DONCASTER March 30th

Yes, welcome to Part Two of the start of the 2013 Flat

Today I shall try and unravel the big handicaps, beginning with:

Doncaster 1.20; 6f Class 2 h'cap:

As always at this time of year you have little clue as to how fit these horses are. Throw in the draw as an unknown factor as to where they will race, and which side will be favoured if they split into two or even three groups. All that before you even consider how their rating sit with the 'Official' h'cap rating - 'OR'.

There are several who come into to this race who started well last season.
There are many horses that like to be up with the leaders, so the pace of the race should be spread.
Equally, there are many who, on my ratings, have a mark well ahead of their OR

Ticking all 3 boxes is;

COLONEL MAK
However, he is drawn high, along with several from the top end of the h'cap, but may be forced to be the pacemaker. Has a good 5lb  claimer on board and has a great chance if he is on the right strip of ground.

JAMAICAN BOLT
On the other side, is not nearly as well in, but is improving. Also has a 5lb claimer on board, and I can see him making the pace for the low draw horses. There are 3 big dangers on this side, and I think the winner most likely come from this side if the ground is not an issue i.e. faster on the other side?
They are;
KING OF JAZZ - Tried over further after a good run over 6f. Form fell away, which is why he is very well in here. If they go off too fast he can swoop late.
FAST SHOT - Looked really special when winning early on, but never really pushed on from that run. He too has dropped to a very winnable mark, and likely to be up there with the pacemaker.
THUNDERBALL - Fit from a recent run on the AW, which could make up the difference in not being quite so well in as the above named. Like the above, handles soft going very well indeed.

Conclusion:

COLONEL MAK improved after beating King Of Jazz in this race last year, and both are back to similar marks today. Providing there is others up with the pace amongst the high drawn, he is the one to beat. If not, I see FAST SHOT being close up to the leaders and may be get first run on the late finishers.

Doncaster 1.55; 8f Class 2 h'cap:

Only one horse has a clear advantage on my rating - EXTRATERRESTRIAL
However, although runs okay fresh, his best form is usually later in the year, particularly at AYR. No doubt he is well handicapped, but it is possible that something has improved over the winter that puts it ahead of known ratings. Unless you know that horse, this race is best left alone, with just a small EW on the above ..perhaps?

Doncaster 2.30; 6f Class 1 Listed Stakes:

Despite this not being a h'cap, the 3yo's get a hefty concession at this time of year. For me, I am just happy to see how the wonderfully consistent EFFIE B gets on against her elders. Love her to bits, but no bet.

Doncaster 3.05; 6f Class 2 LINCOLN h'cap:

The race has been delayed a week and has allowed the course to dry out a bit, still on the soft side, but not as extreme as last week would have been. There are a host of horses who are just a few lbs better of than their OR, but not outstandingly so. That includes last year's winner, Brae Hill, and Justonefortheroad. There are also several who are fit from the AW, and even more have kept this as an early season target.
Not easy therefore to be confident of anything.
MAJESTIC MYLES would leave these for dead if it was fast ground, picking up high ratings in Listed aand Group class company  .. but it isn't fast ground. If his freshness can overcome the dislike for what he is running on then he has a chance, but his big odds are there because nobody thinks he will?
It has happened before ... watch this space?

DUBAI DYNAMO scrapes in at the bottom, and is fit from a couple of runs on the AW. Not out of it, although this top class end of h'caps can find him out, but this is early season and fitness counts a lot?

Doncaster 4.15; 10.27f Class 4 h'cap

I was quite taken by BROCKFIELD on his last start, and if he carries that forwards into this season , he has a chance here. But there may be others in a similar category, so probably a race just to get the notebook out?

Doncaster 4.50; Division two of above;

Again a mixed bunch and not a race that anything caught my eye. Indepub ran some better races than expected last season, but not enough to say he is up to winning this.

Doncaster 5.25; 10.27f Class 5 for Apprentice riders:

I like to see these longer distance races put on for the up and coming jockeys, as it gives them time to settle into a race. McNiff could be in for a fist and last race double if he pulls it off earlier? His mount does have a chance on best form, so for interest only, Oneofapear would be my choice..

Lots of good racing elsewhere, but the Lincoln always has that fascination for an early season handicap.

Have a good day ..