Summary: Difficult to be sure at this stage, and I may seek an amendment after the 48 hour declarations!
1st - BLUE BUNTING
2nd - HAVANT
3rd - CHRYSANTHEMUM
4th - WONDER OF WONDERS
The following to upset the top order:
KHAWLAH with a run. MISTY FOR ME if she stays. SHOW RAINBOW if she is a phenomenom.
Now we have the final declarations, and presumably, the runners barring mishaps?
Not surprising I lose Chrysanthemum out of my top 3, and with Khawlah defecting to the French Oaks(although I have yet to see the entries for that)?, and Show Rainbow sticking to sprinting.
Which leaves only MISTY FOR ME to be put into the mix. On pure class she will beat most of these, even if she does not stay the full 12f. The Newmarket 1000gns is fine as a stepping stone to Oaks success because of the time gap. The Irish equivalent looks more like an afterthought?
There is an awful lot of crap written about the O'Brien horses improving massively on their first run. To even suggest that Aiden O'Brien sent Misty For Me 17 lengths short of condition over her stable companion Together for the more valuable, and more prestigious race, is just laughable.
Personally I think the very strong winds made conditions to run a normal race very tough indeed.
Two horses who come out of it with great credit are Frankel and Hooray. Both kept on despite setting a strong pace, the latter to less extent as she probably did not stay the trip? However, I will be amazed if she does not win on the same card tomorrow?
Those that tried to go with the pace, or pulled hard, paid the price and were eased down when their chances were gone. As with most of these top class horses, it will be a long season and jockeys would have been fully aware of this?
Misty For Me may well have been a bit slow in coming to hand, but not to the extent of 17 lengths behind her less fancied stable companion. But had she run into the position that the admirable Together did, she may well have by-passed the Irish 1000gns in favour of a proper tilt at the Oaks. In which case she would be the at the top of the betting order? Instead, she has another run which should bring her to peak condition now.
So where do I place her in this final line up:
1st - BLUE BUNTING: For reasons fully explained in the earlier preview, in short; she ran in the 1000gns as a prep for this. It was her first run so she will improve for that. She is bred to stay, so he will improve for that. Winning the Guineas was a bonus, and almost irrelevant, but a bonus. The rating is not great, but give her 8lbs improvement for the run, and at least the same again for the step up in trip and that puts her in the mid 120's. That figure is my speculation, but not unreasonable one, given it was clearly not expected to win the Guineas. Breeding alone suggests it will be better over further, and that is backed up by the finish on the climb to the line. So a 14lbs+ improvement is by no means out of the question? If there is a possible chink it is Tattenham Corner ... Will she handle the downhill? It will not be on the very fast ground they had at Newmarket, and it is a question many have to answer. The smaller field should enable her to get into a good position to use her speed up the straight.
I will be surprised if she does not progress beyond this as the season goes on.
2nd - MISTY FOR ME: For the reasons explained above. Namely, I believe Plan A was to win the 1000gns if possible, then be cherry ripe for this. Plan A scuppered by the nature of the race. On to Plan B - Go to the Curragh, stripping fitter, and ready to win. That achieved, assess how she is. If she appears to thrive, rather than needing a break(it is a long season, remember) ... Back to Plan A.
She tops my ratings, but two things stop her from being my selection; less improvement to come from her last because of the shorter time frame; doubts over the step up in trip. When these two have pulled clear, I think she will lose out on both these counts.
3rd - HAVANT: Needs to handle the occasion and settle in the race, but given she pulled hard in that Newmarket race, she kept going well with her tank empty and against the wind. Trip should not be a problem. If she has had no problems by the time they leave the stalls, then the number three berth is there for the taking as she is way better than the rest.
4th - WONDER OF WONDERS: If she won her last race despite the slow early pace I will have to revise my opinion. But as it stands, she has too much ground to make up on those above, and may be lucky to hold off Zain Al Boldan for 4th.
Nothing is written in stone. Horses can, and do, improve spectacularly. I am just assessing what we know so far. I am not even adding betting comments, you make your own mind up on that. I will just enjoy the race and hope my best horse wins.
Have a good day.
No comments:
Post a Comment