Ascot 3.05:
(in betting order)
SAJJHAA: She had Music Show behind her when 2nd to Midday last time, and she should come on for that run. That was over 10f. Previously beat Aspect Of Love in a Group 3 race in Italy over 8f, which concluded her 2010 campaign. That gained revenge on that filly from the run before, when she was 2nd and I'm A Dreamer in 3rd. Both of these races over today's trip of 8f. On that basis you would say she is a worthy favourite.
The nagging doubt has to be the going. She has had two poor runs, one in Snow Fairy's Oaks, where she did not stay, and the other on good to firm going.
SETA: She opened her season with a smart Listed win at Goodwood over 8f, beating Anna Salai. Probably got the run of the race on a course where it is a speedy run to the line. This different, although she did win a Listed 8f event at Sandown last season, where she had Chachamaidee behind. Both these wins were on fast going.
I'M A DREAMER: From winning a couple of Class 4 races early last season, then got beaten when stepped up to Listed level. Tried again in a Listed handicap where she finished close up behind Sajjhaa, and you might have thought that was her ceiling.
Not a bit of it! Her debut over 9f in a Group 3 at Newmarket she absolutely blitzed a smart field, which included Sea of Heartbreak(who ran the smart Timepiece close on Monday) 2nd, with Chachamaidee and Field Day further back. She has clearly improved, big time!
MUSIC SHOW: She had a very good season last year, including a Group 1 success over Spacious. Beaten in both the English and Irish 2000gns, although very close up in the latter, and rounding off with a close up 4th in the Sun Chariot Stakes, against her elders.
At first glance you could say she is not the same horse in her two runs so far this season? However, the first was against the colts, and the second was over 10f, which probably stretched her stamina too far? More importantly, she has yet to run on her favoured fast ground.
LOLLY FOR DOLLY: In previous blogs I have made the point that this horse has two different levels of running. On soft or heavy going she would hold her own in Group 1 company, on fast ground she barely gets a rating for Listed class. Ascot fast ground is a bit more forgiving, but even so, she was beaten 5l in a listed handicap here, behind Timepiece. Without a cloudburst suddenly appearing, she will struggle in this.
ANNA SALAI: She was favourite for the race won by Seta, and on a stiffer track it is hard to see why the two are so far apart in the betting? She was just ahead of Music Show in the Irish 2000gns, but well back behind her at this meeting last year, which concluded her season.
It is obvious that much was expected of her first time out, despite the long lay off? Will surely improve for the run, and unless she has an'Ascot thing', she will be better suited by this course.
DEVER DREAM: Trying 8f for the first time here, this is a hard track to step up in trip. Finished behind Perfect Tribute over 7f at Lingfield, a race run in a quick time, and although her run did not peter out through lack of stamina, she would have to step up to be involved in this. If the extra furlong adds to any improvement then she is no forlorn hope. The question is will it?
CHACHAMAIDEE: Likeable horse, but does seem to find even well contested Listed races just beyond her. Beaten 7l in the Group 3 race won by I'm A Dreamer, went on to win a Class 3 over 7f, sort of makes my point?
JACQUELINE QUEST: Stable companion to the above. Disqualified from winning the 1000gns, and never really looked like getting anywhere near that level of form since? Ran well enough at the meeting last year, finishing just ahead of Music Show.
Started out in a Class 3 at Leicester in what should have been a confidence booster, instead got slammed by the heavily pregnant Saddlers Bend ... where do you go from there? Not straight into a Group 2 I would have thought?
FIRST CITY: Well behind Seta first time out, but a much improved next time. Close 2nd in a Group 3 at Epsom over 9f, which certainly gives him a better chance than the odds suggest. Good runs at Epsom and Goodwood might suggest that Ascot is not her track, but three runs here she has always done okay, without actually winning. However the best form has been on 'good' or slower.
FIELD DAY: Comfortably beat Chachamaidee over course and distance last season. Followed that with a 2nd in a Group 3 at Deauville. Probably ran better than finishing position in a Group 1 at Longchamp rounded off last season. Unfortunately two run this season have not so good. Dropping back to a trip twice successful at last season, so there could be a case for improvement.
SHAMANDAR: Not sure to appreciate 8f on breeding, but did stay on behind Hawkeyethenoo over 7f here, which was her first run since October 2009. Sure to improve with a 5 week break, but this is a stiff ask.
Won a Listed race here as a 2yo, so might have gone onto better things as a 3yo. As it is, starts this season in a Class 2 handicap, so it is difficult to work out what her astute trainer might be planning for her? Foolish to dismiss out of hand.
FONTLY: Close up 3rd to Law of the Range(who won again on Saturday) over course and distance on first run. That was a handicap, not so good when stepped up to Listed class next time. In any other Listed race she might struggle to not finish last. But with strong course form, it might just give some hope to her supporters.
Conclusion: This is a tight race to call. Official rating range from 112(Music Show) down to 99(Fontley), so as a Group 2 it is pretty weak, with the majority falling around Listed class marks. It gives hope to those improving, and those stepping down from Group 1 level, which is why it is tricky to analyse. Fortunately, my time ratings will give a clearer picture?
( These ratings adjusted from the class of race obtained)
MUSIC SHOW - 130
SAJJHAA - 123
I'M A DREAMER -120
CHACHAMAIDE -120
SETA -114
Therefore MUSIC SHOW is to improve for the better going and more suitable .
Because of the going I would favour I'M A DREAMER to be the main danger.
As a possible big price ew, SHAMANDAR to improve beyond its current rating ... Why else would Haggis risk ruining a good handicap mark by running in this??
On to the other races:
Ascot 2.30: CODEMASTER
Ascot 3.45: SO YOU THINK - not on ratings but on hype ..errr, sorry, HOPE ... he's in my TTF!
Ascot 4.25: BRONZE PRINCE -I expect a gamble afoot, and there are not many well rated horses drawn high. That was the place to be yesterday, and providing they haven't done any watering 'adjustments', it may be the same today. In saying that, there will be a large group go to the far rail, as a saver, SOORAH is the one to beat drawn low.
Ascot 5.00: FIRE LILY - again, the draw swings it away from VOCATIONAL
Ascot 5.35: WINTER'S NIGHT- but BLESSED BIATA is close on last season's best.
Have a good day ...
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