ROYAL ASCOT -Tuesday

It looks like being a cracking start to the meeting, so here is my take on it.

Ascot 2.30 - FRANKEL

Barring mishap or injury, there is no point in looking beyond him over a mile.

EXCELLEBRATION - looks set for the runner's up berth, again! I have tried to see how team Ballydoyle can do much other than what they have tried already. A couple of possibilities; A - find a use for WINDSOR PALACE, because frankly he looks a bit redundant here, unless he tries to bustle things up at the halfway stage, thereby making Fronkel go earlier than the 2f marker, and then hope is stable companion can come with a late burst?; B- drop Excellebration right out the back and again try and hold his run until well inside the final furlong.
Both seem pretty futile given that Frankel finishes mile races strongly, has a turn of foot off a strong pace, and has few weaknesses in the temperament department.
Helmet could well be one of those fighting for the minor honours if they have him at his peak now?

Ascot 3.05 - ORTENSIA

You have to admire these Aussie horses. They rarely fail to do the business, especially first time of asking over here. Despite being a 7yo now, Ortensia seems to be in the form of her life, and come from behind style of racing will suit this race too, as there is bound to be a fast pace.
The draw may be of slight concern, but in all likelyhood they will come down the middle. Most of the pace is drawn high, but the stands rail on drying ground tends to be a bit slower, and they do have TANGERINE TREES to do the business in the middle.
Now BATED BREATH looks to have grown into a proper racehorse at last, and is my top-rated, I will take him to give the favourite the most to do. If they avoid any showers prior to this race, I do not think the ground will be an issue. However, should the pace on the stands side give those there a big advantage, I can see MASAMAH running a big race. A course winner, which is a big positive, and with a run under his belt I think he is well worth a small each way at a big price. Only third rated behind SOLE POWER, but as that one needs very fast ground to be at his best, and does not appear to like the Ascot turf as much as some, I don't see him making the frame.
I would also like to give a mention to JOY AND FUN, as the main overseas raider with a high draw could also be a danger. At 9 years of age he is a rival to Borderlescott as a stable's favourite? He is also at the top of his game right now, so could pose a real threat late on.

Ascot 3.45 - FENCING

Not too confident about my choice from three to beat the O'Brien favourite POWER, who could show he is better than his current rating suggests. Fencing carries my second highest rating, and given the rushed prep for the Guineas, followed shortly by the run in the Dante, where he appeared not to stay, I will wipe the slate and hope he shows the promise of his 2yo days in much better light, after a little break.
I also like another of the Gosden trio, GREGORIAN. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is a real plus at the moment. He has a bit to find in form, but both trips to France did not work out so well, so back on home soil and a straight track he should be there or thereabouts.
MOST IMPROVED also failed in his mission to France, but should be back on track now. However, like Gregorian, he has a high draw to consider on the round mile, which will require some luck in running?
LUCAYAN, the French raider, is also drawn out in the car park with the above two, but is a strong finisher if he takes to  Ascot.
The reason I am opposing Power is although drawn low, I can see the Ballydoyle tactics machine cominto into play here. WROTE who is drawn widest of all, and I expect him being pushed up early to take a prominent position and keep the pace very strong into the straight. Power will drop to the rear and hope to come through like he did at the Curragh. Problem here is the other horses should be in better shape now, it is up to him to show he has improved too?
I would love to stick with HERMIVAL, but I fear he will get sucked into the trap of hold his good draw position early on. Not only that,  the drying will be against him. However should they cop a heavy shower, the scrub the above, as course and going will suit better than most.

Ascot 4.25 - HEAVY METAL

That is my kind of music. Like Topspeed in the RP, I have him improving on his grade rating at Epsom on a day that had the best grade from ones I can rate. Epsom and Ascot are poles apart as far as track configuration goes, but he previously had won at Newmarket, and before that won on good to soft. This race has a habit of throwing up big price winners, and my feeling is the favourite, SIR PRANCEALOT and the second favourite DAWN APPROACH, are both a bit vulnerable.
The former was impressive in the manner he won at Sandown, but the time was pretty modest. Whether he can produce the same turn of foot with the quality of this field is the question he has to answer.
The Irish horse does not appear to have beaten anything special in any of it races, but that is not unusual. The trainer knows how good he is, so if the money comes for him as post time gets near, you can sure he is better than the bare form.
I was taken with LINES OF BATTLE's win on Irish 1000gns day. Needs to improve on bare form but looks the type to do so. LEITRE MOR was beaten that day and probably needs quicker ground to reverse placings, even if he has improved in the meantime.
ARTIGIANO also put up a good time at a modest level, but from a stable who are quite capable of knowing a good horse when they see one ... Frankie is on board!
FUNKY SOUL BROTHER ran in a good race at York, but like the favourite, the time was not that great. Stablemate ENGLISHMAN rates slightly higher, but both need to improve to get more than a place.
Among those I have no rating for IS CHRISTOFORO CULOMBO, who, on jockey bookings appears to be the O'Brien No 1, but with a similar shared ownership it probably not that important. Joseph O'Brien rode both to victory, but I think dad might have had the final say who he rides? My preference is with the Ryan Moore mount.

Ascot 5.00 - COSIMO DE MEDICI

Once again I think the favourite, AL KHAWANEEJ is a tad over-rated. I have not gone through this field in great depth, which is usually a mistake, but I was taken by my selection's win at Newmarket which at least puts him in the race on favourable handicapping terms.
The danger will come from ELYAADI who has raced in better class races, including one here behind Swingkeel. Beyond these two it is pretty wide open.

Ascot 5.35 - DYLANBURU

To be honest I did not look much beyond this one's second to Cay Verde last time out. There is nothing at first glance of that quality that stands out, and if he has shown genuine improvement he should certainly figure in the first three.
LYRIC ACE probably deserves the favourite status, as he beat Chilworth Icon at Kempton last time. That was the horse that Heavy Metal(selection for the Coventry earlier) nearly beat next time out, so clearly smart. However, all weather Kempton and uphill Ascot will require a whole lot more.
PAY FREEZE on the other hand has very good form on his York win and is the main danger to my selection.

And that is day one at Ascot ... have a good day.