WORKFORCE has it to lose ... end of?
But races of this nature are never that simple, so here is the analysis.
Ascot 4.30:
(in current betting order)
WORKFORCE:
His two runs this year have form students pondering, both over 10f. His best, and worst(17l behind Harbinger over C/D?) have been over 12f. That said, his opening defeat of Poet was not spectacular, and run in a relatively slow time. I gave him a rating at the bottom of the Group 1 scale. Then came the slightly confusing defeat by So You Think. Confusing over tactics. The pacemaker, Confront, set off at a brisk enough pace, but over 10f it was clear that Workforce was struggling a bit. So after 2f or so( I have not seen any sectionals. only visual observation) the pace dropped off. Was this their plan? Allow Workforce through on the inside on the turn for home, and use Confront as a buffer to make So You Think go wide? As I predicted, leaving So You Think to do his own thing meant he would win. It is the pattern with these horses that have no real turn of foot to just build up speed from a long way out and have enough pace at the end to make it difficult for horses to catch them. By slowing the pace down between the 2f and 4f was just what So You Think needed to run HIS race. It not only left Workforce as target, it meant he used his finishing kick to get the gap, which was to prove it was not enough.
However, the positives are he did start closing at the finish - it was only 10f - and he got my best rating for him, because the overall time was quick probably due to the opening 2f and the long run for home. Enough to put him 5lbs clear of this field, with the plus factor of his optimum trip.
Hence the opening statement ... it is his to lose?
REWILDING:
He managed to do what the above did not, and that was to get in front of So You Think on the line. That was also over 10f. He too, is probably better over 12f, even allowing for being a long way behind WORKFORCE in last year's Derby. Course and pace of the race did not suit.
Undoubtedly best when fresh, and so has plenty of time between races - 38 days since that run - and comes into this with every confidence.
In many ways his defeat of So You Think in a slow time has more merit than the above in a quick time. The reason, again comes from the farcical tactics employed. DEBUSSY - used again here - was meant to do the early pace, but it was not quick enough for So You Think, who was pulling, so Jan Vermeer took it up, but went far too quick and the field just ignored him. This left So You Think to do what he is good at ... doing his own thing. Once in his stride he had the field apparently well beaten. REWILDING, who sat at the back, made his move 2f out and gained enough momentum to pass So You Think close home. It was impressive because of the slow pace, and his target had a good lead. However, a horse with a turn of foot always looks impressive against a one-paced(relatively speaking) horse.
Despite the so-so rating for the race, this horse is the easiest to work out. He will sit at the back and attack late. The problem here is, he will not be chasing a slowing down So You Think, these are entirely different beasts?
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY:
Doubts over this horse be able to come back to the promise he held as a top 2yo. His odds on defeat did nothing but increase that this term. Nor did his Chester win for some, myself included, as it was a muddling race thanks to Harris Tweed not being ridden to his best advantage - set a strong pace and see if the others can match it? - and a slow time ensued.
However, he at last showed he still had some of his early ability when beating Midday - albeit, well assisted by the latter going for home 3f out? - but the time was reasonable, given the steady early pace, and proved that 12f was no problem.
The nature of this race will require him to be produced late on off a steady pace - set by stable companion Debussy - and on that score I do not see his pilot being the negative that others do? J O'Brien gets horses to relax and run their races. There is nothing complicated about this horse's style, and if good enough, and he will need to improve, he will go close.
NATHANIEL:
My initial thought was ...Nathaniel , what are you doing here? You have a St Leger to win!
On paper he has it to do ... but, and it is a big BUT ... he is an improving 3yo with a healthy wfa concession to put his rating right up there. Formwise, he finished second to the double Derby winner, and then went on to an impressive win over C/D in a Group 2.
Yes, there is the feeling that this crop of 3yo's are not quite the cream, and the step up in class is certain to make it tough ... but he is tough.
DEBUSSY:
Nah! Let's not waste time, eh?
Conclusion:
After Debussy has taken them along for 3f the question will be who goes on. None of them want it to be 3f dash, least of all Nathaniel, so he would be my pick to bring them into the straight.
Closely followed by St Nicholas Abbey, and Workforce. Rewilding will bide his time with his targets all in view.
If Nathaniel has got it right he will press on 2.5f out and try and outstay them.
St Nicholas Abbey will be the first to kick, and will find him difficult to pass.
Workforce and Rewilding will make their moves together, with the latter having 2l to pick up.
This is where the race is so different to chasing down So You Think, these will be hitting top gear now and I expect WORKFORCE to win going away
My ratings suggest that Workforce apart, there is only 3lbs separating the other three, and Nathaniel is in the middle. I will stick with my ratings:
1, WORKFORCE
2, ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
3, REWILDING
And Nathaniel losing nothing in defeat, and may even hold off one above for 3rd place.
However, things rarely go just as you might think, this is just my reading of it.
Have a good day.
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