on the day, but it was only Class 5. It may be she is simply not up to this level, but with the odds difference of 75/1 against 5/2 I think a small EW is in order.
Catfish does have a winning rating, and her speed figure is slightly better than Soraaya's ... But, at Class 2 level.
On pure speed figures, Shoshoni Wind is well clear, but from a modest Class 5.
The rest are very average, and although not having a rating for Queen of Spain, form lines through Memory and Meow suggests this will be a wasted journey?
Anything is open to improvement, but from what they have shown so far I think my ratings will stand up quite well.
3.15 Ascot:
(Wght adj)
116 Class 2 8f KING OF WINDSOR
113 Class 2 8f HIGHLAND KNIGHT
102 Class 3 8f GINGER JACK
102 Class 4 8f ZAKILY
101 Class 5 8f SPA'S DANCER
The top two are both rated on their run behind Sea Lord, and that is solid form. Ginger Jack is improving but is up in grade, the other two even more so.
Spa's Dancer is 5lbs clear of the next pair, Side Glance and Mass Rally (class 2 and 3 respectively), and they have the class to be in there fighting for a place.
4.25 Ascot:
121 Group 2 HARBINGER
120 Group 1 WORKFORCE
I repeat what I said the other day. If Stoute did not think Workforce was not something special I cannot believe they would risk his enormous potential value at stud racing against a horse they know is very good? Even now, if there was a hint of something being amiss in the stable they would pull him out. Harbinger carries the hopes of many, and they get to be in the parade ring on their big day, so they are not going to mind too much if they finish second. Of course they are hoping for a win, but it will not be the end of their world.
I said after Workforce won the Derby I could only rate him at 120, but he has the potential to go well into the mid 130's. Comparing with Racing Post, you need to add 14 to mine, i.e. 134 (same for Harbinger), so when I say the mid 130's the comparison with Sea The Stars becomes that much closer at 148+??
Workforce to win in the style of a great horse, Harbinger should run his race if Confront does his job well.
Well that is the blog. Have a good day,
Gerry
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