Frankel, and the secret of CAMELOT

With the Irish Derby in mind I think it is time to reveal the Ballydoyle the secret behind their winning machine.

The general perception is that when a pacemaker is in a race, to quote A. O'Brien, it makes it fair for every one to have a true run race ...
All is not as it seems. Ballydoyle puts them there to win races.

Let me explain:
Take Bullet Train and Frankel last time. Bullet Train set a strong, but steady pace with Frankel following behind. Frankel wins comfortably.
In both Classics involving Camelot pacemaker sets the pace, but Camelot is way out the back, only coming through late on. Camelot wins.

The difference, not only with above 2000gns and Derby, but the Newmarket 1000gns and the Irish 2000gns as well, that unlike Frankel's race which produced the fastest winning time on the day(relative to their respective standard times), those 4 races involving the O'Brien pacemakers did not. I will admit that Frankel being the highest rated horse in the world would be entitled to do that, and that Camelot was the quickest at Epsom with conditions allowance added(on my std times that is, note)

What does it matter you may ask?  In the Irish 1000gns it was the relatively fastest race on the card, but the winner did not come from the Irish stable. Homecoming Queen set the pace on faster ground but could not hold on. I think the Newmarket race was not meant to happen the way it did, but Ryan Moore made two decisive moves that upset the entire field. He made a quick move early on while the other jockeys were waiting for a pacemaker. That put him 4 or 5 lengths clear, and kept on. Then, knowing the others were expecting him to be coming back to the field closer to home, but the second trick Moore pulled off by pushing on before the 'bushes' and got a few more 'easy' lengths out of them. That included stablemate  Maybe. Now they have a top 2yo in Maybe who has missed out on Classic success, and I think without the Moore tricks she may well of won it.
In Ireland Moore was not available to ride Homecoming Queen, and the jockey just set a straightforward fast pace. To be fair, it had to be faster than at Newmarket because the going was quicker and the others could keep up better. However, she simply had nothing left and fell back to 5th. Despite that, because I rate by time, she still ran to her previous rating in my book.
So that is the secret that Ballydoyle have picked up, I believe, since they were told they were not racing So You Think to his best by the Australians, who were winning easily with him down under.

What you don't do is put a pacemaker in order to set the race up for the stable's expected winner, OR, more importantly, for any other horse to win - No, that would be making it a fair race for everyone?
What you do do is set a pace that destroys the rest of the field, because while they are following the pace, 'their horse' is simply getting into a rythym that means they can pass the tiring field. That also explains the comparatively slow overall times?
The key to it is they(Ballydoyle) decide not only who is going to make the pace, but more importantly, train it with that in mind. They want a horse that is still taking the field along to inside the last 2 furlongs. Daddy Long Legs did this to perfection, a 10f horse probably trained for this race as a 6 or 7f runner, knowing its stamina would keep it going for a bit longer. Astrology did a similar thing in the Derby. They do not go off at a lightning fast pace, but just enough so to keep rest of the field interested so they never get a breather in.

It is so close to 'not running to give the horse a chance of winning', so you could put up the argument to have 'pacemakers' declared as such, and therefore not able to win the race? I say 'close' to that mark, but Homecoming Queen is always the argument against, and why the field cannot just ignore an O'Brien pacemaker? That is also key. They do put very good horses in to do the pace, and it does not matter if their pacemaker wins because the field has given it too much of a lead, because it is usually the same group who own them.
However, if you have a horse is running over his right trip, and has the class to finish his race, then just sit in behind whoever is the O'Brien stable fancy at the back, and go when it goes, because they clearly do not have a great turn of foot, or at the very least, are not trained with that in mind  ... ?
I should say I will always have trouble in rating these O'Brien horses because of the slow overall times. Camelot I only rate at 120, not because he wasn't quick (at Epsom), but on that day against his OR of 121, it wasn't a standout time to rating. The 106 OR of the second tends to back that up? Which is why I differ from his BHA rating, or, for that matter, compared to Frankel's 139, and that achieved first time out! Camelot is probably the best of the early season 3yo's, but I would like him to be tested in a really strong race. Time will tell if that changes when he takes on the older horses.

This analysis does not only apply to these horses. So You Think has been beaten by horses who can keep enough back despite the way he runs, with or without a pacemaker. He keeps the field up to their work himself. A very good horse, and uses his ability that does not include a devastating turn of foot, to the maximum.

So how will Ballydoyle beat Frankel? They could try and upset his pacemaker, encouraging him to go faster than is necessary to create a fast winning performance from Frankel. The problem there is, as was seen in the 2000gns, over a mile Frankel can go at 6f pace and still have enough left to see him home. So short of physically knocking him out of his stride, I cannot see that working. When it comes to 10f races that might be different. However, before they tackle the extra distance I think they will want to be sure they can 'race' with him. By that I mean, go into races with the intention of winning. Their one tactic at the moment is to use his blistering speed over a mile. A fast run race that he can produce is better that anything else can do, so he wins.
Not that simple over 10f. If they can get him to relax over the first 4f or 5f, and then 'race' the second half, I believe we will then see Frankel as a real majestic racehorse, as opposed to being the quickest miler/greatest miler around. Indeed,  if he truly settles, 12f would not be impossible, such is his unbelievable talent.

To answer my question as to how they beat Frankel with their current tactics, over a mile they won't. However, don't be surprised if if they have So You Think trained up to do the pacemaking at Ascot on Tuesday, in a similar way to Daddy Long Legs did in the Irish 2000gns. Not a horse you could ignore out in front because of his stamina, but I doubt he will have the legs of Frankel at the finish.

At the time of writing(Sunday,17th June), the O'Brien have a couple going for the Prix Diane at Chantilly ... if you can work out who is doing the 'setting up' for who? Kissed did win from the front on her last start, at a lower level but over this trip. Up was behind the likely favourite last time over 8f, and came from the rear. I think they will reverse roles today, with Up being at the head of affairs, and hoping Kissed up good enough win. They may of course let both run to their strengths and try for a 1-2 ? I doubt if either will beat Beauty Parlour if she stays the extra 2.5f okay.

There will be many future examples I am sure. It may be worth opposing any of these if you know your selection will be held up?

Postscript - Beauty Parlour only second, BUT ....after Kissed set the strong pace, and Up (as per plan) was held up at the back ... and so too did the winner Valra. Admittedly, Up did not get the clearest of runs, but it does add weight to what I said above about the way to beat this tactical ploy of the Irish stable? Beauty Parlour deserves a lot of credit though, as she was right up with the pace throughout.
It is not quite so easy when they put in more than two runners though. However, the Irish Derby looks for all the world a penalty kick for Camelot, I wonder if any trainer will try the above counter tactic?
Monday edit:
pps - No SO YOU THINK on Tuesday, they are going with WINDSOR PALACE. I find that amusing as I think Bullet Train would beat that in a head to head race. I guess they hope to stir FRANKEL  up before the pacemaker gives way and so make him commit too early? However, not only Bullet Train keep up his gallop for long enough, EXCELLEBRATION was not able to go with FRANKEL, so what chance has Windsor Palace got of getting past?