Doncaster ... AGAIN! Will this Flat season ever get started? Answer, Yes - Big time next weekend with some classic trials. In the meantime, we have a 6f sprint that is only slightly different to the one a fortnight ago?
So to begin again ...
Doncaster 3.30: 6f Class 2 handicap.
The selection EW is the same as 2 weeks ago - COLONEL MAC.
However, similar dilemmas to last time, he is drawn away from the pace of the race and principal dangers among the top class runners.
Subtle changes make up for that. This time he is drawn in the No5 stall, putting him over towards the far rail, where the winning group came last time. However, one of the likely pace setters is drawn 11, Hamza, and there should be little problem of tacking across to the main group in the early stages and get taken well into the race. The only problem is Tax Free. He is also a prominent front runner and is drawn nearer the stand side rail. If he take a select group to that rail, and that strip is favoured, not only is he a danger on top form, hold up horses on that side could be the undoing for the selection. More about those later.
The going has changed from last time too. The winner, Thunderball, will not be so well suited by this change,nor by his 6lbs rise in the weights. He is in good form though.
However, whatever rain fell yesterday will soon dry out with the warmer breeze picking up. The going stick of 8.3 suggests that it will not be far from verging on the fast side of good by 3.30 if the sun comes out?
The selection has A Mullen on board this time, but even without the apprentice allowance from last time he has a lot in hand on his best form, and should strip fitter this time. He has the bonus of being dropped another 1lb from last time. He will not mind the change in the going either. Depending on the instructions given to the jockey will decide how the race will turn out. If enough runners head for the far rail, and there are some prominent runners on his inside, then it might pay to go that way? The danger is, apart from himself, the others may not have the pace to keep up with the main group. I hope the bulk of the field sticks to the middle of the track. At least that way you are close enough come the final furlong to put up a challenge. It is no good being on the best handicapped horse in the race but having too much to do to reach the leaders.
Dangers? Several, Particularly those that came out of the Listed 6f two weeks ago. That did have a better class field, but not absolute 'top class'. Even so, they do carry a threat, despite that race running slower than the h'cap earlier.
JACK DEXTER - the winner, has gone up 7lbs. On my figures, with the increase in weight, both real and relative to the others, does not give him an outstanding chance. But he might improve for his first run? He is drawn 9, but a hold up horse close to pacesetter Hamza, which should be ideal for him. Would have preferred it softer though.
OUR JONATHAN is drawn 12, the other side of the pace setter. He represents a very positive danger having won off a higher mark than today. He will also like the better ground, and could easily turn around the form from last time on better terms with the above, even though he was only third.
HITCHENS is a stable companion to the selection, and is drawn 8. He is a hold up horse and in his day has been a classy sprinter. Not quite on the downgrade yet, but his best is probably behind him now? Usually takes a race or two to get fully wound up, but his fourth behind the two above shows he is not far away?
That group show why the main threat may come down the middle of the course, and Hamza has the class to lead right into the final furlong. With hold up horses between the 'Colonel' and and Hamza, he will get first run on the others and go head to head with Our Jonathan to the line. If I am right, he has a bit over that one as he is receiving 11lbs.
As I mentioned earlier, If TAX FREE comes to the stand's rail, the he may bring with him a whole new set of problems:
MOVE IN TIME drawn 18
THUNDERBALL drawn 20
SHROPSHIRE dawn 17
DUKE OF FIRENZE drawn 16
PRODIGALITY drawn 13
All of these need to improve on what they have shown so far, but it is not a big gap that a strip of faster ground would not make up for? The latter one would probably stick with the main group in the middle though?
The selection is still a solid EW chance if the race pans out right, but Our Jonathan represent the biggest danger.
Yes, there are other races, but I decided not to spread my time over too many race, okay?
If the Newbury Classic trial looks interesting enough I may do a blog on Friday. Otherwise Saturday next weekend.
Have a good day ...
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