6.50 Longchamp:
(in current betting order)
TREASURE BEACH:
Deservedly took the Irish Derby and will once again be a strong contender. However, this in not going to be a stamina test like the Curragh was. Lomgchamp is pretty flat, and after the 'false' straight, the run-in is relatively short. This will favour those with speed as much as stamina. The way I see this race being run he will have to be very handy on the final turn and make a sustained run for home. Certainly not beyond him.
RELIABLE MAN:
Beat a big field in the French Derby by being in the right place at the right time. That was over 10.5f, and the extra distance will be in his favour. The form of that race may be flattering, given the joint favourite, Baraan, ran a blinder to finish 3rd from where he came from. Whereas the other joint fav, Roderick O'Connor ran no sort of race. Tin Horse, the French 2000gns winner ran okay to finish 5th but probably did not stay the trip. But the fact he was a nose behind the Gosden trained Columbian can hardly be considered top Classic form? So there are doubts over this one, but he did win. His style of racing is not dissimilar to Treasure Beach and it would be no surprise to me that very little separates these two, wherever they finish.
SEVILLE:
I believe this is the one the O'Brien team would like to win with, given his future stallion prospects. However, his weakness does seem to be the distinct lack of finishing speed. My guess is he will be ridden in a similar manner to So You Think(see Pretty Polly blog) and try and take it on from a long way out, gradually building up the pace, as well as a lead, to finish strongly enough to see off his rivals. It is a trick that has worked before and it is his best chance to win.
BUBBLE CHIC:
Runner up to Reliable Man last time, and not certain to stay the extra 1.5f. His come from behind style will help, and being reunited with Pasquier his jockey today is another plus. The key to this one's success is the timing of his run. The last two times he has taken it up 1.5f out, only to get run out of it close home. Given that it was non other than Pour Moi who beat him the time before(prior to that one's Epsom success) shows he is no mean performer. The question is, will he be able to hang on to Seville and still deliver his kick closer to home?
MEANDRE:
Progressing nicely, but not at the top level. The horses he beat do not flatter the form of his wins. Valiyr did go on and win a Listed race, but then failed in a Group 3. So despite it being trained by Andre Fabre, he looks up against it.
MARKSMANSHIP:
This horse should not be underrated. If there had been 8 runners he would be a good EW in my opinion. He won well first time out, but disappointed at Ascot behind Pisco Sour. That was only his second run and the occasion probably got to him. He was staying on despite that, so the 12f here may well suit if he settles better. He has an in form Ryan Moore to help him and he has every chance of showing his true worth.
KREEM:
Another Fabre horse who is progressing nicely just below top level. Given he won a Group 3 last time out, beating the runner up to Meandre by much further, I would say he has every chance of finishing in front of his stable companion with young Barzalona on board, despite the odds saying otherwise?
Conclusion: Tricky ... but I'll stick with the horse with the best finish ... BUBBLE CHIC.
Full of 'ifs,buts, and maybe's' but if the race goes as I suggest; Seville will be in front when they enter the 'false' straight, Then I think Reliable Man and Treasure Beach will be next, not allowing him to get away. Ryan Moore will have Marksmanship handy too. In the next group I hope Bubble Chic will be still going well enough to close on the front group as they turn for home. As the two stamina horses pass the fading Seville, so too will Marksmanship pass them with a likely winning run ... but if Pasquier can delay his burst until inside the final furlong then it should be good enough to catch the Ballydoyle outsider close home ... but this is a French race, so who knows??
1, BUBBLE CHIC
0.5l
2, MARKSMANSHIP
1.5l
3, TREASURE BEACH
.25l
4, RELIABLE MAN
2l
5, KREEM
... not rising to the top ... sorry, it just had to be said?
Have a good day,
Gerry
p.s. Sorry no blogs for the July fest .... still catching up with ratings.
Next blog - Irish Oaks
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