Saturday 16 July 2011

IRISH OAKS

Another Classic conundrum ...

3.45 Curragh: (in current betting order)

WONDER OF WONDERS: Not my automatic choice on form, because you have to decide whether she won her race at Chester despite the way it was run ... resulting in a slow time? And then, was she unlucky to lose at Epsom because of the way it was run ... resulting in a slow time?
There is no guarantee today's race will be run that straightforward either.
On the positive side she looks like 12f suits, and will run her race. Whether that will be good enough at the third time of asking we will see.

BLUE BUNTING: If you take out her Epsom run, then I would guess she would be a strong favourite here? She won the 2000gns despite her breeding, yet at Epsom she did not confirm she truly stays 12f. There hangs the problem, it was such a muddling, stop-start sort of race that she could prove that it was just a blip. The stable says she is stronger now ... I thought she looked pretty strong at Newmarket. This more conventional track will set the record straight.

DANCING RAIN: She stepped up on her previous form to win at Epsom, that the merit of her win was overlooked because of the way it was run ... resulting in a slow time. The question with her is can she repeat that 'trick', or better still, improve on it by winning on a conventional track run at a more consistent pace? I doubt if she will be able to dictate the pace today, with multiple O'Brien runners there to set it up for the favourite, so she will need all of that courage she showed to stay in front at Epsom, and then some.

BANIMPIRE: No quirky questions to answer here. She does what it says on the label ... she is a Racehorse!
Not won at Group 1 level, in fact she failed at her only attempt. That was in the Irish 1000gns, where several of these failed also. That was over 8f, and since the she has won twice over this trip at Group 3 and Group 2 level. The latter was at Ascot where she displayed great heart to get her nose in front. In doing so she has the best of my figures over 12f by a long way, and she will be the yardstick that the others are measured by.
The one slight doubt is whether Ascot took too much out of her? She was a mare thriving on her racing, no less than 7 races by the middle of June! She has now had a month off and could be champing at the bit ... or not? We shall see.

LAUGHING LASHES: She is the slightly forgotten horse in this race. Not raced since her 3rd to Misty for Me and Together on this course, in the 1000gns. Recorded a good time in that race, and that form has stood up well. Yet she is out amongst the handicappers in the betting?
The reason is because of the doubts over her stamina. Her pedigree does not suggest she would even get 10f let alone 12f. Perhaps the stable know different? Perhaps, like BLUE BUNTING in reverse, she will defy the logic of her breeding. Certainly her proximity to Together, who was 2nd in both 1000gns puts her very much in the mix. She has clearly been kept back for this race(for whatever reason?), so if she stays ....

RUMH: She is the best of the rest, but her form - 23 lengths behind BANIMPIRE last time out - shows she has an enormous task just to get placed.

Conclusion:

BANIMPIRE and BLUE BUNTING are hard to separate, but if pressed I will go for the tough filly with the figures in the bank.

1, BANIMPIRE
2, BLUE BUNTING
3, WONDER OF WONDERS

If it is to be a shock winner then it will be LAUGHING LASHES

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