Goodwood 4.00

I am choosing races carefully, so this 2yo race is it. By this time of year 2yo's are starting to beat my race grades regularly, which gives me a better idea of their ability. Others get close, particularly in the higher grades, which is okay. Then you get the ones who get no where near the grade, whether in victory or defeat, and you cannot be sure if it is the the grade -i.e. the 'class' - that has left them short, or just the way the race was run?

That is the challenge!

In my order of ratings:

4.00 GOODWOOD:

99 G1 STONE OF FOLCA - This course will suit better, should win.

96 G1 ZEBEDEE - Behind above. win nto rates 91. Placepot banker.

93 LST PRIMO LADY- Sound win at York, well beaten at this level since.

86 C2 BOLD BIDDER - Ran a blinder behind Temple Meads. Course will suit.

85 C2 SCARLET ROCKS - Course will suit, beaten at higher level.

84 C3 MAYSON - York maiden second, did not improve when winning.

Others to note:

85 G2 SERENA'S PRIDE - Rating from Ascot, well beaten then and since.

79 C4 CHOOSE WISELY - Excellent winning time, probably improved in France?

71 C5 AVONMORE STAR - Course winner, better than rating.

One to query?:

73 C4 LORD OF THE STARS - Got high praise in good class races but has yet to record a decent time figure??

72 C2 Again, looked good, time slow.

Conclusion: I can see no reason why the form of the top two will be reversed. This course will suit Stone Of Folca much better, and Jimmy Quinn is the right sort of jockey get him there close home?

Zebedee should be the biggest danger, but did not improve on his rating next time at the lower grade.

Of the rest, I think this race will come a bit too soon for Bold Bidder after his heroic York effort.

I would have given a squeak to Choose Wisely, but defeat at Listed level probably means he is not up to this grade.

Avonmore Star however has the second best 'speed figure' and is much better than the handicap rating. Course winner gives him a sound EW chance.

Have a good day, Gerry