So I shall skip over much of the splendid racing today and just concentrate on the St Jame's Palace Stakes.
3.45 Ascot:
( in betting order)
FRANKEL: Repeating what I wrote before the 2000gns, the only horse to beat Frankel is Frankel himself ... However, his tactics of blazing off doing his own thing will not come as a surprise to his opponents, and nor, if we believe what has been said, will Frankel change his style in any way. Somehow I find the latter hard to believe 100%. If he is to win better races further down the road he has got to even out the fractions better. If you go 11.5secs per furlong for the first 4f, but then slow to 15secs for the last 2f, then other very good horses will simply swamp him for speed ... if they are close enough??? Today the opposing riders will have a ready made pace setter behind Frankel to keep the gap down to 10 or 12 lengths with 3f to go ... Well you do the maths ... 1 sec = 5.5 lengths ... the field closing at 2secs faster than Frankel is finishing for the final 2f??? It is not a forgone conclusion. Certainly not at 1/3!
EXCELBRATION: Easy winner of the German 2000gns, after finishing 4l second to an under-performing Frankel in the guineas prep race. Frankel aside, he beat a 94 rated Shropshire by 6l, and that did nothing to add to that form next time. It is difficult to make a strong case that the German race was little more than listed form. The 2 runners that have raced since, both well beaten admittedly, but cannot have improved much. Point Blank was 2nd behind a French horse who was previously well beaten in an apprentice race, so as Class 3 races go, pretty poor. The other runner is our 'own' Casual Glimpse(beaten 17l) went on to finish last behind Hooray(beaten 12l), and that was well beaten by Frankel previously.
Clearly this horse is better than rubbish, but even without Frankel, these are not rubbish, so finishing 2nd is not a given either.
DREAM AHEAD: If you ignore three things, then this represents the biggest threat to Frankel. Oozes class, good cruising speed, will like the going, and has the next Official Rating to Frankel ...
But...
He has not run yet as a 3yo - Has he trained on?
Without a prep run - This is a tough ask first time out?
He got thrashed by Frankel over 7f on his last run - Will he stay a fast 8f?
Ignore those 3 question marks and there could be an upset?
WOOTTON BASSETT: Had a difficult run last time, but not beaten far despite going off too fast to get across from a bad draw. If he sets a steady pace behind Frankel he is probably the biggest threat to Frankel. Not necessarily for himself to win, but to keep the rest of the field in touch.
Not a forlorn hope by any means. He races the way Frankel SHOULD(note to Tom Queally), that is quickening up closer to home which leaves the opposition less time to respond. The distance is no problem and has been waiting for any ease in the going. On the pick of his 2yo form he could be a big danger if Frankel burns out. His French 2000gns form has not been advertised as being one of the stronger renewals of that race, so it will be down to how much he has come on for the race
DUBAWI GOLD: He has had a couple of tough races this season. Tough to close on Frankel in the Guineas, and keep Native Khan at bay. The latter did the form no harm in the Derby either. He then had a go at Roderick O'Connor in Ireland, again staying on well. This stiff Ascot 8f could be just what he needs. It just depends on whether the other races have taken their toll, as well as whether he is up there with higher rated. Again, a Frankel burnout leaves the door wide open for a staying on finisher. Not out of it.
GRAND PRIX BOSS: Mmmmm ... dangerous to dismiss a top Japanese runner. No way of rating his form chance, but a top 2yo being aimed at this race, probably with other European races in mind to enhance its stud value, has got to be taken seriously. I mean SERIOUSLY!!
They may have been hoping that our dry spring would have continued a little longer, but 8.9 down the middle of the track is hardly more than the easy side of good, even by Ascot standards(which are different - 10.1 was good to firm here, at Bath that was rock hard firm earlier this year?), and with a warm, dry, day in prospect, I would think and stickiness will have gone come 3.45pm.
Not the going that will beat him, but the straight track will be a shock?
ZOFFANY: The last of the serious challengers. Did well first time out over 7f, but 8f should not be a problem on breeding. The big negative is that he did not perform well on his last visit here. Ascot has that effect on some horses, but given the benefit of the doubt that it was a one off thing, he is a serious player if everything falls into place.
NEEBRAS: Not really up to this level on form, and it is difficult to see him pick up a place either as most of the field will be doing that, but with a stronger chance of sneaking a win.
REROUTED: If he is in their as pacemaker to Frankel, I think they have picked the wrong horse? He couldn't keep up with him for 2 furlongs last time, so even if he is rousted along to maximum effect he will probably only manage a furlong this time. His best effort to help Frankel would be to trip the rest of the field up as he disappears backwards!
If running on his own merits, then similar comments apply as to the above. Best bet for last place?
Conclusion: FRANKEL has it to lose, But also has it to win spectacularly.
Ideally, steadied until halfway, put in three 11secs furlongs and coast home by 12 lengths.
Repeat the Guineas trick and he will be lucky to scramble home by more than a length, worse, lose it! The bookies are not daft in offering money back if he wins by more than 4l? Just look at previous offers. They are expecting a repeat of the 2000gns, only with better horses in behind.
I will leave you to make your own mind up on the remainder. I have just highlighted the strengths and weaknesses. Personally I am an idealist ... ???
On the rest of the card:
Ascot 2.30: GOLDIKOVA - Best bet of the day at odds against.
Ascot 3.05: STAR WITNESS(probably) - Aussie sprinters have a great record here
Question marks against - Kingsate Native; will he give his running?
Question marks against - Sole Power; did not run well here last time, and the going?
Question marks against - Overdose; is he as good as he was?
Question marks against - Astrophysical Jet; not convincing form last time?
Question marks against - Bridgtown; unknown quantity, needs to handle the occasion?
Question marks against - Swiss Diva; tough ask first time out?
On the other hand;
PROHIBIT is running well.
SWEET SANETTE is a Japanese runner, folly to ignore.
HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN 3yo from the American Wesley Ward yard, and they have previous.
However, my best ew for the race is: MAR ADENTO (each way)
The stiff 5f on drying ground will suit ideally(see earlier Chantilly blog for more details). Comparative odds with Prohibit are unbelievable, as there has been only nostrils between them on their last 2 runnings. Strong pace guaranteed. No draw bias as the fastest ground is down the middle. Pace on either wing with Rose Blossom low and Overdose high. Just needs luck in running?
Ascot 4.25: POWER - Clear top-rated, but a race notorious for springing a surprise?
Ascot 5.00: VEILED - Again, not straightforward regards ratings, but weight and deputy Ahern combination look good?
Ascot 5.35: FREDERICK ENGELS - Much closer rated in this, but he may have come good at the right time?
Have a good day ...
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