Newmarket 18th April

I will treat today's Craven Stakes with due caution, but also great interest. My horse to follow for this season is DUNDONNELL,so to see his return to action is an absolute joy for me. Especially as his trainer, (edit)Roger Cahrlton has been quite bullish about his progress from two to three years of age. That is the positive side of the upcoming race

However, the caution comes because conditions for today's race are not ideal.

The going has been on he easy side of good but the going stick has moved slightly in the right direction, from 7.8 to 7.9 since yesterday. Ideally at Newmarket I would have liked it to have been around 8.5, as a drying day would push it close to Good to Firm by 4.05 this afternoon. My going allowance from yesterday mirrors this at 0.48sec per furlong, which is certainly on the easy side of good.
(edit) Since writing the going has changed to Good to Firm, and the going stick reads 8.5?

The next thing which is not ideal is the fact there are only 4 runners, including TORANADO, who beat him in similar circumstances last season. Add to that there is a useful stable companion there to confuse things further. HAVANA GOLD could be the one that is trained up to the moment to win this, or at least ensure the race is set up for its stable mate. But if it is being aimed at one of the other Guineas races, in Ireland France,or Germany. then it too will not want to lose its edge with a hard race here. All three need a decent race pace to bring them to full fitness for the big one in two and a half weeks time. Finally there is the Godolphin trained runner TAWHID who was nicely progressive last season, winning the Horris Hill stakes at Newbury on his final start. Given that there are only 4lbs separating the four on official figures, you might think it would be a close run thing with another dozen horses around them run at a proper racing pace? I challenge the official figures, but even so, a decisive winner here will certainly earn the 2nd favourite position it will undoubtedly be promoted to in the main race?

Tactics will play a major part, but as I said above, a 2 furlong sprint will not do much in sorting out who will come out best in the real thing, or boost their fitness levels. When Toranado won last time his jockey was pleased that his tactics worked. I am happy that they were sufficiently worried that they had to think about Dundonnell enough to apply the dance routine(slow, slow,etc)  tactics in order to secure that win. I get the feeling the Hannon camp are still worried, lining up the excuse of the 3lbs weight concession, and surprisingly, the trip being too short for Toranado this season, should he get beaten today? There was no disguising that they thought he was superior to Havana Gold though.  So reading between the lines, my guess is that it will be Havana Gold to lead out and try and set the race up for Toranado as they approach the final furlong. Where Tawhid fits into that is anybody's guess at this time of year, as was seen yesterday, see below.

In the Nell Gywn stakes, which is the fillies 1000 Guineas trial you had a horse officially rated 78, which in terms of class is an average for a Class 4 handicapper, and yet has improved over the winter to pop up and be a stunning winner three grades higher, and in the relatively fastest time of the day! HOT SNAP has been promoted to the new favourite of the 1000 Guineas, and trained by Frankel's trainer Henry Cecil, you can understand why? However, I would urge caution about taking short odds about her, as indeed I would about today's winner. How many horses in that field were fit and ready to make the overall pace the same as it will be on May 5th? Then, every runner will be out to win it, so to produce the same turn of foot again, as she showed yesterday will be that much harder, and the buzz factor on the big day is asking a lot for a horse only having her third start?

The second fastest race came in the 'Free Handicap' half an hour earlier. It is only 'Listed' event, so a grade down from these major trials, but was won quite impressively by Garswood, who the trainer, Richard Fahey thought very highly of beforehand. It is worth noting that Alhebayeb, who TAWHID beat last season in the Horris Hill, could only manage 4th. But as Hot Snap has shown, improvement over the winter can be more important than 2 year old form alone, if it is of sufficiently great, and of a high quality?

So where does that leave me with regards to this race today? Well improvement that Gosden has talked of, on top of Dundonnell's impressive York win last season( on ideal fast conditions), makes him of the highest order in my book. If that is the case, then I feel today's going should not inconvenience him enough to stop him showing his class. A false run race can undo even top class horses, so for that reason it is not a race to bet on. But that is my only doubt about him winning today, but even so I think he will show he is very capable to do better next month. So, with a solid race behind him, and given fast ground and a fast pace at Newmarket on May 4th, I expect great things from him. Dawn Run be warned!

Not much to say about the rest of the card really. The 3yo 10f race earlier will further test 2yo form against would be Hot Snap's? The 6f sprint always throws up a good horse to follow, but Move In Time will put its fitness against some top class horses, which is way different to Class 2 h'cappers? It is a little more open than usual, but old favourites Hawkeyethenoo and Tiddliwinks are both capable fresh, but I like Angels Will Fall if it fulfills early promise last season, now it is a 4yo.

Have a good day ...