REWILDING ... RIP
Goodwood, always fun, always tricky, even in a 4 runner race?
Let us start with the big one:
3.10 Goodwood: FRANKEL
I suspect that the betting market will end up with the top two being very much closer than it is now -8/11 and 11/8 - which is not the point of interest. This is a class race with a clash of race styles.
Frankel, the one who needs to put all his natural ability into a winning run, because he has an opponent who will gun down any weakness. The beauty of time-based ratings is that the 'weight for age' is simply reduced to WEIGHT. On that basis, Frankel is the winner. My ratings show he has 5lbs - or 2 lengths, if you prefer - to make up on his main rival, but because of the WFA scale he receives 8lbs. It is that tight between them.
CANFORD CLIFFS:
Classy horse with a deadly turn of foot. He also has a high cruising speed. Furthermore, he has no complications in his running style. He will be held up and pounce inside the final furlong.
it is for these reasons I think enough people will jump on his current price, he might even take over as favourite? Although I would suggest even money joint-favourites is more likely, with the bookies margin taken up by bets placed on the other two runners.
RAJSAMAN:
He has a good level of form coming into this race, beating Byword over 8f, and then losing out to Goldikova over 9f last time. The collateral form therefore, puts him a fair bit behind CANFORD CLIFFS, who beat Goldikova on his last run. He also has to give the same 8lbs to FRANKEL.
RIO DE LA PLATA:
Well thought of in his younger days, but always fell short when stepped up to the top level. His last run was behind CANFORD CLIFFS. He too, has to give 8lbs to FRANKEL.
Conclusion:
With this reduced field anything could happen .... but with FRANKEL in the race it is not likely to turn into a 3f sprint, unless jockey/and/or/ trainer's orders get it completely wrong and try and hold Frankel up until they are coming downhill???
One thing has been overlooked is the track? Will the hill help a flagging Frankel or help Canford Cliffs to gain the momentum he needs to overcome the weight difference? It is a big question.
Neither has run on anything other than flat or stiff tracks, with the exception of Newmarket, both in their respective 2000gns. Of the two, you would have to say Frankel performed the best.
Another similarity between these two is, on my ratings at least, their last outing was not their best, it was their previous ones that give them today's mark. All fascinating stuff, but how the race is run is what will make or break one or other.
Now unless one of the other two decide to take up the running, then slow it down ... Either way, Frankel will go off similarly to what he did in the 2000gns, if they have learnt anything from previous runs ... DON'T TIE THE JOCKEY DOWN TO INSTRUCTIONS!
Tom Queally is a young jockey who is riding the best horse he ever will, no matter if he goes on until he is fifty. With that comes the problem - fear of failure. Last time he rode to orders and it nearly cost him the race. If, I repeat, IF he was riding as the good jockey he is, he would not have gone so early?
Therefore, the race will go as follows - Frankel will be allowed to get into his stride, without too much restraint, and should go 6 lengths clear going up the hill.
Canford Cliffs will try to close before they hit the straight course, and have him in his sights for a power finish close home.
Frankel(jockey of), aware of what is likely to happen will have a breather at the point when Canford wants to close, so when they hit he straight there may be only two lengths between them. The latter supporters will believe it is their's to win.
However, now older, stronger, more race-wise horse than he was in April, so FRANKEL will push on again.
It is the gap he opens up there that decides the race. With a 6l gap and the weight concession, I believe, CANFORD CLIFS will find it just beyond him.
Another possibility is that Hughes may think that Canford Cliffs has enough pace to stick with Frankel, and still have a turn of foot at the finish. that would be a mistake, unless Canford is even more supremely gifted than we think?
It is a tactical battle that one of them will lose out, and after the race will feel they could have done/or will do, better - next time.
Whilst everything points to a Canford Cliffs victory, because all he has to do is sit and wait, pounce at the right moment and the race is his ... I just think there is something about FRANKEL that, if he handles the track, he will be the winner today?
1st - FRANKEL
Now it is not just one race, here are a few thoughts on other races.
2.00 Goodwood: FONT each way
The form comment amused me '... fair 6th at Ascot, modest over hurdles since'.
He was modest over hurdles before that race too! However, it is partly the rating he got at Ascot, but also, looking back over his form, he has won at Warwick. The track should suit?
2.35 Goodwood: RED DUKE
It ought to be beteween him and Chandlery, and the penalty gives the latter the edge. Chandlery also has a modest course win in his favour. But it usually pays to follow the winner.
3.45 Goodwood: BRIDLE BELLE each way.
Very tight race, I have no rating above any of their current marks, so whatever wins will have to improve. The selection at least matched her new mark, and is improving.
4.20 Goodwood: No selection ... a newcomer?
4.55 Goodwood: LUTINE BELL
Has a good enough draw, running well, and well ahead of current mark.
GOLDEN DESERT has course wins and is top rated, but needs to bounce back to best form. A speculative each way, given the good draw and jockey booking?
5.30 Goodwood: VALENCHA
Clear top-rated, but over 7f. No indication that 9f might suit better, so not a selection. Still could win, it is just the 2f step up is too much in my opinion. 9f, like 7f, is a specialist trip. Ideally for horses who have run well at 10f, but win at 8f .... this is a very open race?
Have a good day ...
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